This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
RBC Heritage
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links (7,213 yards, par 71)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
It always feels like a bit of a letdown the week after the Masters. It's just human nature. We look forward to the Masters for nine months after the final putt drops at the Open Championship to see the best in the world compete in a major again on the most iconic course in the world. There is a little less of a lull these days, as the PGA Tour decided to give the RBC Heritage Signature Event status prior to last year's tournament, which means all the best players on Tour will make the drive from Augusta to Hilton Head Island to play for a $20 million purse and increased FedExCup points.
The RBC Heritage has traditionally followed the Masters since 1983 and provided a far less stressful week in a beautiful part of the country that players love to bring their families to. Not only is the vibe of the RBC Heritage much different than the Masters, but the courses are also polar opposites. Harbour Town Golf Links is dead flat and features narrow fairways and small greens, as opposed to the rolling hills of Augusta with ample room off the tee and vast undulating greens. That being said, some of the key stats to look at are actually pretty similar, but we will get more into those later.
Scottie Scheffler is coming off his second Masters win in three years and is still slated to tee it up this week as of press time. Much was made of the fact that Scheffler said he would withdraw from the Masters if wife Meredith went into labor with their first child, and we can assume the same will be the case at the RBC Heritage. Assuming Scheffler does tee it up at Harbour Town, he will once again be the heavy favorite even though he has played this course just once before (T11 in 2023). Matt Fitzpatrick will be back to defend his title that he earned in a playoff with Jordan Spieth last year. Spieth was looking to join Payne Stewart, Davis Love III and Boo Weekley as the only players to go back-to-back at the RBC Heritage following his 2022 playoff victory over Patrick Cantlay.
The field this week is comprised of 69 players, most of which are coming from the top 50 in last year's FedExCup Standings. After his runner-up finish at the Masters, Ludvig Aberg leads the Aon Next 10 standings. That list features several PGA Tour winners this season who would have already been exempt for the Signature Events. South Africans Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Erik van Rooyen are the only two on the Aon Next 10 who would have not been exempt for the Heritage. Brice Garnett, Erik Barnes, Thomas Detry, Chandler Phillips and Alejandro Tosti all earn spots via the Aon Swing 5 comprised of the top FedExCup point earners from the Puerto Rico Open, Valspar Championship, Texas Children's Houston Open and Valero Texas Open. Justin Thomas, who missed the cut at the Masters is dramatic fashion, just hung onto a top-30 spot in the OWGR and will be in the field. Kevin Kisner, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and 2020 RBC Heritage winner Webb Simpson were the four sponsor's exemptions allowed for Signature Events.
Unlike the last two Signature Events -- the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational -- there will be no 36-hole cut this week. The first two Signature Events of 2024 -- The Sentry and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am -- also did not feature a cut, but the latter was reduced to just 54 holes due to weather. There are only three more Signature Events after this week and only the Memorial Tournament (June 6-9) will feature a cut. The Wells Fargo Championship is the next one (May 9-12) and players in the opposite-field event this week at the Corales Puntacana Championship will be looking to gain entry via the Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5.
It was a beautiful weather week at the Masters outside of Thursday morning and that should continue at the RBC Heritage. Day-time highs will be in the low-80s with plenty of sunshine. Sunday will be a little cooler than the other three days and there is a chance we may get some showers, which will also bring with it the strongest winds of the week. At least 12-under-par has been required to win this tournament the last seven years, and given the forecast that should continue again this year. Simpson's 22-under-par scoring record from 2020 is probably safe, however, especially considering that was played in June after being rescheduled.
Recent Champions
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022 - Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021 - Stewart Cink (-19)
2020 - Webb Simpson (-22)
2019 - C.T. Pan (-12)
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017 - Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016 - Branden Grace (-9)
2015 - Jim Furyk (-18)
2014 - Matt Kuchar (-11)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Proximity 125-150 Yards
Champion's Profile
SG: Tee-to-Green typically tells the story at Augusta and it has at Harbour Town as well recently with two of the last three RBC Heritage winners leading in SG: Tee-to-Green for the week. However, Augusta has some of the widest fairways on Tour, while Harbour Town features narrow fairways made even skinnier by a lot of overhanging trees. It is certainly a place where accuracy is rewarded over distance and allows for a lot of different players to contend. After a lot of positional tee shots, strong iron players will be able to separate with a lot of second shots coming from the same areas. The targets are pretty small this week and will be made even smaller by the expected firm conditions. With small greens, that also allows for a lot of scrambling opportunities. Pete Dye courses always have a lot of challenging bunker shots and also some tricky runoff areas to navigate. Last week I was really high on players who were strong both on approach and around the greens. I see that being the case again this week with some added emphasis on accuracy over distance. Lastly, with a lot of the par-4s this week on the short-to-medium end, a popular approach distance should be in the 125-150 yard range.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
Cantlay has an incredible record around Harbour Town with four top-3s and a T7 in six career starts. While he probably hasn't had the season he has wanted to this point, Cantlay still has finished top-12 three times -- all in Signature Events. He gained strokes off the tee in all but two of his last 25 starts and can get as hot as anyone with the putter. Cantlay also ranks second this season in proximity from 125-150 yards.
Will Zalatoris ($10,400)
Zalatoris is coming off a solid T9 at the Masters where he was excellent on approach per usual. The 27-year-old has now finished top-15 in four of his last six starts, which includes a T2 and T4 at the last two Signature Events. Zalatoris isn't going at the ball as hard to preserve his back and it has led to him now ranking 10th in driving accuracy. He is still eighth on the season in SG: Approach and Zalatoris gained over four strokes on the greens in his only previous attempt at Harbour Town.
Cameron Young ($10,100)
Young may not be the first type of player you think of coming to Harbour Town, but he has done quite well on some of these smaller ball parks. He finished T3 at the 2022 RBC Heritage and is a very impressive 28th this season in driving accuracy, quite impressive for a player that can launch it as far as him. Young is also very strong with the irons at 15th in SG: Approach, 21st in GIR percentage and 14th in proximity 125-150 yards. He has finished top-16 in six of his last nine starts.
The Middle Tier
Si Woo Kim ($9,800)
Kim has been one of the best ball strikers all season. He ranks 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in driving accuracy, 27th in SG: Approach and 25th in GIR percentage. Kim also has always had a strong short game and ranks 17th in SG: Around-the-Green and 25th in scrambling this season. The four-time PGA Tour winner went T14-2nd in his first two starts at Harbour Town but has struggled there since. I expect a strong week for Kim given how consistent he has been, with eight top-30s in 10 starts this season.
Shane Lowry ($9,100)
Lowry might have needed a sponsor exemption to get into the field, but expect him to challenge in a big way this week. Lowry owns three top-10 finishes at Harbour Town, including a pair of T3 finishes. He has been one of the best iron players on Tour this season at third in SG: Approach and is first by a wide margin in that key 125-150 yards proximity. Lowry also leads the Tour in driving accuracy. Everything is lining up for his first PGA Tour win since the 2019 Open Championship.
J.T. Poston ($8,800)
This is a nice buy-low opportunity on Poston at a place he's had a lot of success on. He's coming off finishes of 66th-55th-T45-T30, but how quickly we forget prior to that he racked up nine top-11s and 12 top-25s in a 15-start stretch. Poston also has three top-8 finishes in five starts at Harbour Town. He ranks ninth this season in driving accuracy and eighth in proximity 125-150 yards. Poston has the upside to run the tables on the greens here as much as anyone in the field.
The Long Shots
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700)
Bezuidenhout continues to move up the Data Golf rankings and is now No. 27 coming off three straight top-25s. He has become one of the best putters on Tour gaining strokes on the greens in his last six starts and north of four strokes in each of his three previous starts at Harbour Town. On top of that, Bezuidenhout has been a great iron player this season ranking 24th in SG: Approach and fifth in proximity.
Lucas Glover ($7,800)
Hit fairways, elite iron player, solid short game...check, check and check. Glover ranks sixth in driving accuracy, ninth in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Around-the-Green this season. All of those will play very nicely for Glover who has as much experience at Harbour Town as anyone in the field. Glover is coming off a T20 at the Masters which is his sixth top-35 finish in his last seven starts.
Chandler Phillips ($7,100)
Phillips got into the field based on his recent play, most notably being a T3 at the Valspar Championship. I'm a big fan of his iron play as he ranks ninth in par-3 scoring, 22nd in SG: Approach and sixth in proximity from 125-150 yards. He is also top-60 this season in scrambling and SG: Putting. Phillips has the most upside this week of anyone that just scraped into this field.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Scheffler checks in $1,100 clear of the field at a ridiculous $13,200. Considering the emotional high of winning the Masters last week, if there was ever a time for him to have an off-week on the course it would be this tournament. In general I do tend to lean away the week after a major from players who found themselves in deep contention, as those weeks take three times more out of you than being in contention at a regular PGA Tour event. By that logic I'm going to also pass on Aberg ($11,500), Collin Morikawa ($10,900) and Max Homa ($10,500) this week.
There is value all the way through this field, and for sure more so in the middle-to-bottom than at the top. A lot of it has to do with the placement of this event as well as the fact that the course is shrunk down and doesn't have a lot of room for error. With so many great options in the $8K and $9K range, I think if there was ever a time to leave a little salary on the table this very well might be it. I'm expecting a leaderboard full of a lot of different types of players and not necessarily just chalked full of all the top-10 players because that seems to be what we usually get at Harbour Town.
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