Weekly Preview: Sony Open

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae CC
Honolulu, HI

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii, as the first full field event of 2021 takes place. Just like this past week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, most of the players in the field are teeing it up on Tour for the first time in weeks, if not months. If last week was any indication, expect most of the golfers to pick up where they left off. Justin Thomas, the reigning Official Money list leader, started strong with a nice check, as did Harris English, whose surge continued with his first win in eight years.

As for this week, while there is still a lot of uncertainty about how these guys will react off the long layoff, we can take comfort in knowing there is a ton of course history in play. With that said, there aren't a lot of high-end players with great track records in the field. Actually, there aren't a lot of high-end players at all. There are a few, but most of the elite players are taking this week off. This looks like one of those spots where one of the not-so-elites with a good track record could find his way to the winner's circle.

LAST YEAR

Cameron Smith shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Brendan Steele.

FAVORITES

Webb Simpson (12-1)

Already a big change from last week as there are no golfers with single-digit odds to win. Simpson is arguably the best player in the field this week and his track record here is pretty solid, which makes him the easy choice as the favorite. The problem is, he only managed a T17 against a short field this past week and while he is 10-for-10 in cuts made, he's never won this event. He deserves to be the favorite, but I don't think the value is there this week.

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

Morikawa was headed in the right direction this past week before a final-round 73 derailed any chance at a win. With that said, three solid rounds to start 2021 was a good sign for things to come. Morikawa has played this event just once, resulting in a T21 last year. Against a full field, however, his odds doesn't provide much value.

Harris English (14-1)

Look how far English has come over the past 18 months. English's PGA Tour career got off to a great start, but he hit some trouble soon after. He has worked his way back however, and after last week's win, it's safe to say he's all the way back. The question now is, how high does he go? The fact that he's among the favorites this week leads me to believe the oddsmakers believe in him. His track record here is a bit scattered, and it's always hard coming back the week after a big win, so unfortunately, the value isn't here for English.

THE NEXT TIER

Joaquin Niemann (20-1)

We start to see some good value as Niemann nearly beat a much better field this past week at the TOC and we're still getting 20-1. The negative is that he's only played here once, and it resulted in a T57 last year. With that said, one start is not enough to form a full opinion, and perhaps he was just off. He hasn't missed a cut this season and appears to be in top form, which makes him a solid option at this price.

Cameron Smith (25-1)

This pick goes against the momentum theory, as Smith did not play well this past week at the TOC. However, before that performance he was on a roll, so perhaps he needed to shake off some rust. That's what I'm hoping anyways, as at 25-1, there is some value here. I'm generally against taking the defending champion, but perhaps getting back to the Sony is what Smith needs to get back on track.

Ryan Palmer (30-1)

Palmer has a lot going for him this week. He's coming off a campaign in which he earned $2.7 million, and he's already posted two top-10s this season, including a T4 this past week at the TOC. In addition, his track record in this event is pretty solid. Palmer won here in 2010 and finished T4 last year. At 30-1, there's plenty of value.

LONG SHOTS

Matt Kuchar (40-1)

It's been a while since Kuchar was considered a "long shot," but he's reaching that stage in his career. With that said, he's good enough to get the job done from time-to-time. Although I don't think he has the staying power he used to, I think he can still put four rounds together. This looks like a spot where he could do just that, and he did win here only two years ago.

Marc Leishman (50-1)

It's seems odd to see Leishman this far down the chart, but his play over the past year was a bit erratic. With that said, he still has a lot of upside in any given week and he's played well enough here -- a T3 in 2019 and a T5 in 2014 -- to make me think he can if everything falls into place.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - For those that that didn't use him during that fall and those that don't feel like saving him for the Phoenix Open or Wyndham Championship, this looks like a good spot to deploy Simpson. I don't like his short odds to win, but I can't argue with his prospects in this format.

Moderately-owned Pick: Ryan Palmer - As mentioned previously, Palmer looks primed, and he is bound to gain some attention from OAD players. The field isn't very strong and Palmer has both form and course history in his favor, making him a very tempting pick in this format.

Lightly-owned Pick: Charles Howell III - There are a handful of really good options this week, which means that Howell's vanilla game won't draw much attention. If you are looking for someone to cash a check this week and maybe provide a bit of upside, Howell is your guy. He has never missed a cut here in 19 tries.

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - Perhaps there aren't many that would be considering Matsuyama this week after his poor performance at the TOC, but he is a big name and he's currently top-5 on the odds chart. People will think about using him here, but I would advise against it. Not only is his form off, his track record here is poor, with zero top-10s in seven tries.

Last Week: Patrick Reed - T21 - $75,000

Season Total: $1,363,888

This Week: Ryan Palmer - There are a lot of good options this week -- Niemann and Leishman to name a couple others -- but Palmer has too much going for him. My only fear is that he's going to be on a majority of teams in my leagues, but hey, it's early, and focusing on your bankroll is still more important than differentiating at this point.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Joaquin Niemann ($10,900)
Middle Range: Marc Leishman ($9,500)
Lower Range: Henrik Norlander ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: N/A

Streak: 2

This week: Charles Howell III - All streaks come to an end, but Howell's streak of 19 consecutive cuts should live on this week. Now that I think about it, this streak could live on forever if he retires before missing a cut here. Anyhow, Howell doesn't appear to be losing much as he ages, and he's always been very steady, so there's no reason to think he suddenly forgets how to get around this course.