The Northern Trust Preview: Will Koepka Show Up?

The PGA Tour heads to New Jersey as the FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway for what is just a three-week stretch this season. It's what these guys play for all season, the playoffs, right? OK, it's unlike most other sports as the golf season fades away rather than finishing on a high note, but even though the majors are in the rear-view mirror, there's still some good golf in front of us. Heck, all the top players in the world will play the next three weeks, so we are bound to run into some drama at some point ... I think. 

Anyhow, we kick off the playoffs at Liberty National Golf Club, which was used in 2013 and 2009, giving us some course history to consider. We also have the drama of everyone in the field trying to finish in the top 70 in FedEx points. Yes, many do not have to worry about qualifying for next week, but with the new handicap system at the Tour Championship you can bet that even the top players will push hard to grab as many points as possible this week.  

This week: The Northern Trust – Liberty National Golf Club, Jersey City, N.J.  

Last Year: Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 69 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Tony Finau.  

FAVORITES

Brooks Koepka (8-1) 

The age-old question on everyone's mind this week is whether Koepka will show up. He put the non-major issue to rest at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude a couple weeks ago, but let's face it, that was a pretty big event also. The fact remains that he hasn't shown up at a lesser event for a while. Is this a lesser event, though? It's the playoffs but the least important of the three events.  Koepka's play this week will be a reflection of how hard he goes at the FedEx title. If he's determined to win the whole thing, he'll want to get all the points he can this week to put him in a good spot for the finale.          

Rory McIlroy (12-1)  

McIlroy's dealt with mental hurdles at major events for a few years now and suddenly he has to deal with a Koepka issue after losing handily to him during the final round of the St. Jude, which was essentially match play. His game overall appears to be in good shape, and as long as he's not paired with Koepka on Sunday, he has a good chance of winning this week. McIlroy has played this event on this course just once and finished in the top 20.         

Dustin Johnson (16-1) 

Johnson's record at this event is impressive, but his best work has come on other courses in the rotation. DJ missed the cut when this event was last held on this course, but we don't really need to worry too much about that. He is a beast outside the majors, which generally puts him in the mix, but his recent form is a little concerning. DJ has failed to post anything better than a T20 in his last five starts.              

MID-TIER PLAYERS                       

Justin Rose (20-1) 

Rose hasn't been as sharp this season as he was last season, but his play has improved the last couple months and he could be ready to make a run through the playoffs. Bolstering Rose's chances this week is his performance on this track in 2013. Rose tied for second in 2013, just one stroke behind the winner Adam Scott.            

Patrick Cantlay (20-1) 

Cantlay has essentially had one bad outing since the mid-May, and that even resulted in a T41. Outside his "poor" performance at the Open Championship, Cantlay has a win, a T3, two top-15s and a top-25. In other words, he's locked in. He has no experience on this track, but he's too good to fall flat just because the course is new to him.       

Webb Simpson (25-1) 

There aren't many guys going better than Simpson. He's posted an impressive runner-up at the St. Jude two weeks ago and was one stroke from a playoff last week. In addition to his solid form entering this week, he also has a pretty good track record on this course. Simpson posted a T15 in 2013 and a solo eighth in 2009.             

LONGSHOTS

Bryson DeChambeau (50-1)  

I was a little surprised to see DeChambeau's odds this high, but I'm not going to argue with it. DeChambeau is the defending champ at this event, but, of course, that came at a different venue. What he does have going for him is some good showings in two of his last four starts. He didn't fare well at the Open Championship, nor the St. Jude, but I expect him to get back on track this week at a more standard-type of event.          

Byeong-Hun An (60-1)  

An certainly didn't close in style last week at the Wyndham, but the good news is his game is in great shape entering this week. Can he play that well against a field like this? That I don't know, but that's exactly why he's considered a long shot this week.        

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Justin Rose - Guessing ownership at this point in the season is just about impossible, but it's pretty safe to say that most of the top players have been burnt by a majority of OAD users. I can't imagine many fantasy players still have Koepka, McIlroy or DJ left, which leaves golfers like Rose and others just off that top tier. Rose looks like a solid option this week and this would be a good spot to deploy him if you have him.  

Moderately Owned Pick: Webb Simpson - I can't imagine that many OAD players somehow held onto Simpson through last week, but if you still have him and don't have any of the top-tier guys left, then Simpson is certainly an option. Simpson is on fire, and he has positive memories of his time on this course in 2013 and 2009.          

Lightly Owned Pick: Byeong-Hun An - With all of the top players in the field this week, there won't be many OAD players reaching this far, but if you need to make up ground, An could be your guy. Prior to his solo third last week, An had posted top-20s in three of his previous five starts. After the way he closed last week, I'd say a win is highly unlikely, but a top-5 is certainly possible.                     

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - With a pair of top-15s in his last two starts, Thomas appears to be trending in the right direction, though he seems to missing that extra gear to get him over the top. Thomas has had little trouble closing in years past, but that hasn't been the case this year. I expect a decent showing this week, but again, I think he comes up short of a top-5 this week.                    

Last Week: Viktor Hovland (4th) -$297,600; Season - $7,119,827  

This Week: Tommy Fleetwood - As is sometimes the case at the end of the season, my OAD pick is someone that is not even mentioned until the very end. Such is the case this week as Fleetwood is not among my favorites, but all of my favorites have already been used. There are certainly things to like about Fleetwood this week, such as his solo second at the Open Championship and his T4 at the St. Jude.                                             

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Patrick Cantlay ($11,300)/Bryson DeChambeau ($10,000)/Mackenzie Hughes ($7,600) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last Week: Webb Simpson - (2); Streak - 1 

This Week: Tommy Fleetwood - Again, I don't have the pick of the litter in this format either, which means I have to go with someone just out of my top picks. Fleetwood is again at the top of that list as his current form is almost as good as the likes of Webb Simpson.