Weekly Preview: BMW Championship

BMW Championship

Olympia Field CC
Olympia Fields, IL  

The PGA Tour heads to Olympia Fields, IL this week, but only the top 70 in the Fed Ex Cup standings are invited. A lot of big names are left behind this season, but plenty of big guns remain. One such big gun is Dustin Johnson who obliterated the course and the competition this past week at the Northern Trust Open. It's been a while since we saw an effort like that and if history tells us anything, it's that he'll likely come out flat this week. That's not a knock on DJ, it's just the way things go in this game. One week you can't miss, the next, nothing goes right. Heck, just a few weeks ago it was DJ who couldn't find his way around a rather simple layout at the 3M Open and look at him now. As for this week, we're stuck with virtually no course history, which means the odds chart is going to represent the biggest names and the hottest players at the top. Without course history, we're stuck with current form and our guts, which can often be correct, so there's no need to panic. Only the top-30 in the Fed Ex Cup Standings move onto next week, which means we'll have a lot of guys grinding on the weekend, even if they aren't near the top of the leader board.

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 68 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Patrick Cantlay.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (8-1)

The odds are going to be a bit lower than normal this week because the size of the field, but keep in mind that even though there are only 70 players in the field, these are the 70 best this season and there's plenty of high-end golfers out there. With that in mind, it's tough to side with Johnson at this price. The odds of him backing-up his performance from this past week are low and there's isn't much value at this price.

Jon Rahm (9-1)  

Another strong option, but again, there isn't much value getting single-digit odds against a high-quality field. Rahm is a few weeks removed from his last win and his form looks good, which means he's one of a handful of players that are appealing this week. Still, unless his odds go higher than 9-1, there's just simply not enough value.

Justin Thomas (11-1)

This is where we can start thinking about making a play. Thomas has had an outstanding season, but he's coming off a poor effort last week, which has essentially pushed him down the odds chart. In other words, it's time to strike. Thomas won this event last year and while it was on a different track, it's good to know that he's experienced in winning playoff events.

THE NEXT TIER

Bryson DeChambeau (14-1)

There's a theory when gambling on teams that if they play too well, it's sometimes tough to keep that up as they start "believing the headlines". While that may or may not be the case with DeChambeau, he certainly did receive a lot of publicity for his bulked-up body and his outstanding performances right out of the break. Fast forward a couple months and the hype has died down, and that's often the best time to go in on someone.                            

Daniel Berger (16-1)

It's amazing how Berger has turned his game around and know he's suddenly one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. Since the return, Berger has posted four top-3s in just six starts. Almost as impressive is Berger's ability to thrive after all of these high-end performances. After a rough couple of seasons, he could have easily let off the gas after his win in June, but he's continued to fight until the end every week.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

By the time the second longest cuts-made streak to start a career ended, Morikawa had gained a reputation as an extremely consistent golfer, but since winning the Workday Charity Open in early July, he's turned into a big time hit or miss guy and that's okay for our purposes. Morikawa won the PGA Championship two starts back and then missed the cut in his next start. That's understandable however, missing the cut right after your first major. He'll get back on track this week and be in contention once again though.

LONG SHOTS

Harris English (40-1)  

I wouldn't necessarily tab English as someone that would win a Fed Ex Cup event, but he did come in second this past week and if DJ hadn't caught fire, perhaps he'd already have a Fed Ex Cup win under his belt. Then again, perhaps the notion that he couldn't win last week took some pressure off? Whatever the case, English has been in the mix all season long and I wouldn't be surprised to see him find a win before the end of the season.                  

Kevin Kisner (45-1)  

Thanks to a couple strong finishes in his past two starts, Kisner enters this week in 23rd place on the Fed Ex Cup points list, but he may have to do some work this week to stay inside the top-30. That shouldn't be a problem though as he's finished T3 and T4 in the past two weeks. Expect Kisner to keep rolling this week and finish in the mix.                          

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - I would list DJ here, but I can't imagine that there are many OAD players that have him left. Instead I'll go to Rahm, who is close yet again and needs just a little more to go his way to get yet another PGA Tour win. Rahm should be a factor in the final two events this season.

Moderately-owned Pick: Daniel Berger - Unlike DJ, there are probably many players out there that have Berger because they've been afraid to use him. I think we've gone well past that point however as Berger has nothing left to prove outside of the majors. Berger's run must come to an end at some point, but I'm sure he can hold on for a couple more weeks.

Lightly-owned Pick: Harris English - There are many OAD players looking to make up ground and time is running out, which means you have to look to guys like English. Sure, it would have been nice to get him last week for $1 million, but he's been pretty consistent this season and his game is on right now, so why not see if he can make a run again this week?

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - I'm not speculating that DJ is in for a bad week, but he set the bar really high this past week and if you on him expecting something similar, then you are bound to be disappointed. There's no reason to think DJ will play poorly this week, but it's rare that a golfer can play really well in consecutive weeks.

Last Week: Collin Morikawa (MC) - $0 

Season Total: $5,551,971

This Week: Jon Rahm - I think its finally time to deploy Rahm. I'm in a bit of tough spot as I need to make sure I have someone for next week, but then again, anyone I take next week is guaranteed a decent check. Ah, the things you have to think about when the season is nearing the end. Majors are also a consideration, but I'm not too worried about not having him for the majors.

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($11,800)
Middle Range: Harris English ($10,300)
Lower Range: Brendan Steele ($7,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Adam Scott (T58)

Streak - 3

This week: N/A