Weekly Preview: 3M Open

3M Open

TPC Minneapolis
Blaine, MN

The PGA Tour leaves the comfy confines of Dublin, Ohio for the Great White North, otherwise known as Minnesota. Blaine, Minnesota to be more specific and for those that enjoyed the carnage that was Muirfield this past week, well, you might want to hide your eyes as we're back to birdies-or-bust golf. Last year, the first 3M Open, Matthew Wolff needed to go really low to win and -21 under par was barely enough. The course is not meant to be difficult and if the wind is not blowing, the scores will be very low once again. I've spent a lot of time on this course and there's just not enough room to make it really difficult. They've done everything they can to turn the course from a Champions Tour course into a PGA Tour course, but there isn't much in the way of natural defense out there. Last year's 3M Open was a bit of coming-out party for the young guys as Wolff got the victory and Collin Morikawa played well on his way to a T2. Of the top four finishers last year, only Wolff is returning, so that means no Morikawa and no Bryson DeChambeau. There's still some firepower in the field this week however, so expect some really low scores again.

LAST YEAR

Matthew Wolff shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (11-1)

It's a bit surprising to see DJ lead the way, as he struggled big time this past week at the Memorial, but he's got the length to bring this course to its knees and there's not a lot of high-end competition to deal with this week. Johnson struggled on a tough layout this past week, but the easier layout should help him get back on track this week.                    

Brooks Koepka (12-1)  

Koepka played here last year, but I'm not sure what the connection is as it doesn't quite seem to fit his style. This is not a high-profile event and we know that Koepka often struggles against lesser fields, so I'm not sure these odds make sense. It's another case of the name, not the game, driving the odds. We see it every week with a guy or two, and this week it's Koepka that has no value with his current odds.                      

Tony Finau (14-1)

At what point does Finau's inability to beat a regular PGA Tour field become a mental block? He's put himself in position to win several times on the PGA Tour, but he's never sealed the deal against a regular PGA Tour field. There's no denying his talent, but there's also no denying that he doesn't close well. Perhaps this type of event, and this caliber of field is what he needs to close with style.

THE NEXT TIER

Matthew Wolff (28-1)

I'm not a fan of the second-tier favorites this week, so I'm looking a little further down the list. Wolff has been anything but consistent on the PGA Tour, but we know his upside is pretty high. He nearly won a few weeks ago, which means he's not that far removed from his best form. Perhaps a trip back to the spot where he had his biggest triumph will result in another strong showing.

Doc Redman (41-1)

Considering it was two young guns in the mix last year at this event, I'm leaning towards the younger guys who can go low this week as well. Redman fits the bill as he's shown a strong upside and his best golf has come over his past few starts. Redman has posted top-25s in three of his past four starts, but he'll have to show a little more consistency this week if he's to contend.

Sam Burns (45-1)

Like Redman, Burns hasn't come close to winning lately, but he's put together some impressive stretches. Also like Redman, he needs to find a little more consistency. Burns was in the mix at the Workday Charity Open earlier this month, but he blew up in the final round. Expect him to get out to a good start again and keep a close eye on him to see how he closes. I'm guessing he puts together four rounds.                          

LONG SHOTS

Sepp Straka (50-1)  

Straka struggled this past week at the Memorial where he posted a T61, but in his two starts prior to that, on easier courses, he fared pretty well. Straka posted a T14 and a T8 in the lead up to this past week and now that he's on an easier course, he should find his best form. Straka has been extremely streaky in his two years on the PGA Tour and he looks to be in the midst of one of his good runs right now, which means the window of opportunity might be closing after this week.

Troy Merritt (80-1)  

Merritt is another guy who's played well at the easier courses since the break, which means you can safely throw out last week's missed cut. Merritt actually got off to a good start this past week at the Memorial, but halfway through the 1st round he lost his game. Hopefully that was a result of the conditions and not his game overall, because he could do some damage on this course this week. Prior to this past week, Merritt posted a T8 and a T22.                      

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - There aren't many high-profile golfers in the field this week and considering Finau played well into the weekend this past week, I would imagine that many OAD players will use him in this spot. I have no problem with this pick as long as Finau is able to put his disappointing final round from the Memorial behind him.                            

Moderately-owned Pick: Matthew Wolff - Wolff should be a popular pick this week as well, considering he's the defending champ and has played well recently. He posted a T22 in tough conditions this past week at the Memorial and nearly won on an easier track at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Considering most people have already used D.J. and/or are saving Koepka, Wolff might be the most popular pick this week.                    

Lightly-owned Pick: Sepp Straka - In case you haven't picked up on it yet, I'm not expecting a conventional event in Blaine. This is setting up as one of those weeks where there are a lot of unexpected names on the leaderboard and Straka certainly qualifies. As mentioned earlier, Straka has handled the easier layouts lately, and the TPC Blaine is there for the taking. 

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - You've probably already figured out that I'm not a fan of Koepka this week. We always worry about motivation with Koepka and I'm still trying to figure out what's driving him right now. Perhaps his brother being on hand will help, but that doesn't seem to be enough to keep the elder Koepka's attention. Brooks is not playing well right now, either, so there's just no reason to use him in this spot.                              

Last Week: Patrick Cantlay (T32) $51,925 Season - $3,350,071  

This Week: Doc Redman - Well, it's not a spot I wanted to be in, but I've used almost everyone near the top of the odds chart and all that is left are a bunch of guys with higher odds this week. Among them, I like Redman the most, as I think he has a high ceiling and has been playing well for a few weeks.                                                            

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Lucas Glover ($10,600)
Middle Range: Sepp Straka ($9,700)
Lower Range: Sam Ryder ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Patrick Cantlay (T32) - Streak - 2

This Week: Lucas Glover - It's always tough to pick a guy in this format when there is so little course history, but I'm feeling good about Glover, as he recorded a top-10 here last year and has been on a roll over the past month. He played well to start the week at the Memorial, but he faltered in the tough weekend conditions.. He should get back on track at an easier course this week.