This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WGC-HSBC CHAMPIONS
Purse: $9.75M
Winner's Share: $1.7M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Shanghai, China
Course: Sheshan International GC (West)
Yardage: 7,266
Par: 72
2016 champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament Preview
The WGC-HSBC Champions has always had an identity problem. Is it the first World Golf Championship event of the season or the last one of the year? It depends. It comes at the beginning of the PGA Tour season but at the end of the European Tour season. One thing for certain is that, for various reasons, it annually lands the strongest field of the fall season but the weakest of the WGC fields. Half the top-10 in the OWGR are not in China. Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia are the high-ranking absentees, and that's a pretty big hit. Digging deeper, about half the 78-man, no-cut field isn't even in the top-100 in the world -- that's largely the Asian contingent -- so the talent level doesn't slowly subside so much as it drastically falls off the table. There still is no shortage of top-priced DFS options, but lineup construction gets difficult at the bottom.
The fact that the tournament comes during what could be considered the PGA Tour offseason, and is played a half a world away on China, definitely hurts. Heck, Thomas went over for the first two legs of the Asian Swing -- two regular tournaments -- then bailed on the big one. But any tournament with world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, No. 3 and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama and No. 5 Jon Rahm, No. 8 Jason Day and No. 9 Henrik Stenson still has some serious juice. Johnson and Matsuyama combine to own all four WGC titles right now.
Sheshan International is a stock par-72. While 7,266 yards is short by today's standards, there are some very long holes, opening the way for some of the biggest hitters in the game to win in recent years. The bombers have an edge, but not a stranglehold. We'll get into specifics in the Champion's Profile below.
Weather-wise, we're looking at temperatures around 70 every day, with little chance of rain and light breezes. That's far better than a year ago, when heavy rain and the hottest summer in more than a century damaged many of the greens.
Key Stats to Winning at Sheshan International (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation (GIR)/strokes gained approach (SGA)
• Putting average/strokes gained putting (SGP)
• Driving distance/strokes gained off the tee (SGOTT)
• Birdie or better percentage (BOB)
Past Champions
2015 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Russell Knox
2014 - Bubba Watson
2013 - Dustin Johnson
2012 - Ian Poulter (Mission Hills Golf Club, Shenzhen)
2011 - Martin Kaymer
2010 - Francesco Molinari
2009 - Phil Mickelson
Champion's Profile:
Dustin Johnson won in 2013, Bubba Watson in 2014 and Hideki Matsuyama last year. And that makes sense with lots of really long holes: five par-4s exceeding 450 yards, all four par-3s being at least 200 and two par-5s at around 600. Sandwiched in between Watson and Matsuyama's wins, a short hitter emerged. Russell Knox won the title with laser-like efficiency: fifth in fairway accuracy, fourth in greens in regulation, sixth in putting average. In the past four years, Johnson won at 24-under, Matsuyama at 23-under, Knox at 20-under but Watson at only 11-under. That last one surely seems like an outlier, so we can expect a birdie-fest once more. The big hitters certainly will get their birdies but don't discount accuracy, as there's water on more than half the holes. Still, with the course ripe for the picking, a double-bogey or two might not be as fatal as in many other weeks.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
Johnson has five lifetime WGC wins, second all-time to Tiger Woods. He won two of them earlier this year. The HSBC was his first WGC win, back in 2014. Johnson finished only 35th at Sheshan last year, but he's the class of a weaker-than-usual WGC field.
Hideki Matsuyama - $11,400 (10-1)
Our concern with Matsuyama is that he has been playing too many tournaments. However, he's been off two of the past three weeks, finishing T5 at the CIMB in between. He blitzed the field by seven strokes last year at Sheshan.
Jon Rahm - $10,000 (15-1)
Rahm has not played this tournament before. He missed the cut in a fairly weak field last week in Spain, and that was probably a good thing, allowing him to head to China perhaps a day or two earlier. Going back two months, Rahm has four top-10s in five starts, with the outlier being a top-15. Simply put, he's been in the mix every week and he should enjoy the opportunity to unleash long drives at Sheshan.
Tier 2 Values
Marc Leishman - $9,900 (15-1)
Leishman really should've won last week in Korea, falling victim to a dreadful, watery approach on the second playoff hole with Justin Thomas. But still, it continued a strong run for the Aussie going back to the playoffs. Leishman wasn't in last year's HSBC, but he logged T11 and T9 the two previous years. He's a far better golfer right now.
Henrik Stenson - $9,700 (25-1)
Stenson is well familiar with Sheshan, having played the course 10 times over the past dozen years. He was co-runner-up to Matsuyama last year, his fourth top-10 through the years. Stenson certainly struggled in the first half of 2017, but has played much better in the second half.
Paul Casey - $9,400 (15-1)
Like Stenson, Casey has played this tournament 10 of the 12 previous editions. He's never finished outside the top-25, logging T12 last year. At No. 9 on the DraftKings board, he's well worth the price, even though we know he won't win.
Tier 3 Values
Ross Fisher - $8,400 (25-1)
Fisher's game has been revitalized of late, as the Englishman has finished runner-up in his past two starts. Combine that with a T6 last year at Sheshan and a T3 the year before, plus a very modest DK price, and you're looking at a popular lineup selection this week. Fisher also tied for third at the European Tour event in China, the Shenzhen International, back in April.
Adam Scott - $7,900 (40-1)
Scott is steadily dropping in the world rankings, now down to No. 25. But we now view him differently, not needing a win or even a top-10 to justify his selection. Certainly not at $7,900. But Scott is still a long hitter, and this course certainly suits his eye, with top-15s two of the past three years.
Matt Kuchar - $7,700 (25-1)
This is simply a value pick (well, they're all value picks, as this is the RotoWire Value Picks, but you know what we mean). Kuchar is at the bottom of Tier 3. There are 24 guys ahead of him on the DK board -- including Lucas Glover. Now, we pick Glover often, but c'mon. Kuchar seems like a steal. He has played Sheshan only once, but that was last year when he tied for 21st.
Long-Shot Values
Brian Harman - $7,400 (60-1)
Harman reminds us a little of Russell Knox, only he hits the ball a bit farther, nearly 290 off the tee last season, but isn't as accurate. Harman was T62 in BOB on Tour last season, with a big reason being he was T5 in SGP. He is coming off a T5 last week at the CJ Cup. Sometimes we have a hard time remembering: Harman is No. 28 in the world. $7,400 is a bargain.
Thorbjorn Olesen - $7,300 (80-1)
The No. 88 golfer in the OWGR likes this course, tying for 19th two years ago and sixth the year before in his only two visits. Olesen tied for 10th in the previous WGC event, the Bridgestone, and that was in a far tougher field. He was also in China for Shenzhen International on the Euro Tour back in April, and he tied for eighth.
Hao-Tong Li - $7,100 (100-1)
Li is the top player in China and No. 66 in the world. He's coming off a T48 at the CIMB but more notably was solo third at the Open Championship over the summer and was T7 at the HSBC two years ago. Li is only 22 years old and is on the rise, already with five wins, all of which were in China. One of them, however, was a European Tour event.
