DraftKings PGA: The Masters

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE MASTERS

Purse: $11.5M 
Winner's Share: $2.07M 
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner 
Location: Augusta, Ga. 
Course: Augusta National Golf Club 
Yardage: 7,510 
Par: 72
2021 champion: Hideki Matsuyama

Tournament Preview

The big question on everyone's mind leading up to the 86th Masters was: Will he or won't he? And with all due respect to defending champion Hideki Matsuyama, they weren't talking about him.

The golf world has not seen Tiger Woods participate in an official event since the 2020 Masters some 17 months ago. He has been leaving a trail of bread crumbs – posting a three-second video in November, competing in a father-son event in December, practicing recently at his home club, jetting into Augusta National for a practice round last Tuesday, and finally returning to the course this week and practicing multiple times. All these instances collectively indicated that Woods would play, yet he Tweeted that he would be a "game-time decision." In a session with reporters on Tuesday morning he said, "As of right now, I feel like I am going to play." Soon after, the tee times came out and Woods was grouped with Louis Oosthuizen and Joaquin Niemann at 10:34 ET on Thursday morning. Let's just go ahead and say it: Tiger is back. At the Masters!

Woods has been rehabbing ever since his catastrophic single-car accident outside Los Angeles in February 2021. His right leg and foot were severely damaged, and the biggest question may not be, "Can he hit quality golf shots?" but, "Can he complete perhaps the most grueling walk in professional golf four times?"

Woods naturally would headline this field, overshadowing the hottest player in golf, new world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, plus former No. 1 Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka and every other top player in the world. And that includes Matsuyama, who will give it a go despite being plagued by a neck injury for weeks and had to withdraw during the Valero Texas Open last Friday. We would be remiss at this point to not mention one other superstar who will not be playing. That would be Phil Mickelson, the three-time champion who had played in every Masters since 1994 and was reportedly told by Augusta National officials not to come this year. This is yet another legacy-damaging repercussion of his highly charged comments relating to the burgeoning Saudi Golf League.

As sad as that development is, it would be a mere backstory if Woods plays. Can he make the cut? Is he worth his $8,500 DraftKings price tag? The answer to the first question is yes and the answer to the second is almost assuredly no. Of the 91 players in the field, six are amateurs and seven are the older "legacy" champions. Perhaps one or two will make the cut, but otherwise there are 78 golfers, and the top 50 plus ties make the cut. Woods surely can beat 28-30 of them even after being idle for so long, but only because it is this tournament at this course with all its pressure. Over the weekend, we released the annual rankings of every golfer in the Masters field. To see where Woods landed, click on the RotoWire Majors Value Meter.

Augusta National has been changed for this year, lengthened to 7,510 yards on the scorecard. Two holes have been affected: The tee at the par-4 11th has been moved back 15 yards, making the hole play 520, and the tee at the par-5 15th has been moved back 20 yards, making it 550. The course almost always plays longer than its yardage, making it uber-long (7,800ish?), but it will take a lot more than sheer length to win this week.

The 1933 Bobby Jones/Alister MacKenzie design usually ranks among the 10 most difficult tracks of the year, and this year rain was forecast early in the week into Thursday, along with windy conditions and cooler than usual temperatures. Length is an incredible advantage, especially if the forecast holds. That said, the golfers better also bring their short game, as things get very dicey around the greens. There are only 44 bunkers on the entire course, but the bentgrass greens are dastardly all by themselves. They are above average in size (averaging 6,500 square feet) and lightning fast at about 14 on the Stimpmeter with undulations and run-offs, enough to frustrate poor putters and especially Augusta first-timers (and second- and third-timers). The hardest holes tend to be the 500ish-yard par-4s, and the past few years those were Nos. 5, 10 and 11. Word from the course on Monday was that 11 is even more of a beast thanks to the yardage change, likely making it the hardest hole on the course this year. Hello, Amen Corner. There is water on five holes, most notably on the diabolical par-3 12th, the potential tournament-altering par-5s at 13 and 15, and finally on the par-3 16th.

Other storylines outside of Woods include Scheffler, the hottest golfer on the planet looking for his first major; Rahm, the only golfer to finish top-10 here the last four years and who is looking to take back the No. 1 ranking; and the annual storyline of McIlroy attempting to complete the career Grand Slam.  

So how should you construct your lineups? Let's start with trying to find the winner. He usually comes from way up high. In the 22 years beginning with 2000, the winner has been ranked top-12 in the Official World Golf Ranking 15 times. Greens in regulation and scrambling have been vital over the years, as you'll see in the Champions Profile. No first-timer has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, but today's young golfers emerge from college ready to compete, and Will Zalatoris came close last year as the runner-up to Matsuyama. As we always see, some pretty big names are priced in the $8,000s and even $7,000s. There definitely is value deep down the DraftKings board. This would allow you to take a five-figure guy, or even two, and still fill out your lineup with quality, Masters-proven golfers. Plus, as mentioned above, about two-thirds of the field will make the cut. That means lots of golfers in the $6,000s.

Weather-wise, strong storms are expected Tuesday and more rain is in the forecast Wednesday, not only hampering practice time but no doubt lengthening the track. There's still a chance of rain Thursday, the wind will gust on Friday and it will be downright chilly on Saturday, with temperatures in the 50s. Sunday looks like the best day -- if the golfers can make it that far.

Masters Champion Factoids: Not only will Matsuyama be battling a neck injury, he'll be looking to buck history. There have been only three repeat champions in the past six decades -- Jack Nicklaus in 1965-66, Nick Faldo in 1989-90 and Woods in 2001-02. Further, only twice in the past 16 years has a defending champion so much as finished in the top 10, with Spieth the last to do it as the runner-up to Danny Willett in 2016.

Key Stats to Winning at Augusta National

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling 
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance 
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Three-Putt Avoidance 
• Par-5 Scoring

Past Champions

2021 – Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 - Danny Willett 
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Bubba Watson

Champion's Profile

We mentioned above that in this century, 15 of the 21 winners ranked top-12 in the world coming in. Among the past 10, the only outliers were Matsuyama at 25th, Reed at 24th and Watson in 2012 at No. 16. In the past 10 Masters, every winner but one finished top-7 in the field in greens in regulation, and that was Reed, who ranked 21st). Johnson and Woods were first in GIR. Only three of the past 10 winners finished outside the top 10 in scrambling -- Woods at 47th, Reed at 16th and Watson at 15th in 2012. Matsuyama was eighth. Some poor putters have won this tournament, but it's almost impossible to win if you struggle with scrambling or have trouble around the greens. Even still, only one of the past 10 winners was outside the top 15 in putting average. That was Watson, who ranked 28th in 2014. With little rough on the course, golfers are free to let it fly off the tee. If the rain really leaves its mark, the course will play longer, more greens will be missed and scrambling could be an even greater factor than usual. With putting, it's perhaps more important to avoid three-putting on the speedy greens than to make one-putts. You can really make up ground on the par-5s. Matsuyama was 10-under total and 11-under on the par-5s (not a typo). Johnson won at 20-under and was 11-under on the par-5s. Woods won at 13-under and nine of those strokes came on the par-5s. Reed won at 15-under with a whopping 13 of those strokes coming on the par-5s. The par-5s on the back nine -- Nos. 13 and 15 -- are usually the two easiest holes on the course. But they are also where dreams of winning a green jacket can end. If we're talking about who can win, we're almost surely talking about a longer hitter. But that doesn't mean a shorter hitter cannot contend or contribute to a solid DFS lineup. As always at Augusta, there is one thing no statistical data can measure: the pressure a golfer feels on Sunday.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Scottie Scheffler - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200)
Even though Scheffler has rampaged through the early spring to take over the No. 1 ranking in the world, it's a little surprising to see him as the top guy on the DK board. This will be his third Masters; he was 18th last year, 19th the year before. Scheffler has always been long off the tee, but now his short game is better than ever -- ranked 33rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 15th in Putting -- so he most certainly has all the tools needed to win.

Jon Rahm - $10,800 (+900)
Rahm is the No. 2 choice in DFS play but the top guy at the DraftKings Sportsbook. It's hard to argue. He's finished top-10 here four years running -- the only golfer in the field to do that. Two of those were top-5s, including last year. Statistically, the difference between Rahm this year and last year is his short game. Sleep on Rahm at your own peril.

Cameron Smith - $9,900 (+1400)
Smith was our preseason pick to win the Masters, and nothing has happened over the past few months to change out mind. Unless you want to consider that Smith has won twice in 2022, and winning a third time so early would be incredibly difficult. Winning THE PLAYERS and Masters in back-to-back starts would be otherworldly. But Smith has the best short game in golf right now, ranking 21st in SG: Around-the-Green and third in Putting.

Tier 2 Values

Brooks Koepka - $9,400 (+2000)
The story goes that Koepka only gets up for the big tournaments. Word is, this is a big tournament. Koepka has not been at his best this season, and he did miss the cut her last year. But he was seventh the year before and runner-up to Tiger in 2019. After missing the cut here last year, he went T2-T4-T6 in the rest of the majors.

Will Zalatoris - $9,200 (+3500)
Zalatoris is not a good putter, which would make it every hard to win. But he's plenty good enough at everything else to contend, as he showed last year in finishing second to Matsuyama even though it was his first Masters. Zalatoris has the best tee-to-green game in golf right now -- literally. He is ranked first in SG: Tee-to-Green. You can't do that without at least decent play around the greens. In our estimation, that's even more important to success at Augusta than putting.

Shane Lowry - $8,800 (+5000)
We're into the $8,000s and there are still many quality players. Lowry is one of them. He has finished in the top-15 in six of his past seven stroke-play starts dating back to last year, the last three of them on the PGA Tour. Lowry has not had a great Masters history, but his two best showings came in the past two years, both top-25 results. For a big, burly guy, Lowry has very soft hands -- he's ranked seventh on Tour in scrambling to go along with 17th in SG: Putting. He's also 11th in SG: Approach. Those numbers are not only good enough to contend, they're good enough to win.

Tier 3 Values

Russell Henley - $7,800 (+3500)
It's shame for Henley he doesn't qualify for Augusta more often, because he almost always plays well here. He was 15th in 2018, the last time he had qualified, 11th the year before and 21st in 2015. And now he's playing better overall than he was then. It appears the oddsmakers realize that, because Henley is a mere 35-to-1 way down at $7,800. Henley leads the Tour in SG: Approach and is also 27th in Around-the-Green, adding up to an elite ranking of seventh in Tee-to-Green.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $7,700 (+5500)
Fitzpatrick finished seventh at Augusta in 2016, so we know he's capable, but he just hasn't come close ever since with just one other top-25. That said, he's playing terrific golf so far in 2022 with four stroke-play top-10s. Fitzpatrick is ranked in the top-31 in every strokes-gained category, which is remarkable, leading the Tour in the all-important SG: Total category.

Justin Rose - $7,500 (+8000)
It's fair to wonder how many more good Masters Rose has in him at age 41. he certainly hasn't played well this season other than a tie for sixth at Torrey Pines. Like another famous 40-something golfer making news here this week, Rose can put aside recent form to rise at Augusta. He was leading for a chunk of last year's tournament before finishing seventh. His results going back a decade before that were outstanding: 23-MC-12-2-10-2-14-25-8-11.

Long-Shot Values

Si Woo Kim - $7,100 (+9000)
We're almost in the $6,000s and here's a golfer ranked top-50 in the world. No. 49 Kim has played in five Masters and has finished in the top-25 in three of them, including a best of 12th last year. He has made all 10 of his cuts so far in 2022, half of them top-25s, including 13th last week at the Valero. Kim's stats aren't all that pretty, but ultimately what counts is where he sits on the leaderboard.

Kevin Na - $6,800 (+13000)
Na isn't a long hitter. The weather could make the course play even longer. But what Na is is a battler, and he's shown it time and again at Augusta despite not having the yardage so many others do. He was 12th last year, the third time he's done that in his Masters career, and he was 13th in 2020. Until the Match Play two weeks ago, Na hadn't shown much in 2022. But he will bring a full complement of intangibles to the first tee on Thursday morning.

Charl Schwartzel - $6,200 (+25000)
If there's anyone not playing well right now, it's Schwartzel, who hasn't made a cut in six starts in 2022. Ouch. He was playing better heading into last year's tournament, when he finished T25, but not much better. And he was 26th the year before. And of course Schwartzel won it all in 2011 and finished third a mere five years ago. As we tried to drill home earlier, two-thirds of the "main" field will make the cut; Schwartzel can be one of them.