This article is part of our Weekly PGA Recap series.
We always talk in the weekly DraftKings value picks about current form and course history being the overriding factors to consider. That marriage came together in perfect symmetry on Sunday, when Bubba Watson roared from way behind to win for the third time at the Travelers Championship and for the third time on the PGA Tour this season.
When we (all of us) look at current form, it's very hard to focus on what we really should be examining, which is at least the past few months, and not get sucked in and swayed by a more recent bad week or two.
Watson won at Riviera in February, won the WGC-Match Play in March and tied for fifth at the Masters in April. After Augusta, though, he finished outside the top-40 at both The Players and the Memorial, then last week missed the cut at the U.S. Open. It would've been easy to take a brief snapshot of Watson's game and say that he'd done squat for two months, which would be true. It's just that it's too small of a sample size – three tournaments, 10 rounds.
The Tour is so deep now it's almost a guarantee that bad weeks or even bad stretches will afflict even the best golfers. Look at Jordan Spieth. The defending Travelers champion continued his slump with a tie for 42nd at River Highlands. Does anyone doubt he'll find his way back? Justin Thomas had his worst showing of the season at the U.S.
We always talk in the weekly DraftKings value picks about current form and course history being the overriding factors to consider. That marriage came together in perfect symmetry on Sunday, when Bubba Watson roared from way behind to win for the third time at the Travelers Championship and for the third time on the PGA Tour this season.
When we (all of us) look at current form, it's very hard to focus on what we really should be examining, which is at least the past few months, and not get sucked in and swayed by a more recent bad week or two.
Watson won at Riviera in February, won the WGC-Match Play in March and tied for fifth at the Masters in April. After Augusta, though, he finished outside the top-40 at both The Players and the Memorial, then last week missed the cut at the U.S. Open. It would've been easy to take a brief snapshot of Watson's game and say that he'd done squat for two months, which would be true. It's just that it's too small of a sample size – three tournaments, 10 rounds.
The Tour is so deep now it's almost a guarantee that bad weeks or even bad stretches will afflict even the best golfers. Look at Jordan Spieth. The defending Travelers champion continued his slump with a tie for 42nd at River Highlands. Does anyone doubt he'll find his way back? Justin Thomas had his worst showing of the season at the U.S. Open, a tie for 25th, before finishing even worse last week, a tie for 56th.
But back to Watson. He began the day six shots behind leader Paul Casey, then went out and shot a 7-under 63 to give him 12 career wins. He's also now back up to No. 13 in the world, a jump of more than 100 spots in four months.
Besides proving the importance of current form and course history, Watson went a long way to also showcase the unimportance of driving accuracy. On a short course that's set up to choke off the longest hitters, Watson was his usual self, ranking seventh in distance off the tee. But he was far from straight, finishing in a tie for 70th in accuracy. It obviously mattered little. Watson was still able to crack the top-10 in greens in regulation.
Watson is the first three-time winner on Tour this season and, just months removed from wondering whether the competitive portion of his career was over, he now joins the conversation for Player of the Year. Watson hasn't won a major, and if you've seen his British Open record you know he won't get one there next month.
But more important than postseason accolades, it's clearly evident that Watson could win again this season. Even if you see him look woeful in the coming weeks, including at the Open, don't overreact. Watson's current form is as good as anyone's on Tour in 2018. However, you won't have such strong history to consider: Eleven of Watson's 12 career wins have come in the first half of the year; he's won only once from July onward, as the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions, part of next season's schedule.
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Paul Casey
Here's the problem with the argument for current form and course history: It's not infallible. Casey was shooting for his second win of the season at a track where he'd finished in the top-five two of the three previous years. Further, he shot a 62 to take a big 54-hole lead. But he collapsed in the final round, shooting one of the worst scores of the day, a 2-over 72. He wound up in a four-way tie for second, three shots back. Maybe Watson had the advantage of missing the cut at Shinnecock, while Casey played all four days in a grueling major. The good news for the Englishman is that he has endured disappointing finishes before and they never seem to keep him down. No reason to think Casey won't be out there contending the next time he tees it up. Casey moved to No. 12 in the world, just ahead of Watson.
Russell Henley
Henley was another guy who played meaningful golf for part of the U.S. Open, and he also looked as if he ran out of gas on Sunday. Still, his tie for sixth gave him only his second top-10 all season. No, Henley's current form had not been good. And this result isn't enough to say he's turned the corner.
Stewart Cink
At the beginning of June, Cink's playing status for next season was in question. He was well outside the top-125 without a top-10 in 17 starts. And then Cink tied for fourth in Memphis earlier this month, and now he's added a co-runner-up at the Travelers. Cink moves up to 72nd in the FedEx Cup point standings, ensuring he'll be back in 2018-19. Cink is also in action this week at the Quicken Loans National, and at a TPC Potomac course that fits his skill set. But it's really hard for anyone, much less a 45-year-old, to play well three weeks in a row. We shall see.
J.B. Holmes
Like Cink, Holmes entered June with many questions surrounding his game. Of course, that's a polite way of saying he'd been pretty bad all season. But Holmes was in the four-way tie for second on Sunday, two weeks after tying for third at Memphis and three weeks after tying for 13th at the Memorial. It certainly seems as if the 36-year-old Holmes has flipped some sort of switch to recapture his game. He's back at it this week at the National, thought that's a track that doesn't seem to align with his strengths.
Ryan Blaum
Blaum is another guy who a few weeks ago looked like a different golfer and, like Cink, his status for next season was uncertain. Blaum tied for 12th at the Travelers, which comes on the heels of a tie for 18th two weeks prior at Memphis and a tie for sixth last month at the Byron Nelson. All of a sudden, the 34-year-old Blaum has gone from outside the top-140 in the point standings to 105th, virtually ensuring a top-125 position when the regular season ends eight weeks from now. He's in the field at TPC Potomac, and even this mini-run will not greatly affect his position as a low-priced DFS option.
Charley Hoffman
Hoffman is in no danger when it comes to next season's playing status. But this has been a down year for him and, when you're on the other side of 40, you wonder if there are gonna be anymore up years. Hoffman is 35th in the OWGR and 88th in the FedEx Cup point standings, and those numbers simply don't jibe. He does not have a single top-10 this season, though he came close with a T15 at River Highlands. That follows a T20 at Shinnecock. Improvements or aberrations?
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy opened with a 64 and shot four rounds in the 60s but never was a factor after Thursday and tied for 12th. Putting is the issue. McIlroy's ball striking remains elite, as he led the field in strokes gained: tee to green. He was last in strokes gained: putting. When you are that good with your irons, you don't have to be great with your putter. But you have to be halfway decent. McIlroy has one more tournament to correct the issue before the Open Championship – at the Irish Open right after July 4. He'll be one of the favorites at Carnoustie regardless, but he has to improve at least a little bit to warrant strong consideration.
David Lingmerth
Lingmerth notched his first top-25 since all the way back in November with his T19 at the Travelers. At 153rd in the point standings, he has some serious ground to make up. It could be coming this week. Lingmerth showing signs of good play could be a good omen heading into TPC Potomac, a course where he won a Web.com Tour event back in 2012 and tied for fifth at the PGA Tour event there last year.
Daniel Berger
Berger was a favorite of gamers for the Travelers, where he cashed top-five two years running, after his great week at the U.S. Open. Ah, but a good Open did not constitute good current form, as it was Berger's first top-10 all season. He'd been awful. So what happened at the Travelers? What was obvious to some – he barely made the cut and tied for 67th. Berger is still struggling.
Ryan Palmer
Berger is not struggling as bad as this guy is, though. Palmer fulfilled his medical exemption with a runner-up at Torrey Pines in February, and since then he's done next to nothing, missing the cut in eight of 12 starts. That includes another trunk-slam on Friday at River Highlands. Palmer is in the field at the National, and his price will be dirt-cheap. Don't be enticed.
