Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven picks and tools that have helped pool players win at more than three times the expected rate.
With a massive $25 million purse and a $4.5 million first-place payout, this week's Players Championship stands as the most valuable tournament of the year for Golf One and Done (OAD) pool players.
When breaking down the field, you need to make a strategy with your standings, available golfers, and the overall odds in mind—but don't worry, we'll walk you through all your options.
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THE PLAYERS Championship: Tournament Overview
Before diving into our Players Championship One and Done picks, here's a look at this week's tournament structure and prize distribution:
- 144-player field with a cut after two rounds
- $25 million purse, with $4.5 million to the winner
- The first-place prize is the largest of any tournament this season
- TPC Sawgrass presents unique challenges with its iconic island green 17th hole
- Scottie Scheffler looks to make history with a third consecutive Players Championship victory
Top Contenders to Win THE PLAYERS Championship
Here are the top golfers by outright odds (as of Tuesday, March 11) heading into the tournament:
- Scottie Scheffler (+500)
- Rory McIlroy (+1100)
- Collin Morikawa (+1200)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
- Xander Schauffele (+2200)
- Justin Thomas (+2200)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2800)
- Russell Henley (+2800)
While Scheffler is the clear favorite as the two-time defending champion, Morikawa comes in with momentum after his second-place finish last week. Russell Henley has surged to the top 10 in odds following his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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Most Popular PLAYERS Championship One and Done Picks
Here's what we are projecting will be the most popular Players Championship One and Done Picks this week:
Very High-Popularity Picks (15%+)
High-Popularity Picks (8-14%)
Medium-Popularity Picks (4-7%)
Lower-Popularity Picks (1-3%)
Best Players Championship One and Done Pick?
Given the tournament's hefty first-place prize and strong field, your Players Championship One and Done pick strategy boils down to two main approaches:
Stick With a Top Favorite (Option 1)
- Based on win probability and recent form in most pools, Scheffler, McIlroy, or Morikawa are the strongest plays.
- If you're near the top of your standings, playing it safe with one of the golfers toward the top of the odds board (despite their popularity) makes sense.
- Your decision comes down to balancing this week's prospects with future value. Should you roll with Scheffler or wait for a different opportunity (where he might be less popular)? This is where our Golf OAD Tool and Planner come in handy.
Find a Sneaky-Good Leverage Play (Option 2)
- If you need to make up ground, consider a less popular golfer with upside, such as Schauffele, Thomas, or Fleetwood.
- Russell Henley is coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer and has longer odds but significant momentum.
- Sepp Straka has shown consistent form recently and remains under-selected relative to his chances.
Remember that the best Golf One and Done pick this week depends on your specific pool format, your current standings, and your remaining golfer inventory.
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Get an Edge in Your Golf One and Done Pools
Making the right Golf One and Done pick isn't just about this week—it's about long-term strategy. Managing player usage, tournament values, and pick popularity separates winning pool players from the rest.
That's where PoolGenius helps. Our Golf One and Done Tool provides:
- Custom weekly picks based on your pool's format and size
- Season-long player usage strategy to maximize expected value
- Golfer ratings and matchup data using advanced analytics
- Multi-entry optimization for managing multiple teams
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Gain a competitive advantage in your One and Done pool with data-driven picks, season-long strategy, and expert insights tailored to your specific pool format.