This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach this week as the season's first major, uh, as the fifth major takes center, um, OK, it's not a major, but it's a pretty big deal. The Players shares more than a few characteristics with your typical major, which is why it's often considered on its own tier, just below the majors.
For starters, the field is just about as good as it gets. Everyone wants to play here and golfers rarely pass, like they might for a normal PGA Tour event or even a WGC event from time to time. Another similarity with three of the four majors is that no one owns this event. Sure, there are several golfers in the field with solid track records, but no player can claim that they've played well here year in and year out. That's a testament to how this course can play depending on the conditions and also speaks to the pressure golfers are under when in contention with the island green waiting. The 18th hole is no cake walk either, but we all know who the star is here.
The Players Championship – TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Last Year: Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jim Furyk.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (7-1)
If you are looking for someone who is almost guaranteed a spot in the top 5 this week, then McIlroy is your guy. If you
The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach this week as the season's first major, uh, as the fifth major takes center, um, OK, it's not a major, but it's a pretty big deal. The Players shares more than a few characteristics with your typical major, which is why it's often considered on its own tier, just below the majors.
For starters, the field is just about as good as it gets. Everyone wants to play here and golfers rarely pass, like they might for a normal PGA Tour event or even a WGC event from time to time. Another similarity with three of the four majors is that no one owns this event. Sure, there are several golfers in the field with solid track records, but no player can claim that they've played well here year in and year out. That's a testament to how this course can play depending on the conditions and also speaks to the pressure golfers are under when in contention with the island green waiting. The 18th hole is no cake walk either, but we all know who the star is here.
The Players Championship – TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Last Year: Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jim Furyk.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (7-1)
If you are looking for someone who is almost guaranteed a spot in the top 5 this week, then McIlroy is your guy. If you are placing a wager on a golfer to win, then you probably want to look elsewhere because 7-1 is just not a high enough price for someone who can't seem to close anymore. He has the track record and his form on the whole is great, but his final-round issues seem to pop up almost every time he's in the lead.
Jon Rahm (12-1)
Quite an interesting development this week as Rahm, whose track record is no better than Justin Thomas, finds himself as the second-favorite. Rahm played well here last year (T12), but prior to that, he posted a T62 and a T72. His odds this week are a little confusing. Rahm has the talent to win any time he tees it up, but this doesn't feel like a good spot to take a chance on him.
Justin Thomas (14-1)
Thomas has lacked the consistency of an elite golfer this season, but when he's on, he's produced at a high level. Thomas has yet to miss a cut in five tries here, but he has just one top-10. However, there are few strong track records here, which means I won't lean heavily on that metric this week. Thomas' odds are long enough to consider a play.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Bryson DeChambeau (20-1)
DeChambeau started slowly last week at the Arnold Palmer but somehow ended up in the top 5 yet again. It was just two starts back when he nearly won, and he managed to right the ship last week, which bodes well for this week. DeChambeau hasn't done anything spectacular here, but he has made the cut in both of his starts and has played well enough on the weekend to make me think he's got a run in him this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
Although I'm not sold on Rahm as the second-favorite this week, the oddsmakers seem to have a pretty good feel for the rest of the order. Fleetwood was terrible last week, but we can probably chalk that up to a mental issue as he was just a few days removed from what was a great chance to win at the Honda Classic. With the extra time to recover, Fleetwood should get back on track this week. Fleetwood's history here is another reason to side with him as he has two top-10s in three starts.
Sungjae Im (25-1)
Im had every right to not show up last week at the Arnold Palmer, but not only did he show up, he almost won the whole thing. It's safe to say that Im is on a heck of a roll. He's only played this event once and it didn't end well, but he obviously didn't have his current form when he teed it up last year.
LONGSHOTS
Marc Leishman (45-1)
Leishman certainly doesn't have the track record here — he has just one top-10 in 10 starts — but his form is solid and he's adept at navigating tough conditions. Although Leishman doesn't have any high-end finishes here, he has made the cut in six of 10 starts, which shows that he has some feel for this course.
Abraham Ancer (80-1)
Ancer has just one start at this event, but he fared pretty well in that start, ending up with a T12. Ancer has been on a bit of a roller coaster lately, rotating between good and bad starts. But he's coming off a relatively poor start, which means he's probably due for a good showing.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - McIlroy wasn't quite as popular last week as I thought he would be, but for those who didn't take him last week, he's going to be very tempting. That excludes me, of course, but if I had him still, I'd think long and hard about pulling the trigger. The worry now is his closing ability, but the odds are good that he'll at least be in contention on the weekend.
Moderately Owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - With only a few players having strong track records here, current form will be relied upon this week, and there are few golfers with better current form than DeChambeau. I particularly liked his resolve last week after appearing to be off his game early in the week.
Lightly Owned Pick: Ian Poulter - Poulter has just two top-10s here in 16 starts, but one of those was a runner-up in 2017. In addition, he's made the cut here in 13 of those 16 starts. His form isn't great, but it's not terrible either. Right in that sweet spot where he'll fly under the radar.
Buyer Beware: Rickie Fowler - With a win and a runner-up, Fowler is one of a handful of players in the field that have the high-end finishes here, but outside of those showings, he has eight poor results, including five missed cuts. Add to that, he's been wildly inconsistent this season, and I can't imagine a scenario where he contends this week.
Last Week: Rory McIlroy (T5) $330,771; Season - $2,517,246
This Week: Bryson DeChambeau - I normally lean heavily on track record, but with no one sticking out this week, I'm going to turn to current form, and DeChambeau fits the bill. DeChambeau has shown the ability to string together strong showings and after two in a row, I'm hoping he can add a third this week.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,300)/Webb Simpson ($10,700)/Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,400)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Lee Westwood (T56) - Streak - 8
This Week: Ian Poulter - I don't quite trust Poulter enough in this spot to use him in the OAD format, but I see no reason to fade him in this format. Poulter has made the cut in his only two starts on the PGA Tour this year and is accustomed to making the cut at this event.
