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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Arnie's Army
ORLANDO, FL
Another week... another long-shot winner. Congratulations to Austin Eckroat and his team for seizing the opportunity down at PGA National. As we head into the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, we all must wonder when somebody from the top half of the odds board will step up! Watching these young stars is terrific, but the game survives on names and none of them are doing their job. In a limited field of 69 players, we have 22 in the top 25 of the OWGR competing for another $20 million dollar purse. Similar to Genesis, the top 50 and ties (and those within 10 shots of the lead) will play the weekend.
I am in Orlando very close to my old stomping grounds. The Bay Hill Club and Lodge is located just across the water from Isleworth Country Club. Besides being on-site, I have played the Champion (front nine) and Challenger (back nine) many times. Bay Hill has three nines to play should you ever visit. The third nine is called the Charger. The course was first designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, with a couple of enhancements over the years by Mr. Palmer. The most notable renovation was in 2009.
I believe from years of experience playing and watching this tournament live that Bay Hill is a very predictable golf course. Here's the main reason why; seven holes basically repeat themselves throughout the layout. For example, we start with a sharp dogleg on number one. There's a sharp dogleg on 10. Three plays as a dogleg left around water and four is a long, straight uphill par 5. Eleven is a dogleg left around water and 12 is a straight uphill par 5. This happens again and again around the routing. The pivotal point here, if you play some of the template holes at Bay Hill well, you can basically play them all well.
The Champion/Challenger layout displays a par 72 scorecard covering 7,466 yards. Ten tough par 4s with 50 percent of them measuring over 450 yards. The longest set of par 3s on TOUR represent one of the primary scoring issues at Bay Hill. Over the last five years, the average winning score is 8 under par. With weather conditions similar across all of Florida, I still see the softer green conditions and struggling turf in Orlando. We saw quite vividly how it affected scoring at PGA National and I see that trend continuing. Compound that with intermittent rain over the past couple of days and we have 18 dartboards ready for attack in Orlando.
Palmer's kingdom is a power players paradise. The fourth largest greens on TOUR, the field have larger than average targets. Trouble is, Bay Hill puts pressure on every shot. Thankfully, just like last week those firm and fast conditions do not exist this year. It has rained at some point each of the three days I have been here. Accuracy now becomes a huge advantage as we won't see the Bay Hill bounce in this edition. Eight-four bunkers surround the landing areas and six different penalty areas come into play on nine different holes.
We have a Bermudagrass putting surface again, but the greens at Bay Hill use a hybrid strain that is very smooth. You won't see nearly as much grain influence the roll. That's why of all the Florida venues, I weigh Bermudagrass the least in the API. Power has always been an influencing factor to contend at Bay Hill and with the softer conditions speed should matter even more. Over 45 percent of approach shots are played from 175 yards or longer (30 percent over 200 yards).
Just like PGA National's Champion, we must expect some serious scoring volatility. Eagle through double bogey is definitely in play across every hole.
- Seven holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent.
- The four par 5s average a 38 percent birdie rate while the remaining 14 holes average just 12 percent.
- Eleven holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent and all four par 3s play over par for the week.
A token cut with 69 of the best the PGA TOUR has to offer keeps almost everyone in contention until Sunday afternoon. We have seen some unbelievable finishes here over the years and based upon what I'm seeing on the practice tee, we will be in store for a fantastic finish once again!
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sunday Red
The elite players of the PGA TOUR are fed up. They are done with the politics, persistent questioning, and most of all their play. Walking the practice tee it feels like a major championship. It's quiet and all business. Based upon my perspective, I don't feel as if this atmosphere will help many of the upper echelon get it back together.
To conquer Bay Hill you need to follow through on the following skills.
- Palmer's Invitational requires power. Bombers have a definite advantage here. Count Scottie, Rory, and Bryson as recent winners.
- Rory's record here is incredible. He has nine starts, each one he's finished inside the top 30, the last seven he has finished inside the top 13, and he won in 2018!
- The rough is similar to PGA National. It is not nearly as dense as it was a year ago. I'm favoring length over accuracy off the tee. Throw it as far down there as you can and play from there.
- Seven of the last 10 winners separated themselves on approach from 175 yards or more. Five of them from 200+ yards! Long iron approach play is one key to winning, but even more important is how high you hit those long approaches. Soft conditions will help a little but keeping it close from 205 is a skill the best possess. Winners gained five strokes on the field with their iron game the year they won, and those biggest gains were almost entirely from long range.
- For having large greens, players will miss a bunch of them. The rain will give you some help, but the better you are at collecting GIRs, the more you will score. Those who do miss will need to scramble. You won't see this show up on the strokes gained charts, but short game can help you in multiple ways at Bay Hill. Scoring around the short par 4s with your wedges, par 5 scoring, and saving plenty of pars.
- I have weighed bogey avoidance higher than BoB% this week. That does not happen very often (if at all) outside of majors.
- One other note, sand play always comes into the equation for the contenders on Sunday. Our outrights and best bets will be more than capable at the beach.
- Bay Hill is a quirky place to putt. The greens are some of the smoothest in Florida, but having played there so many times, I could never quite get comfortable. I think Mr. Palmer was always massaging them. Even the members of Isleworth who belonged to both clubs would consistently remark on the subtle complexity of the Champion and Challenger putting surfaces.
- I do not believe you need to be a great putter to win here, and more importantly, you don't even need a strong resume on Bermudagrass.
- Are you trending toward a good week with the flat stick, that's my main concern.
- I looked through the various par scoring records. Winners gain the most on par 4s, which makes sense. There are more opportunities and its definitely worth giving it some weight.
- Digging deeper, winners gain almost twice their advantage on the field in strokes gained on the par 3s as compared to the par 5s.
- Course history counts around Mr. Palmer's place. Leaderboards are littered with the same players over the past decade.
My last consideration is strokes gained annoyed. Frustration is not a good motivator. I have seen too many PGA TOUR stars looked annoyed on-site. They are distracted and can't hide their demeanor. It's really interesting and definitely opening the door for first time winners. Even inside a field of 69 players we can find some less than obvious names to win.
I have not changed my strategy for selecting outrights. Instead, I'm weighing mood as much as approach play. These guys are golfers and not politicians or financial strategists. If the TOUR continues to keep them distracted, I know one of these under the radar guys on our outright list can certainly seize the moment.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Outright Winners
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
The sixth ranked player in the world, Cantlay finished fourth last year on his first visit to API.
- Cantlay leads the PGA TOUR in round one scoring; 64.60.
- Fourth at Genesis and eleventh after three rounds at AT&T.
- Great OTT and long iron player, Cantlay is ranked eleventh in the field T2G.
- A true sign of being well-rounded, Patrick ranks ninth in par 4 scoring.
Sam Burns (+2800)
Burns is coming off four straight top 10 finishes.
- Burns is ranked first in Bogey Avoidance for the field.
- Sam is also ranked first in scrambling which is key to scoring on the par 5s, short par 4s, and saving pars everywhere else.
- Ranked eighth in par 4 scoring and top 15 in approaches over 200 yards.
- Sam is gaining an average of six strokes on the field over his last five starts.
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