This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Masters
Course: Augusta National Golf Club (7,545 yards, par 72)
Purse: $15,000,000
Winner: $2,700,000 and 600 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
There's never any shortages of storylines going into the Masters. It's always easy to start with a player that has a chance to complete the career grand slam and that of course will be Rory McIlroy, who will look to accomplish the feat on his ninth attempt. Not very far from that has to be the return of Tiger Woods, who can match Jack Nicklaus with six Masters wins this week. At age 47, Tiger could also become the oldest Masters winner, just one year old than Jack when he won the 1986 Masters. Speaking of Tiger and Jack, Scottie Scheffler arrives at the 2023 Masters as the only other player to hold both the Masters and PLAYERS Championship titles concurrently. Scheffler was dominant en route to a three-shot win at Augusta last year that included a four-putt from 40 feet on the 72nd hole.
All those storylines are excellent, but the 87th edition of the Masters feels like it has some added juice given the climate of the world of golf. This will be the first Masters since LIV Golf started trying to buy the game, and many former major champions elected to take the money and bail on the PGA Tour. There will be 18 LIV players in the 88-man field this week, many of whom may not get to play in another Masters due to their OWGR continuing to slip. The Augusta National members will try to downplay this rivalry between the tours as much as possible to keep the focus on the Masters, but the majors are really going to be the only chance we get to see LIV and PGA Tour players square off. Winning the Green Jacket of course is still at the front of every players mind, but you wonder if players on both sides will have an extra sense of pride to do well to protect the integrity of their respective tour.
Getting past all the players, a real storyline this week is going to have to be the weather. I think everyone would agree the best way to see Augusta National play is firm and fast, but that will not be what we see this week. If we're lucky enough to escape some isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, the course is expected to take on over two inches of rain over the next three days. Temperatures will also be expected to cool down significantly over the weekend. All that being said, we should see some pretty good scoring this week given the softness of the course.
Recent Champions
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020 - Dustin Johnson (-20)
2019 - Tiger Woods (-13)
2018 - Patrick Reed (-15)
2017 - Sergio Garcia (-9)
2016 - Danny Willett (-5)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (-18)
2014 - Bubba Watson (-8)
2013 - Adam Scott (-9)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green
- Driving Distance
Champion's Profile
Augusta National is the ultimate second-shot golf course. You can often spray it around this course, but you're not going to find success here if you don't hit your irons well. The margins are finer here than any other course on the PGA Tour. The difference from getting the distance just right and having a short birdie putt, and being off by a foot or two and having to grind to make par is so minimal. You could load up on the leaders and SG: Approach and GIR percentage this week and have a very strong shot at doing very well in DFS contests.
What I consider a very underrated part of good play at Augusta National is short game. Some of the spots players are going to find themselves in around these elevated greens are going to be very tricky. Players that are confident in their abilities are always able to make up some strokes around the greens at Augusta National. Things may play even more into their hands with it being tougher to take the putter out around the greens because of how wet the fairways will be.
Most casual fans think that putting at Augusta is everything and that really isn't the case at all. Scheffler, Matsuyama and Johnson won the last three Masters and I can promise you putting is not close to the strongest part of any of their games. It is really less about pouring in a bunch of 15-20 footers and more about speed control to make sure you aren't faced with a downhill breaking come-backer from five feet. Getting the speed right should be a little easier this week, however, given all the rain we're expected to get.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($12,100)
I just don't know how you don't start with Scheffler this week. All he's done is finish top-12 in 10 straight tournaments, including victories at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. Scheffler's strokes gained per round is over 3.0 for the last three months -- better even than last year coming into the Masters. He ranks top-10 on Tour this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, GIR percentage, scrambling and par-5 scoring average.
Collin Morikawa ($11,000)
The two-time major winner feels like he is flying a little under the radar this week. Morikawa has already posted a trio of top-6 finishes in 2023 and you can easily make an argument that he is the best iron player in the world. Morikawa is now second on Tour in SG: Approach and sixth in GIR percentage. He is also very much the most accurate off the tee of any of the top players and the slower greens should help his putting struggles. Morikawa is trending at the Masters, having gone T44-T18-5th in his first three starts.
Max Homa ($10,400)
This seems like an absurd price for a golfer who is No. 5 in the world. Homa is 10-for-10 in cuts made this season with just one finish outside the top 25. He comes in off a runner-up at Riviera, a T14 at the API, a T6 at TPC Sawgrass and advancing out of his group at the Match Play event. Homa does not have a great record in three starts at the Masters, but he's also never been this good of a player. The California product ranks fifth in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in scrambling and fifth in putts per GIR this season.
Tony Finau ($10,100)
I think there's a case to be made that Finau has underachieved to some degree early on 2023 after scoring three wins in 2022, and maybe that's why he finds himself just over $10K at the first major of the year. That being said, he still hasn't finished outside the top 25 in eight starts this calendar year. It'll just be about putting it all together for four rounds. We know Finau has the talent to be a major champion. He ranks third in SG: Approach, ninth in GIR percentage, 23rd in scrambling and ninth in putts per GIR this season. Finau has never missed a cut in five starts at Augusta National, including posting a trio of top-10s.
Longer Shots with Value
Viktor Hovland ($9,800)
Much like Finau, I think some people may have expected a little more from Hovland in 2023 after ending 2022 with a victory at the Hero World Challenge. Nevertheless, Hovland still has made every cut this season and is coming off a T3 in his last stroke play event at The Players Championship. Ever since the 25-year-old came out on Tour in 2019 he has been a world class ball-striker. Hovland is at it again this season ranking top-15 in SG: Off-the-Tee, total driving and SG: Tee-to-Green. He has gotten ripped apart in the past for his short game, but he does rank 29th in scrambling this season. Hovland has finished T32-or-better in each of his three Masters starts.
Corey Conners ($9,400)
These numbers came out before Conners was able to pick up his second win at the Valero Texas Open last week, so there is definitely a little price discount for this elite ball striker. Conners ran away from the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green in San Antonio, showing he could overcome his 41st ranking in SG: Putting to win. It should come as little surprise given his great iron play that Conners went T10-T8-T6 the last three years at Augusta National.
Tom Hoge ($8,500)
Iv'e talked about the importance of iron play at Augusta National, but did you know that you could get the guy that leads the PGA Tour by 0.16 strokes per round way down in the mid-8K range? Yes that would be Hoge, who is also third in proximity to the hole and 12th in GIR percentage. Unlike last year, Hoge is filling it up on the greens as well, which has put him inside the top 20 on Tour in birdie average and bogey avoidance. The TCU product is coming off a T3 at TPC Sawgrass and made the cut in his first attempt at the Masters last year.
Chris Kirk ($8,000)
This is one that really stood out to me. Kirk has had a fantastic 2023 that includes a pair of top-three finishes in January, his win in late February at the Honda Classic, and a T10 last week at the Texas Open. If you go by strokes gained this season, Kirk is the 16th best golfer on the PGA Tour and you can get him for just $8,000. He hits it straight, ranks highly in proximity numbers, has an elite short game, and is having one of his best putting seasons. Kirk hasn't played the Masters since 2016, but he did post a T20 in his first appearance here in 2014.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
You'll notice that none of the players I listed above are LIV players. Would it surprise me if some of those guys had a good week? No. The wide majority of those players have an awful lot of experience around Augusta National, and as we know experience is king at this track. That all being said, I just don't trust the depth of competition over on LIV when you compare it to all these big events over the last few months on the PGA Tour. There's real data to go on for these designated events and it's just hard to know how to evaluate the LIV results.
It's never fun to have one draw get an advantage, but there's a chance that could happen with some of the weather coming in this week. Some of the highest wind gusts of the week are slated to take effect on Friday afternoon, so favoring the PM/AM draw might be something to keep in mind when constructing lineups. Overall, Augusta National has one of the stickiest course histories of any course out there. If you're debating between two players, I'd lean towards the one with the better track record.
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