Weekly Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Orlando as the Florida Swing continues with Arnie's event. The week following a major or a WGC event is sometimes a disappointment, as the field is generally not as strong as we'd like. That is the case this week, as not only are we following a WGC event, but THE PLAYERS is next week, so many of the top players are taking time off to rest up before heading to the TPC Sawgrass. Despite that, there are still some big names in the field, such as Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. While that's about it for the best of the best, there are plenty of guys on the next tier, and as always, the course will make the action fun to watch. 

One thing working in our favor -- something that we didn't have this past week -- is course history. Call me crazy, but I don't mind sacrificing some big names in exchange for this information. I know one doesn't impact the other, and even though last week was a WGC event with a loaded field, I'm actually looking forward to this event more because I have some idea of what might happen.

LAST YEAR

Tyrrell Hatton shot a final-round 74 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Marc Leishman.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (9-1)

I know what you're thinking: this is the part where I bash McIlroy's chances and claim he shouldn't be among the favorites. However, that's not the case this week. McIlroy actually has a lot going for him, including the weaker field at the top and his course history, which is pretty solid. McIlroy finished top-6 here in his past four starts here, and one of those was a win in 2018. He rebounded from his MC at The Genesis Invitational with a T6 this past week, and although he was never a threat to win, he seems to be close enough to make a run this week. Whether he can close or not remains the issue.

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

If the odds were based on recent play, DeChambeau would be nowhere near the top. But we know how this works, right? DeChambeau is clearly the second-biggest name in the field, so his odds are going to be among the shortest. The results have not been there for DeChambeau this season, but he's coming off a T22. That doesn't sound great on the surface, but when you consider he opened with a 77, it looks a lot better. DeChambeau's track record here is a bit scattered, but he does have two top-5s in four starts. If he continues to improve, he could make a run. His odds to win are a little short for me to wager on him, but I do think he's getting close.

Viktor Hovland (12-1)

If the odds were based solely on recent form, Hovland would likely be the favorite. Hovland won the Mayakoba Golf Classic in early December and hasn't slowed much since. His past three events resulted in a T5 and a pair of T2s. His runner-up this past week at the WGC event could have been a win if not for a disastrous final hole to close out Friday's round. That's golf, though: weird things happen and often the guy who wins is the one who avoided most -- if not all -- of the bad bounces over the course of four rounds. The only thing working against Hovland this week is his track record, which is not great. In two starts here, Hovland has a T40 and a T42. Granted, he's a better golfer now, so I would be surprised to see him finish in that range again.

THE NEXT TIER

Sungjae Im (20-1)

Im isn't exactly locked in right now, with just one top-10 in six starts this year. But he's been playing pretty well and is coming back to a place where he's had a lot of success. Though he has only played this event twice, he has managed two top-3s. His form is close enough that a familiar track with good memories might just be what he needs to get back into the winner's circle.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (25-1)

In years past, Fitzpatrick seemed to linger quite often, but rarely would he stick around deep into the weekend. That appears to be changing somewhat as he's starting to show some staying power. Granted, he hasn't shown enough yet to pull off a win, but he's getting close. He posted a T5 at the Genesis and a T11 this past week. Although both results were a product of him slipping on the weekend, he does seem to be hanging around a little bit longer than he used to. He's bound to break through at some point, and considering his form and the lack of elite golfers in the field, this could be the week.

Jordan Spieth (30-1)

There are different levels of "back" when referring to a comeback, and although Spieth is nowhere near the golfer he was while winning multiple majors, he is back to the place where no one will be surprised if he lands on the first page come Sunday. The next step of course is to win another event, and if he continues his current trajectory, he should have that taken care of sometime soon. Spieth has played exceptionally well over the past month, and perhaps his best outing was his most recent, as he posted a T15 at the Genesis Invitational. It wasn't his best finish this season, but after a pair of top-5s in the two starts leading up to that appearance, he managed to play well yet again. He has no track record here, but his form is too good to ignore.

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (40-1)

Burns nearly winning two weeks ago was no fluke. He's been on the radar for a while now, and many feel he will break through soon. Though he failed to pick up that win, he was forced to figure out how to play from out in front, an important hurdle for younger golfers trying to break through. Burns had all the pressure on his shoulders, and though he showed some cracks on Saturday, he didn't completely crumble, and he managed to put together a solid final round. He'll put four outstanding rounds together in the near future, and with some momentum, perhaps that will happen this week.

Marc Leishman (50-1)

Leishman has just one top-10 this season, and that came against a shortened field at the Tournament of Champions. However, 50-1 seems too steep for him this week. Leishman's track record here is outstanding, and he's not that far removed from his best golf, which makes him a perfect buy-low candidate. Leishman won this event in 2017 and finished runner-up here last year. He has made the cut in nine of 11 starts and has four top-10s in total. That doesn't sound like a guy who should be in this range.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - Is McIlroy past the point where OAD players think about saving him for a major? If not, he's close, which means you have to strike at the right point in the season, no matter the event. As mentioned previously, I believe he belongs in in his spot on the odds chart this week, so I have no problem using him in this format.

Moderately-owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - If not for the presence of McIlroy and his gaudy track record here, Hovland would be the clear-cut top option in OAD contests this week. With the way he's played recently, he just might be anyway. I can't argue with this pick either, as Hovland is on fire. However, he will be a popular play, as there won't be many saving him for later in the season.

Lightly-owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - This is a surprise entry here, as this spot is generally reserved for a lesser-known player. However, I can't imagine many OAD players will be on DeChambeau this week after the way he's played lately. I think he's closer than many people think, and if he plays well this week and you don't take him, you'll lose your chance to gain ground on the competition, as he will be back on everyone's radar again.

Buyer Beware: Tyrrell Hatton - There was a time when I steered clear of the defending champ almost entirely because it's not an easy spot to be in. While I've softened that stance over the years, I do think there's something to avoiding a golfer who is defending for the first time. In Hatton's case, he'll be defending his first PGA Tour win, and while I don't expect him to crumble under the pressure, I also don't expect a great performance.

Last Week: Xander Schauffele - T39 - $55,000

Season Total: $2,110,592  

This Week: Rory McIlroy - To use a poker term, I feel like I'm "on tilt" right now, and the decisions I'm making aren't the best, as a bad start to the season has me reaching a bit. With that said, you can't argue against using McIlroy in this spot. His form is good, his track record here is outstanding and quite honestly, I don't feel the need to save him for a major. My only hesitation is that there are a handful of good options to consider, including Hovland and Leishman.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Rory McIlroy ($12,300)
Middle Range: Marc Leishman ($10,100)
Lower Range: Ian Poulter ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 1

This Week: Viktor Hovland - I was going to use Leishman here, but I burned him at the Farmers Insurance Open. Instead I'll go with Hovland, who is on top of his game right now and should have no trouble making the cut. His track record here is a bit of a concern, but at least he's made the cut in both starts.