Tour Championship Preview: Doubting Thomas

The PGA Tour heads to Atlanta this week for its first ever Handicap Championship. This time, the better player gets the strokes! That motto never caught on, but there's a lot of truth in that statement. 

In an effort to "make things easier" — and eliminate the possibility come Sunday of having a Tour Championship winner and a different FedEx Cup Playoffs winner, as happened last year — the PGA Tour decided to convert an advantage in the FedEx Cup standings into an advantage on the course. Thus, Justin Thomas, who took the FedEx points lead after winning the BMW Championship last week, begins this week 10-under par. Patrick Cantlay begins 8-under, followed by Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed and Rory McIlroy each one successive stroke behind, respectively. Then there are five players each are 4-under, 3-under, 2-under, 1-under and even to round out the 30-golfer field. 

While it takes away any confusion about who wins the FedEx championship vs. the Tour Championship, it sure made a mess for us fantasy players. We'll adjust. If this format sticks, we might even come up with a good system. 

This format could be a disaster or it could be fun. Either way, it will be interesting to see how the bonus strokes come into play come Sunday afternoon. We're back at Eastlake in Atlanta, which means course history is in play this week.   

This Week: The Tour Championship – Eastlake Golf Club, Atlanta  

Last Year: Tiger Woods shot a final-round 71 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Billy Horschel.  
FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (5-2) 

There's little doubt that JT should be favored this week, but the odds are way too low in my opinion. If he had a 10-stroke lead on the entire field, then sure, he's a huge favorite, but he's only two up on Cantlay, who hung tough Sunday, and three up on Koepka, and well, he's pretty good when challenged. As for JT's prospects outside of the strokes, well, he's fared pretty well here, with three finishes in the top 7 in three starts. He's favored, he should be, but it's not a slam dunk as the odds indicate.          

Patrick Cantlay (5-1)   

It's easy to see the odds this week are based heavily on the starting advantage as Cantlay is the second favorite. Not that Cantlay wouldn't be among the favorites without the strokes, but with the obvious starting edge, he has to be among the top 3 according to the odds. The issue for Cantlay is that he hasn't fared well at this event in the past. He's finished 21st and 20th in his two starts. He's a better player now that he was in his previous starts, however, which should result in a better finish ... regardless of the stroke advantage.         

Brooks Koepka (5-1) 

Koepka will be my main focus this week. After two weeks of less than inspired play, does Koepka flip that switch that we all assume he has? Or maybe, just maybe, he's actually off his game right now? Unfortunately, there's just no way to tell with Koepka as we've seen him turn it on in big situations, seemingly at will. My guess is that Koepka shows up this week, if for no other reason, he sees the strokes disadvantage as a challenge. Oh, and there is a little prestige that comes with being the FedEx champion.               

MID-TIER GOLFERS                      

Jon Rahm (16-1) 

Rahm starts the week 4-under, which means he's already six off the pace, but he's only a handful of strokes behind the rest of the leaders, which he could easily make up by the end of Thursday. He's played pretty well in his two previous starts at this event, with a T7 and a T11.            

Webb Simpson (20-1) 

Simpson also starts the week 4-under, and while he'll likely get overlooked this week, he's one guy who could make up plenty of ground early. Simpson has played this event about as much as anyone in the field this week and often played it well. Simpson has finished in the top 5 here in three of his six starts, which includes a T4 last year.         

Xander Schauffele (28-1) 

Also starting 4-under this week, Schauffele is not at the top of his game, but just two years ago, he won this event, beating none other than Thomas by one stroke. He'll have to do better than that this time around, but he's proven himself a number of times already and this would be just another strong performance from Schauffele if he were to win.               

LONGSHOTS

Hideki Matsuyama (33-1)  

Matsuyama starts the week 3-under, but if he plays like he did last last Sunday, he could be even with the leaders after one round. That's what is going to be interesting this week. Someone who starts on the lower end is bound to get off to a good start and threaten the leaders. How do they respond to going really low and still trailing after one round? Matsuyama has two top-5s in five starts at this event.          

Rickie Fowler (50-1)  

Fowler is even further off the pace than Matsuyama as he'll start 2-under, but his form is strong and he's about as streaky as anyone on the PGA Tour. That said, when you start talking about an eight-stroke deficit, it's quite the daunting task, but that's why a player of Fowler's caliber is 50-1 in a field of 30.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Justin Thomas - I'm not sure there are any OAD pools still going nor how they've decided to use this week's results, but JT is the obvious pick. Not only does he have the strokes advantage, but he also has the form and the track record here.                

Moderately Owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Koepka would be listed in this spot, but I can't imagine that anyone still has him at their disposal. Cantlay, however, could be available for some teams as there is no specific spot where he has a huge advantage and he's not a proven commodity at the majors yet. Cantlay looks like a strong play this week, regardless of the strokes.          

Lightly Owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - He starts the week at a major deficit, but if he can stay hot, then he has a real shot at winning. A quick start will be key for anyone whose well off the pace to start, like Matsuyama, but he comes in hot off a torrid round Sunday.                     

Buyer Beware: Patrick Reed - Reed won just two weeks ago and played fairly well last week, but his track record on this course is not good. Reed has finished 24th or worse in three of his five starts here and has cracked the top 15 just once.                    

Last Week: Rickie Fowler (T11) -$196,100; Season - $7,342,492  

This Week: Paul Casey - Perhaps with another season under my belt, I'll have a better option to use in this spot, but we are all learning with the new rules. It's not that Casey is a bad pick on the surface — he actually has a strong track record at this event — but he's starting the week only 2-under, which is obviously a lot to overcome.                                               

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Brooks Koepka ($12,100)/Webb Simpson ($10,300)/Rickie Fowler ($8,600) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: no cut; Streak - 2 

This week: no cut