Honda Classic Recap: Fowler Back in the Top 10

There was a question posed by the fine folks at @GolfUnfiltered on Twitter on Thursday: "Is there a current golfer who hasn't lived up to his ability worse than Paul Casey?" To which we responded: "Paging Rickie Fowler. Rickie Fowler, please report to the head of the line."

We can't take credit for Fowler capturing the Honda Classic on Sunday, but it surely was about time. When Fowler won in Abu Dhabi in January 2016, in a field that included Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, he moved to No. 4 in the world and immediately became part of that fun golf parlor game: Is the Big 3 of McIlroy, Spieth and Jason Day now the Big 4?

Some said yes, some said no. It turned out to be no. Not only did Fowler not win again until now, he was overtaken in the rankings and in those fun golf parlor games first by Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson, and then by Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and even Bro-cation buddy Justin Thomas. Fowler was No. 12 at year's end and No. 14 at the beginning of last week.

As with most things in sports, the public (we) overreacted. Fowler is not part of a Big 4 – heck, Day isn't even in a Big 4 anymore – but certainly is better than going 13 months without a win.

Fowler suffered a crushing loss soon after Abu Dhabi, when with family members in attendance at Phoenix he was chased down my Matsuyama and lost in an epic playoff. He still notched a handful of top-10s the rest of the season – including his next two starts – but he wasn't the same.

Johnny Miller said late on Sunday, as Fowler was cruising to victory despite a round with four bogeys and a double: "You have to finish off Sundays like a true champion. He hasn't learned how to do that yet."

Social media was quick to pounce on Miller, as Fowler won by the same four-shot margin he had at the start of the round. It was the wrong time to say that. Had Miller said it the day before or even at the start of Sunday's round, it would have been fair game. Fowler had had three prior PGA Tour wins and two on the European Tour, but he had been 0-for-3 with a 54-hole lead.

Still, Fowler was fortunate there were no Spieths or McIlroys on his tail at PGA National; no one within shouting range made any significant noise on Sunday. The lead collapsed to a single shot at one point, but Fowler made a majestic birdie putt in conjunction with a Gary Woodland bogey, and that was that. (Woodland is having his finest season in years, but you can still count on him making a mistake or three on Sunday.)

So now Fowler is back in the top-10, at No. 9 in the OWGR, and five of his six career worldwide wins have come in the past 21 months. That's surely top-10 caliber. One of those wins was the 2015 Players Championship, the so-called fifth major.

Of course, the next hurdle for Fowler is a real major – you know, one of the Big 4 majors. Until then, however valuable he may be in DFS, he cannot be grouped with the likes of McIlroy, Spieth and others.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Tyrrell Hatton

They said on TV, after Hatton embarrassingly chunked an approach into a bunker, that he had never played on Bermuda grass before. The Englishman played in the final group with Fowler on Sunday and, even though he never challenged for the lead, he wound up tied for fourth. Hatton is an interesting consideration for gamers, beginning this week in Mexico. He's won one tournament, but it wasn't in a deep field and in the few other times he's been in the mix on a Sunday against a big name, he's gone the wrong way. But Hatton is 17th in the world and it surely looks as if at some point soon he will go in the right direction on an important Sunday. Probably not this week, though. He's only 25 – three years younger than Fowler.

Ryan Palmer

Palmer shot 66-65 for the lead midway through the Honda, and there was so much chatter about the re-emergence of the former top-25 golfer. Palmer then shot 73-75 and wound up T37. Palmer now is ranked 91st in the world and, while that may not be indicative of his game, he's closer to that than top-25. He may have occasional moments in the sun, but don't start thinking Palmer will be a strong DFS option.

Nick Watney

Watney is playing on a major medical after missing most of last season with a back injury. His 5-under 65 on Sunday vaulted him to a tie for 14th and continued his march toward securing his card. Watney needs just under $250,000, or 213 FedEx Cup points, over 14 tournaments. He seems well on his way to doing it. Moreover, he's proving to be a good lower-priced option in DraftKings games.

Brendan Steele

Many of us duffers can relate to Steele. He took a 9 on the par-4 14th on Thursday. And then doubled 15 to stand 7-over after only eight holes. So not only was it remarkable that his score was only a 3-over 73 but, by tournament's end, he was 4-under and tied for 14th. Steele has been fantasy gold for his backers. Whether it extends to this week in Mexico against the best field he's faced all season, who knows? But Steele will continue to be a popular play in the tournaments ahead.

Danny Willett

The Englishman was making his stateside debut this season in advance of next week's WGC, and his struggles since winning the Masters continued. Willett missed the Honda cut on the number, thanks to a double-bogey on his penultimate hole on Friday. Yes, he was coming off a T5 in Malaysia in his prior start, but in that one he gagged away the 54-hole lead. Willett is still 14th in the world, but he's not playing like it. Far from it.

William McGirt

McGirt had a career year last season. And he's not having a career year this season. He has only one top-20 in eight starts, and that came in the 32-man Tournament of Champions. On Friday, McGirt needed to sink a five-footer on his final hole – 4 feet 7 inches, to be precise – and he missed it by three feet. McGirt heads to Mexico now, and we have concerns about his performance there.

Justin Thomas

Everyone is learning that Thomas is a pretty good golfer who won on two easy courses in Hawaii against fields far weaker than is the norm on the PGA Tour. He's gone MC-T39-MC since winning the Sony, with his latest shortfall on Friday at the Honda. It's hard to win on the Tour, and Thomas has already won three times this season. Do you really think he's going to win four or even five times in one season? We think Thomas will continue to be overvalued in DraftKings. We had him as a value pick for the Honda, and that was silly.

Russell Knox

Knox hadn't missed a cut since the Masters when he went home early at Phoenix. And now he's missed a second straight cut, at the Honda. The Swede has been consistent for some time now, and this may be just a slight stumble. Knox won't miss the cut this week in the no-cut WGC, but Club de Golf Chapultepec doesn't appear the place he will right himself, either.

Brooks Koepka

Koepka is 22nd in the world and 25th in the FedEx Cup standings, but those numbers are just a mirage right now. Since finishing runner-up at the weak-field Shriners in November, Koepka has gone MC-T42-MC-MC, with the latest trunk-slam coming Friday, when he missed the Honda cut by nine strokes. Something is really off and, until there is some indication of a reversal, steer clear of Koepka.

RotoWire value picks

Last week: Winner (Johnson), runner-up (Pieters), four top-10s, six top-25s, four missed cuts, one WD.

This week: Winner (Fowler), seven top-15s, seven missed cuts.

We tabbed 17 value picks, in Tier 1. Fowler won, Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia tied for 14th and Justin Thomas missed the cut. In retrospect, picking the top four guys on the DraftKings board was not best idea. The chances of them all justifying their prices were slim, and only one of them did. In Tier 2, we got a T11 out of Paul Casey and a T14 out of Brendan Steele, but Russell Knox screwed a lot of gamers by missing the cut, and Matthew Fitzpatrick (solo 68th) was a reach. In Tier 3, Jason Dufner and Graeme McDowell also tied for 14th, and that's really good for Tier 3. Charles Howell III tied for 52nd, and William McGirt missed the cut on the number. Four of the five guys in the long-shot tier also trunk-slammed, and it wasn't pretty. John Huh, Martin Flores, Kyle Stanley and John Peterson all went home. However, Stewart Cink nicely tied for 27th.

We finished well back in our DraftKings cash game, with a lineup of Fowler, Knox, McDowell, Dufner, Flores and Stanley totaling 336.5 points.