Shell Houston Open: Russell Earns Trip to Masters

The Shell Houston Open is like a trap game in the NFL. You know, when a team overlooks a weak opponent in anticipation of a critical game the following week.

We touched on this on Tuesday in the RotoWire Value Picks for DraftKings, that it was great week to steer clear of the top names. Recent history had shown that lesser guys, and not the guys prepping for next week's Masters, had the top showings. History continued this year.

While seven top Augusta-bound golfers didn't make it to Sunday, 117th-ranked Russell Henley became the fourth golfer in five years to use an SHO victory to get into the Masters field.

Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson and Rafa Cabrera-Bello all missed the cut, and Jimmy Walker MDFed. Even if they didn't plan it that way, it's a good thing for them, and deep down they probably know it. Sure, it's great to play in tournament conditions on an Augusta-like course, but there was no reason to head to the first major of the season in any way tired. Most of them had played the week before in the WGC-Match Play. It's one thing to tune up the week before the Masters, but to make a major your third straight event is far from optimum.

Those seven guys were among 11 in the OWGR top-30 in the Houston field. Of the other four, Rickie Fowler was in contention, Jon Rahm didn't contend in tying for 10th, Justin Rose tied for 15th, and Phil Mickelson was way back in a tie for 55th.

Of those, Rahm should be of the most concern. He admitted being tired entering the week, having played through to the finals of the Match Play. He actually surprised us with such a quality showing, but we'll see how he handles not only another tournament four days later but his first Masters.

Fowler didn't play the Match Play, so we think he's in good shape heading to Augusta. Rose played the Match Play, so the Masters will be his third straight event, the first time he's trying that this year after having back issues in 2016. Mickelson seemingly cruised to the finish line without expending much effort. He should be fine to contend for his fourth green jacket.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Russell Henley

Henley has been to the Masters three times, making two cuts with one top-25 finish. He has done well in Houston for years, even while success escaped him elsewhere. That's because he's a great putter, something that should serve him well next week. Henley finished last week first in the field in strokes gained putting and fourth in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Augusta is a far cry from the Golf Club of Houston, but Henley could be a good Masters long shot to reach the weekend. The win moved him to No. 61 in the world.

Sung Kang

Kang was looking to play the Masters for the first time, and it sure looked as if it would happen before a bad Sunday stumble. There really was nothing to suggest Kang would even contend in Houston, as he had zero top-10s and isn't a good putter. But all facets of his game were outstanding at the SHO. He's had a decent tee-to-green game this season, with four top-25s. But we'd still need to see more signs before upgrading our viewpoint of Kang.

Luke List

List, on the other hand, we've liked all season. He's among the longest hitters on Tour, but he also finished the week first in the field in scrambling and 10th in SGP. That's a terrific blend, and resulted in a tie for third with Rickie Fowler. Whether List will win a tournament this year, who knows? But he continues to be a great low-priced option in DraftKings, though his price will now be on the rise.

Hudson Swafford

Immediately after winning the CareerBuilder Challenge in January, Swafford missed three straight cuts, not unexpected after a maiden PGA Tour win. But since those three MCs, he's gone T38, T10 and, in Houston, solo sixth. Swafford was a great, consistent, low- to mid-priced DFS option before his win, making cut after cut after cut, and he appears to be there again.

Michael Kim

We picked Kim for the SHO because he's a terrific putter. He tied for 12th, his best cash of the season, and he was T17 at Bay Hill in his prior start. So Kim is starting to take his game up a notch – 42nd in the FedEx Cup points race -- and on courses where putting is critical, he's a great option who we'll definitely call on again.

Keegan Bradley

Bradley is not a good putter, so his T15 was impressive. But note that he did it even with trouble on the greens, dropping him from 139th to 148th in SGP on the season. Bradley is 23rd in the points race, so he definitely has DFS value. He'll make cuts, he'll pile up top-25s. It's just hard to contend for a title without any sort of putting game.

Sam Saunders

We all were rooting for Saunders at Bay Hill, but Arnold Palmer's grandson just missed the cut. So it's nice to see him follow a T5 in Puerto Rico with another solid performance, T20, and in a much tougher field. Giving the quality of the golfers at the SHO, this may be the best back-to-back showing in Saunders' career. Is it enough for jump on him going forward? No, not yet.

Peter Uihlein

Uihlein is an American playing mostly in Europe because he hasn't been able to get his PGA Tour card. He tied for 23rd at the SHO a week after tying for fifth in Puerto Rico. He's a former top-ranked amateur who was injured much of last year. So Uihlein bears watching, though it's not known when he'll make his next PGA Tour start.

Ernie Els

Els missed the cut in Houston, something that happens with increased frequency for the 47-year-old now ranked outside the top-400 in the world. We mention this only because Els will make what likely will be his 23rd and final Masters start, thanks to the final year of his five-year exemption for winning the 2012 Open Championship. The four-time major champion has two runners-up at Augusta, to Vijay Singh in 2000 and to Phil Mickelson in 2004. It would be great to see Els play the weekend; expecting more seems unlikely. Although, Els did manage a T22 just two years ago. A top-12 would get him invited back in 2018.

RotoWire Value Picks

Last week: No picks for the WGC-Match Play

This week: Winner (Henley), six top-10s, 10 top-25s, three missed cuts

We made the same 16 picks we make virtually every week, though we strayed from four golfers in each of the four tiers. We didn't feel comfortable loading up on high-priced golfers, for reasons explained above. Instead, we expanded Tiers 2 and 3, and we were extremely pleased with the results. We made only two Tier 1 picks: Rickie Fowler tied for third, and Jon Rahm tied for 10th. With five Tier 2 pics, we hit the winner in Russell Henley, but also solo fifth in Daniel Berger. J.B. Holmes missed the cut at $9,200. Phil Mickelson disappointed at T55. And Patrick Cantlay, more of heart-instead-of-head pick, didn't pay off at T39. With six picks in Tier 3, we scored with Luke List at T3, Kyle Stanley at T8, Jason Dufner at T12 and Stewart Cink at T23. Matt Jones was T49 – eh. But Rafa Cabrera-Bello missed the cut as the top price in the tier. With only three golfers in the long-shot group, we were overjoyed with Michael Kim's T12 and also like Bernd Wiesberger's T23. Chris Stroud missed the cut.

We finished third out of 57 and cashed in our DraftKings cash game, starting Henley, Fowler, Dufner, Wiesberger, Mickelson and Cabrera-Bello for a total of 483.50 points. And that lineup came up $700 short of the $50,000 limit. We don't advise leaving so much cash on the table often – hardly ever, in fact – but we really liked these six golfers.