Sony Preview: JT Aims for Back-to-Back Wins

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week as the first full-field event of 2020 tees off Thursday. If last week is any indication, it's going to be a fun season. Not only were we treated to a playoff, but three big names were involved. It's hard to know what you'll get early in the season, and it's great to see the big names show up en masse. 

There are some big names in the field this week as well and plenty of other guys who are on the brink of becoming big names, which should lead to another interesting weekend. We still don't know much about the form of most of these golfers, but we have a lot of course history as Waialae Country Club has been the only course used for this event.            

This Week: Sony Open – Waialae Country Club, Honolulu

Last Year: Matt Kuchar shot a final-round 66 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Andrew Putnam.  

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (5-1)

Last week, Thomas was second-favorite to Jon Rahm, but this week Thomas is the clear favorite as no one else has single-digit odds. Thomas' track record here is pretty good, with a win in 2017 and another top-10 in 2015, but his placement atop the odds list this week is more a reflection of his current form. Thomas didn't exactly cruise to a victory last week at the Sentry, but a win is a win on the PGA Tour.              

Patrick Reed (12-1)  

Hate him or hate him a lot, the guy still knows how to get around a golf course. Reed nearly won last week at the Sentry and hopes to carry that momentum into this week's event. Reed has only played the Sony twice, with mixed results. This isn't so much about his track record, though, as Reed generally gets on rolls for multiple weeks at a time, which means he's definitely in play this week.              

Webb Simpson (12-1)

Simpson has played this event nine times and has yet to miss a single cut. That's the good news. The bad news is he has only two top-10s in those nine starts. The so-so news is he has six top-20s. You get the picture. He's been good here, but not great, which makes for a relatively easy decision to pass at this price.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

Morikawa created some concern about a sophomore slump last week when he posted a T7 at the Sentry. That bodes well for this week, as he'll again be a first-timer against a field that has plenty of experience on this course. His odds are roughly the same this week as last week, but there's obviously more competition this week. That said, Morikawa has decent value at this price.                

Matt Kuchar (20-1)

Kuchar's win here last year was no fluke. Although he's missed the cut here in six of his 14 starts, when he's made the cut, he's made the most of it. In his eight made cuts, he finished in the top 10 six times. Kuchar has more upside this week than a few names ahead of him on the odds list, which gives him plenty of value.                

Charles Howell III (30-1)

Howell's track record at the Sony is impressive. He's never won here, but he's a perfect 18-for-18 on cuts made. That's absolutely amazing. He's never had a bad year here. He's not just making the cut either, Howell has posted seven top-5s. His odds are more of a reflection on his chances to win rather than a reflection on how he'll play this week. Translation: he'll play well, but probably won't win.              

LONGSHOTS

Marc Leishman (40-1)  

Consider Leishman a Howell-light this week. Well, not physically, of course, but record wise, his results are similar to Howell, but with little more than half the starts. Leishman is 10-for-10 here in cuts made, with three top-10s. Leishman is extremely streaky and if he can find his game, on a course where he's played well, he could win this week.  

Corey Conners (40-1)  

Conners was a big-time hit-or-miss guy last season, but he seems to have found some consistency during the fall portion of the schedule. He didn't play all that well last week on his way to a T19 at the Sentry, but he posted a T3 at the Sony last year.              

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Matt Kuchar - Although he won last week, I don't see Justin Thomas being a popular OAD pick this week as most owners will save him for a bigger event. Most owners likley will look further down the odds chart and down there, just a little bit, is the defending champ Kuchar. Kuchar is on the short list of names I am considering.                      

Moderately Owned Pick: Patrick Reed - Reed was in the same spot last week for the Sentry and should again be a somewhat popular pick this week. I can't argue with this pick; while Reed will have value later in the season it's not so much that you'd refrain from taking him this week.

 Lightly Owned Pick: Brian Stuard - With high volume guys like Kuchar, Reed and Howell III this week, there are going to be a lot of lightly-owned golfers. Stuard could fly under the radar, but his track record here should garner some attention. Stuard has four top-10s here in seven starts.        

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - A couple things in play with Matsuyama this week. First, his track record at this event is terrible. He's missed the cut in three of six starts and has yet to crack the top 25. Besides, the Waste Management Open is just about a month away and that's always a great spot to use him.                        

Last Week: Brendan Todd (29) $69,000 Season - $69,000  

This Week: Matt Kuchar - It feels a little early to use Kuchar, but there won't be many better spots to use him throughout the season. I had it down to Kuchar and Howell, but I like the upside of Kuchar better.                                                    

FANDUEL PICKS 

High/Mid/Low: Matt Kuchar ($11,100)/Brian Stuard ($9,600)/Doc Redman ($8,100)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last Week: no cut

This week: Charles Howell III - Unlike the OAD format, Howell is one of the best players in this format, and while I hate to burn him this early, how can you go wrong with 18-for-18? If you want to go against the majority this week, Stuard is a good option as well as he's 6-for-7 here.