Weekly Preview: Houston Open

Houston Open

Memorial Park GC
Houston, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Houston, TX this week as the final tune-up for the Masters takes place. We were all terribly disappointed in April when the Masters was postponed, but seven months later, we get a nice treat as the final major will take place in mid-November, but that's next week, we still have one more event before we get to see Augusta in the fall. While the last event prior to a major is generally a waste land of players residing outside the top-50 on the FedEx list, this year it's serving a major (pardon the pun) purpose as a necessary tune-up for a lot of these guys. On the top of that list is Dustin Johnson, who hasn't played since being diagnosed with COVID-19 a month ago. In addition to DJ, Brooks Koepka is back in action, hoping he can shake off the rust in time to compete at a high-level next week. Not everyone is here though, there are a handful of big names, but most of the elite players are simply heading straight to Augusta. For those playing this week, they'll be playing teeing it up on a new track, which is unfortunate for us, but at least we've got current form to look over to help us figure out who'll play well this week.

LAST YEAR

Lanto Griffin shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Scott Harrington and Mark Hubbard.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (7-1)

There are some big names in the field this week, but no one that can challenge DJ if he's on his game. The problem, of course, is that there's no way to tell what shape his game is in after a long layoff. Considering his absence was COVID-19-related, it gets even more complicated. If he's on, he'll win, but there are too many questions to take him at this small of a number.

Russell Henley (16-1)

Given the competition, it may be surprising to see Henley come in with the second-lowest odds. Believe it or not, it's actually deserved. If this event were still held at the Golf Club of Houston, Henley might be the favorite. As it is, though, Henley is merely just another golfer that arrives in really good form. Henley posted top-5s in each of his past two starts and has a track record of playing well in this event, even if it was on a different course.

Tony Finau (16-1)

Finau has to get a win against a full field at some point, right? It's amazing how much success he's had without posting a win since his lone PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open in 2016. He's come close so many times, but he always manages to slip up somewhere, usually on Sunday. He's going to cross the finish line in first place at some point, though, and that could be this week. Finau posted a top-10 at the U.S. Open and finished T11 in his only other start this fall at The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

THE NEXT TIER

Brooks Koepka (20-1)

It's become a little too easy to write Koepka off when he's not playing in a major, but if he's in "major form" he should play well this week. The question is, how close is he? In his most recent start he started and closed poorly, but posted two solid rounds in-between.

Zach Johnson (33-1)

Seeing Johnson on this list should be an indication that there aren't many quality options beyond the handful of top players. Johnson isn't someone that comes to mind when picking winners any longer, but he has played well over the past couple months. Johnson posted a top-10 at the U.S. Open and carded two top-25s in his only two starts this fall.

Sergio Garcia (40-1)

No, this list isn't from 2015. Garcia, like Johnson, has found his game over the past couple months and should garner consideration this week, especially after his win just a month ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship. With the Masters on the horizon, there's a decent chance that Garcia is looking ahead. But if he's not, he could record his second win the season before we even get to 2021.

LONG SHOTS

Lanto Griffin (50-1)

I'm generally not fond of taking the defending champ, especially when it is someone who doesn't have much experiencing defending, but the course swap changes the dynamic enough to put Griffin back in play. Okay, that's a bit of a stretch, but it's tough to find any value lower down the list this week, and Griffin played well in his two most recent starts.

Doc Redman (50-1)

Redman was in position to win in Bermuda, but he couldn't find that extra gear Sunday. He didn't play poorly, but didn't have enough to get out in front of Brian Gay. Redman has a ton of game and will win sometime soon. That sometime soon could be this week, as the field is not too imposing.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Russell Henley - It seems like the OAD picks have been pretty easy this fall, and that is again the case this week. There's no worry about using Henley this early in the season and he's one of the best three options available. The issue with Henley, however, is that most of your league will be on him as well.

Moderately-owned Pick: Zach Johnson - The days of using Johnson in this format seemed long gone, but he's found his old form recently and is once again in the mix in certain situations. This is one of them, because there aren't a ton of good options and there is no course history.

Lightly-owned Pick: Ollie Schniederjans - Remember this guy? Schniederjans arrived on the scene a few years ago and made an immediate impression. He failed to sustain his early momentum, however, and disappeared soon after. He posted a T3 this past week at the Bermuda Championship, suggesting he might be ready for a second act.

Buyer Beware: Jason Day - With only a handful of top players in the field this week, Day's odds are relatively low at just 33-1. They should be higher, though, as Day's been way off his game of late. Day's best performance in three starts this fall was a T60 at The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and there were only 78 golfers in that field.

Last Week: Brendon Todd - MC - $0

Season Total: $801,288

This Week: Russell Henley - I got burned taking the obvious pick this past week, but that's not scaring me away from doing so again. Henley will be a popular pick, but one of the benefits of taking a golfer like that is, if he does miss the cut, almost everyone goes down with the ship. I don't expect Henley to have a bad week, however.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Russell Henley ($11,200)
Middle Range: Brian Harman ($9,900)
Lower Range: Adam Schenk ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Brendon Todd (MC)

Streak: 0

This Week: Russell Henley - It wasn't enough for Todd to sink me in the OAD format; he had to kill my modest Survivor streak as well. That's the danger in doubling up though: it looks so promising when you make the pick, but if the unimaginable happens, it's a disaster. Once again, though, there's no reason to think Henley will perform poorly in Houston.