Weekly Preview: Mayakoba Golf Classic

Mayakoba Golf Classic

El Camaleon GC
Playa del Carmen, Mexico

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico this week for the final official event of the longest year on record.

I mentioned it a couple weeks ago, but it really is amazing that we made it this far, and really the only big blow relating to professional golf was the loss of the Open Championship. Sure, nothing has been the same this year -- golfers will sometimes disappear from the field and not be seen for weeks, and there are no spectators on the course -- but for those of us that run and play in fantasy leagues, it's basically been business as usual. The names at the top of the money list were those we expected and the major winners were a mix of fun names. We really couldn't have asked for more, especially as we watched THE PLAYERS Championship fizzle after just one round. At that moment, anything resembling a normal golf season appeared out of the question, but I have to hand it to the PGA Tour, they figured out a way.

We've already heard reports that fans won't be allowed at the early events next season, but with any luck, we could get back to something resembling "normal" next summer. As for this week, we've got a few big names in the field and a lot of course history to review. This should be a good event to close out what has certainly been an interesting -- to say the least -- 2020.

LAST YEAR

Brendon Todd shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Carlos Ortiz, Adam Long and Vaughn Taylor.

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (7-1)

There will be no Jon Rahm, no Bryson DeChambeau and no Dustin Johnson this week in Mexico, so the favorite becomes Thomas, who, you now, is pretty good. Thomas didn't win a major this year, but he won over $7 million during the 2019-2020 season and lifted three trophies. He's off to a nice start in the new season as well, earning over $1.7 million thanks to four top-12 finishes. He has also played pretty well in the fall in the past, winning four times in either October or November. JT has only one start here, which resulted in a T23 in 2014. 

Brooks Koepka (10-1)

Koepka had a poor year by his standards, if for no other reason than he did not win a major. There were moments throughout the season when it appeared Koepka might be close to finding his top form, but he never quite got over the hump. Part of that was due to injuries and part of that was due to his failure to maintain any momentum. Koepka should be back to his old self in 2021, but this year is all but over. He's rarely excelled outside the majors, and it would be a surprise to see him contend this week.

Harris English (16-1)

It sure seems odd to see English listed here, but that's the kind of year he is having. English posted some quality numbers during the '19-'20 season, and he's back at it again this season, earning over $1.1 million on the strength of a couple top-10s. English's track record in this event is all over the place, but he won here in 2014 and posted a top-5 last year.

THE NEXT TIER

Abraham Ancer (20-1)

Ancer is quickly becoming one of the better players on Tour, but he still hasn't landed a spot in the winner's circle. It's only a matter of time, though, as Ancer is too talented to remain winless much longer. This could be the week, as Ancer has played well here the past few years and is coming off a top-15 at the Masters.

Russell Henley (25-1)

There aren't many players in the field that have both a good track record here and good form coming in, so Henley's lack of success in this event -- 1-for-2 on cuts with a T29 finish -- shouldn't scare you away. His form has been solid all fall, as he has notched two top-5s and nothing worse than a T30 in five starts.

Corey Conners (30-1)

Conners has been the Sungjae Im of the '20-'21 season, playing in six event this fall as well as the Masters. Conners is not only playing almost every week, but he's also playing well. He posted a T10 at Augusta and followed that up with another T10 at The RSM Classic. His track record here in not great, but again, he's not alone in that camp.

LONG SHOTS

Brendon Todd (50-1)

Let's start with this: Todd has not played well this fall, but when he broke out in the fall of 2019, it's not like there was any indication beforehand. It's always nice to back someone who comes in with good form, but when you can grab the defending champ at 50-1, that works, too. On a promising note, Todd shot even par or under in each of his four rounds in his most recent start.

Emiliano Grillo (60-1)

Grillo is one of the few golfers in the field that has a strong track record here. In four starts, Grillo has three top-15s and is a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made. His play this fall hasn't been great, but he enters ranked 71st in the FedExCup Standings and posted a top-20 in his most recent start.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Harris English - I highly doubt many OAD players are going to use Thomas or Koepka this week, so that leaves English as the top option for most. In fact, English might be the best option, even when you include those two. You never know how the elite players are going to come out this time of year, and I could easily see JT -- and more likely, Brooks -- just wanting to get the year over with.

Moderately-owned Pick: Abraham Ancer - There aren't a ton of good options on paper this week, but there are a bunch of guys that could produce, and Ancer is one of them. He will have some value during the 2021 portion of the season, but even if he goes on a decent run, his odds won't be better than 30-1 very often.

Lightly-owned Pick: Emiliano Grillo - His recent form is probably enough to scare most OAD players away, but his track record is good enough to overcome that. Grillo has been pretty steady on this course, and he doesn't need to win to make this a good play, especially if you are on the only one in your league that has him this week.

Buyer Beware: The Favorites - As mentioned before, we have no idea which Thomas or Koepka will show up. With all that's happened this year and the current state of the pandemic, I'm a little surprised that either of them are playing this week. Whatever their motive, I can't imagine either will be particularly motivated.

Last Week: Corey Conners - T10 - $173,250

Season Total: $1,022,488

This Week: Harris English - I've been a big fan of English for a while, and if not for a disruption due to injury a couple years ago, he might be firmly entrenched in the tier just below the elite players on Tour. Good things lie ahead for English in 2021, but there won't be many spots where his odds are better than 20-1. This is a great time to use English in this format.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Harris English ($11,500)
Middle Range: Emiliano Grillo ($9,900)
Lower Range: Rory Sabbatini ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Webb Simpson - T37

Streak: 2

This Week: Brian Gay - This is certainly a risky play, but then again, he won in his most recent start and is a perfect 10-for-10 in cuts made at Mayakoba. That would make a number of golfers a lock, but but Gay really struggled at times in recent years. Let's hope that his win in Bermuda sparks a renewed vigor.