Weekly Preview: RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC

With the Masters in the rearview mirror, the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. 

Before we get to that, I feel we should reflect on what we saw at Augusta. Two major storylines sprouted as the week went on, one involving Tiger Woods and the other Scottie Scheffler. While Tiger's trek is amazing, I feel there's nothing more to add at this point. It was great to see him get through four rounds, and hopefully that sets the stage for him to play in the 150th Open Championship this summer at St. Andrews. 

As for Scheffler, there's plenty left to say, because no one is entirely sure what we are seeing right now. I wrote this past week that a win at the Masters would turn a heater into something else altogether, and here we are. So, what is it? What he's doing is beyond a hot streak at this point, but it's still too early to proclaim Scheffler 'the next big thing.' We've seen this before with guys like Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and others. These guys were and are great, and when they first started rolling they looked like the next Tiger. None of them really got there, though, and the problem now is that there are so many great players out there that's it's nearly impossible to maintain a level of dominance. Look at Jon Rahm. He was No. 1 in the world as recently as a few weeks ago and has constantly been the betting favorite, yet he's done little so far in 2022. So, how long do we wait before we declare Scheffler a better golfer? Not just right now, but overall? Rahm is still the favorite to win the next major, and the fact Scheffler does not occupy that spot leads me to believe that the public still sees his recent run as a heater and not a changing of the guard. If I'm honest, I'm not sure they're right.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Stewart Cink shot and final-round 70 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Harold Varner III and Emiliano Grillo.

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (14-1)

I'll start by saying the odds this week are a little more reasonable, but still not favorable enough at the top. I just don't see value in a win bet of anything less than 18-1 unless there are extenuating circumstances. As for Thomas, he looks like a decent play, as he showed played well at the Masters and has two top-10s at Harbour Town in three starts. At this number, though, there's simply not enough value to make a play.

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

I could simply copy the breakdown for JT and put it here. Morikawa has a decent chance to win this week, as he seems to be getting back on track and notched a top-10 in one of his only two starts here. At these odds, though, it just doesn't make sense to bet on it. If he had a stout track record here things might be different, but his best finish at Harbour Town was his T7 last year.

Cameron Smith (16-1)

We're getting closer to the range where you could consider making a play. There's no doubting Smith's game at this point, but I have to wonder how he will respond after collapsing on the back nine Sunday at Augusta. Smith's meltdown was there for the whole world to see and there was no hiding it. To his credit, he did manage to regroup before the end of the round. Maybe that's a sign that he will be fine this week, but at this price, I wouldn't bet on it.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (20-1)

There are three golfers with these odds this week, the other two being Matt Fitzpatrick and Dustin Johnson. While those are both decent options, Cantlay appears to be the best of the bunch. Cantlay made the cut at the Masters but failed to play well after that. While his failure on the weekend was a disappointment, the made cut was a positive sign. That, combined with his history here -- three top-10s in four starts -- is enough to recommend a play at this price.

Corey Conners (25-1)

Just 12 months ago, Conners was in the same class as Scheffler. A lot sure has changed since, but Conners has a ton of potential of his own. Although he hit a bit of a rough patch over the past few months, he has shown signs that he's ready to contend again on a weekly basis. Conners' results at Harbour Town is a bit scattered, but he finished top-25 in his last two starts here, including a T4 in 2021.

Webb Simpson (30-1)

Simpson finished T35 at the Masters, and while his form doesn't appear great, there are signs that he's coming around. This week will be a true test, because if he's as close as I think he is, he will find himself in contention. Simpson's track record here is among the best in the field, with four top-10s in 12 starts, including a win in 2020 and a runner-up in 2013.

LONG SHOTS

Harold Varner III (50-1)

Varner has been on the brink of a PGA Tour win for a few years, and perhaps that propelled him to his first international victory earlier this year. Now, with any luck, that win overseas will result in a win on this side of the pond. His play hasn't been great since he wound up in the winner's circle, but he's showing signs of coming around, posting a T23 at Augusta. One of Varner's close calls on the PGA Tour came here last year when he finished runner-up.

Anirban Lahiri (125-1)

Lahiri nearly won THE PLAYERS two starts ago and posted a T13 in his next start, so why can't he get the job done here? The deck is stacked against him, but outplayed the odds in each of his last two starts and I see no reason why he can't do that again. His track record here is not good, but he's on a heater right now. The only question is, will it continue?

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - My sense is that the public is growing impatient with Thomas, as he's always in the mix but has not come out on top in a while. It feels like there is more confidence in Morikawa at the moment, so I would expect him to be the most popular option this week. I won't be making this play because I want to save Morikawa for a major, but I can't argue with it if you do.

Moderately-owned Pick: Corey Conners - The mid-tier range is bound to have plenty of players in it, but Conners appears to be the best of the bunch. You don't have to worry about saving him for a major, his form is solid and he has played well on this track.

Lightly-owned Pick: Si Woo Kim - With a lot of quality options to consider, you likely won't see many OAD players on Kim. However, there's a case to be made here. He can struggle at times, but he played some great golf at the Masters. Consistency has always been an issue with Kim, but when he's hot he can deliver and even contend. His history here mimics that, as he has missed two cuts in five starts but has also notched a runner-up and a T12.

Buyer Beware: J.J. Spaun - Usually this space is reserved for one of the favorites, but I'm placing Spaun here because he might draw some attention after a decent showing at the Masters. Here's the problem: Spaun surprisingly won just a couple weeks ago then hurried off the Masters without a chance to soak in that win. I think the hangover sets in at Harbour Town.

Last Week: Will Zalatoris - T6 - $521,250

Season Total: $5,864,760

This Week: Corey Conners - Conners is running hot right now and I want to get on board. There area lot of ways I could go here, but I'm hesitant to use anyone I might want later in the year, and that makes Conners an even better option.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Corey Conners ($11,100)
Middle Range: Si Woo Kim ($10,000)
Lower Range: Denny McCarthy ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Jordan Spieth - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Matt Kuchar - Kuchar has come on, posting a runner-up in his most recent start and a T16 prior to that. He currently sits 46th in the FedExCup Standings and has a great track record at this event. He could be a sleeper in OAD leagues, but at a minimum, he's a great play in this format because he has played the weekend here in 17 straight appearances.