This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,816 yards, par-72)
Spyglass Hill Golf Course (6,960, par-72)
Monterey Peninsula CC (6,958 yards, par-71)
$7.6M purse
$1,368,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
A bizarre past week in the world of golf included Rickie Fowler nearly blowing another lead at the Waste Management Phoenix Open while it peculiarly rained in the desert, Sergio Garcia throwing a temper tantrum at a controversial Saudi International and mid-tournament scoring changes as the game's new rules sparked questions. Things won't return to normal this week either, as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am hosts 156 professionals and amateurs alike on three separate tracks before a 54-hole cut. Not to mention northern California's winter weather as temperatures might not reach any higher than mid-50s throughout the event, as wind and rain could result in lift, clean and place. The lousy field includes just one representative from the top-10 of the Official World Golf Ranking, despite Pebble Beach hosting the U.S. Open in just a matter of months. Nonetheless, the stimulating Ho Sung Choi will be making his PGA Tour debut at 45 years old while Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald attempts to defend his title on the amateur side.
Recent Past Champions
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Phil Mickelson
2011 - D.A. Points
2010 - Dustin Johnson
2009 - Dustin Johnson
Key Stats to Victory
GIR percentage
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Driving accuracy
Champion's Profile
Glancing at the key stats for this week, noticeable omissions include both power and putting. With all three courses in the Pro-Am's rotation measuring under 7,000 yards, distance off the tee isn't as much of an advantage. Additionally, Pebble's puny greens can mask putting woes while the inevitable precipitation figures to result in slower conditions as well. The first focus will be finding the fairway off the tee as the USGA has already begun tightening the course, along with thickening what will become wet rough in preparation for the U.S. Open. Next up, SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green will tell the tale of short-iron and wedge play, each of which tie in with GIR percentage and scrambling. Scoring conditions will not be ideal following Thursday's first round, so for now playing Pebble Beach on Friday sounds like the toughest draw.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Paul Casey, $11,100 - Betting favorites and horses for the course in Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are obvious draws at the top of the board, so we'll examine a handful of discount options above $10,000 in salary. Casey missed his first cut since August's PGA Championship at the Sony Open a few weeks back, but he rebounded with a T2 at the Asian Tour's Singapore Open. The Englishman has been extremely accurate off the tee this season, ranking 12th in FIR percentage and fifth in distance from edge of fairway. He also ranks fourth in proximity from over 100 yards out of the rough.
Jordan Spieth, $10,800 - Pebble Beach is a prime location for Spieth to turn the page after falling to No. 21 in the OWGR, having dominated here en route to a four-stroke win in 2017. He's never finished worse than T22 at the AT&T Pro-Am, adding a trio of top-7 performances in six career appearances. Spieth may have finished just T35 during his last start at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he racked up 20 par-breakers and placed second among the field in putts per GIR.
Patrick Reed, $10.700 - Reed has finished outside of the top-30 on just one occasion in six trips to Pebble, while also posting top-10s in 2013 and 2016. His elite short game led to a ranking of second in SG: Around-the-Green, 18th in scrambling and 10th in putting from 4-8 feet on Tour last season. Stellar wedge play will certainly come in handy again this week.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - The Spaniard got his first look at Pebble Beach's tough conditions at the 2010 U.S. Open, where he placed T47 despite a third-round 81. Since then, Cabrera-Bello has become a staple in the top-50 of the OWGR. Prior to a missed cut at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, he went T3-T14-T18-T6-T11 from the CJ Cup through the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. He finished top-20 on Tour in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage last season.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Adam Scott, $10,000 - Scott could be a candidate for deflated ownership without much of a track record at Pebble, but the Aussie is one of the field's best ball-strikers and should be able to combat the wind. He led the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Total on the way to his runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, collecting an impressive 24 par-breakers in the process.
Kevin Kisner, $9,200 - Short and straight off the tee is one recipe for success this week, which points to Kisner as he ranked top-35 in driving accuracy each of the past four seasons. The 34-year-old finished T10 at the Pro-Am in 2017 and he's currently top-30 on Tour in scrambling and putting from inside 10 feet.
Doug Ghim, $8,200 - Ghim, who fired a nine-under 63 during the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open, followed his T20 at Torrey Pines with a T3 at last week's Country Club de Bogota Championship on the Web.com Tour. He ranked T6 in driving accuracy, T16 in putts per GIR and T17 in GIR percentage during the FIO.
Trey Mullinax, $8,000 - Mullinax has improved in each of his last five starts dating back to the RSM Classic, culminating with a T15 at TPC Scottsdale. At the WMPO, he was fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and hit just over 70 percent of the greens in regulation. Additionally, Mullinax has made the cut in each of his first two showings at Pebble Beach, highlighted by a T14 two years ago.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
Although only the low-60 and ties out of 156 entrants will make the cut, each player is guaranteed 54 holes before potentially heading to Pebble Beach for Sunday's final round. This not only limits the damage of a missed cut, but also breeds additional risk-taking especially in GPP formats. In cash games, the field's best scramblers and wedge players are much safer bets to play all four rounds as they simply survive through tough conditions, but top ball-strikers may have an advantage in the wind and on the par-5s.
