This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE HONDA CLASSIC
Purse: $8.4M
Winner's Share: $1.512M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion)
Yardage: 7,125
Par: 70
2022 champion: Sepp Straka
Tournament Preview
This will be the last Honda Classic. Don't worry, the tournament isn't going anywhere. Honda is.
After more than 40 years, the automaker has announced this will be its final year, ending the longest-standing relationship between the PGA Tour and one of its title sponsors. Sandwiched in between four designated events, two before and two after, the Honda Classic has been saddled with bad fields for a number of years now, and the PGA Tour has done nothing to change that. Some would say, there's not much they can do other than move it on the calendar. But then that would disrupt the four-event Florida Swing, which kicks off this week. Under those conditions, it'll be interesting who wants to come on board to replace Honda.
It wasn't too long ago, in the past dozen years, that Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott not only came to PGA National, but won. They continued a long tradition of the biggest names in golf winning this tournament. Honda's affiliation began in 1982 with Hall of Famer Hale Irwin capturing the Honda Inverrary Classic -- an homage to the old Jackie Gleason days -- and the following year Johnny Miller edged Jack Nicklaus for the title. There will be no such names this year.
With three top-25 golfers, eight top-50s and a mere 18 top-100s, your headliners are 2020 Honda winner Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, defending champ Sepp Straka, 2022 runner-up Shane Lowry and 2002 winner Matt Kuchar (not a typo, 21 years ago). For those who think Webb Simpson, Poland's top player and No. 53-ranked Adrian Meronk, two-time recent Korn Ferry winner Pierceson Coody making his PGA Tour debut and fellow KF player Akshay Bhatia belong in that previous sentence as a headliner, here yuh go.
To be clear, the Honda presents an incredible opportunity for most in the field of 144 to experience a career- and life-altering moment by winning the tournament. It happened to Straka last year, when he fended off Lowry and Daniel Berger. We as golf fans may not like the tournaments without the biggest names, but winning at one of the toughest tracks on Tour would be a huge accomplishment, no matter the field. In the past 16 years, single digits has been the winning score 11 times. Straka won at 10-under last year. Three years ago, Im won at 6-under.
It nothing else, fans can enjoy the carnage that PGA National administers on an annual basis with water on 15 holes. Over the past two decades, nearly 5,000 golf shots have gotten wet, an average of almost 250 per year. No stretch is more confounding for the golfers than the famed Bear Trap.
It is one of the cute little nicknames that courses like to give themselves for their tough stretches. Here, it's Nos. 15 through 17, two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. On each of them, there is water on every full-length shot, and the trepidation is real. After that the golfers can exhale, as the 18th is a relative cakewalk, a par-5 at only 556 yards. Last year, the Bear Trap played a collective 226 over par.
PGA National is way more than just three holes, however. It surely is no splendor in the grass. It's annually one of the toughest tracks the golfers will play, and last year it was seventh hardest. The hardest hole wasn't even in the Bear Trap. It was the 479-yard sixth, which played more than a third of a shot over par and was one of the hardest holes on Tour all season.
Why is the Tom and George Fazio 1981 design so hard, especially when it's just a gap wedge over 7,000 yards? Let us count the ways: water, water everywhere, wind normally exceeding 15 mph, narrow fairways, only two par-5s and strategically placed bunkers, though there are only 60 total on the course. We see a lot of birdie-fests on Tour; this week is all about bogey avoidance. Actually, it's about double- or triple-bogey avoidance. There were a whopping 265 double bogeys or worse last year, most on the PGA Tour. For three straight years leading to last year, no winner had a double bogey. Straka had six bogeys and one double. Two years ago, Matt Jones had 10 bogeys but zero doubles. Im had 13 bogeys in 2020 but again, zero doubles. Three years ago, Keith Mitchell came out of nowhere to nip Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka by a stroke. He had only seven holes in which he didn't shoot par or better, and all seven were bogeys -- again, no doubles.
The greens are medium-large at an average of 7,000 square feet, though most of the golfers are just happy to be done with the poa of the West Coast and back on their beloved bermudagrass.
As for the weather, no more chilly California mornings. Highs will be in the mid-80s all week, with little chance of rain. The forecast says light to moderate wind, but check closer to the lock in case there will be some gustier afternoons.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA National
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy/Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/SG: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance/Bogey Average
Past Champions
2022 – Sepp Straka
2021 – Matt Jones
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
Champion's Profile
This week is different from many weeks when we want to identify the guys who make the most birdies. We have to forget that this week. Because at PGA National, it's all about minimizing mistakes -- not eliminating them, because they simply cannot be avoided there. We detailed earlier how recent winners couldn't avoid bogeys but did largely escape doubles. We're not looking for any cowboys this week. Make par and be happy. Some guys are better suited for that type of golf. Boring golf pays dividends this week. Hit the ball in the fairway, get it on the green, take your par or an occasional birdie and head to the next tee. But getting it on the green is no easy task at the Honda. That's why scrambling is vitally important this week. For eight of the past nine years, the winner has ranked in the top-10 in the field in scrambling for the week. Four straight winners ranked first in SG: Tee-to-Green until Straka ranked fourth last year. He led the field in fairways hit and greens in regulation; runner-up Lowry ranked fourth in both categories. While putting has not been paramount to winning, a really good way to avoid a big number is to sink a 10-foot putt for par, or bogey. Straka ranked fourth in putting. Golfodds.com posted the over/under on the winning score at 270.5 -- 9.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Tier 1 Values
Sungjae Im - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1000)
Im is the overwhelming favorite this week -- the highest-ranked golfer in the field at No. 18, the shortest odds in the betting market and the top price on DraftKings. He's a pretty boring golfer, which explains how he won here in 2020 and was eighth in 2021. He missed the cut last year. Im is such a well-rounded player, ranking top-50 in every strokes gained category except Putting (60th). He's also ranked 19th in bogey avoidance.
Chris Kirk - $9,900 (+3000)
Kirk is ranked 53rd on Tour in ball striking and 25th in bogey avoidance. That's a very good blueprint for this week. He already has two third-place finishes in 2023, and he front-loaded his 2022 season as well. He was seventh at the Honda a year ago. Kirk is ranked third on Tour in putting from 10 to 15 feet, which seems like a very good skill to have this week when trying to avoid big numbers.
Tier 2 Values
Matt Kuchar - $9,300 (+3000)
We're gonna load up in Tier 2, where the numbers -- and the golfers -- seem more inviting. Let's start with Kuchar, who has been rejuvenated this year, moving to 65th in the world rankings after a top-10 at the Genesis. He's moving toward the top-50, which would get him back to the Masters. Unless he wins this week -- which he did an amazing 21 years ago. Kuchar is ranked no worse than 65th in any strokes-gained category and is 16th in Total. He also leads the Tour in scrambling.
Aaron Wise - $9,200 (+2200)
Wise curiously skipped Riviera last week, so he should be a bit fresher than the other top players in the field. He is ranked 48th in ball striking, 17th in bogey avoidance and, get this -- 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting. That's quite a change from past years. Wise missed the cut here last year but had made three straight before that, including a T13 in 2021.
Thomas Detry - $9,000 (+3500)
There are only eight golfers with shorter odds at the DK Sportsbook than the Belgian. Detry has made his past 13 worldwide cuts and his past 14 on the PGA Tour. He's ranked 61st in ball striking and 13th in bogey avoidance. This will be his PGA National debut.
Adam Svensson - $8,700 (+3000)
Svensson is coming off a great week at Riviera, where a tie for ninth moved him to a career-best 58th in the world. He also finished ninth last year at the Honda and, interestingly, won the onld Web.com Q School finals at PGA National back in 2015. He's above average in all strokes-gained disciplines -- his worst is Off-the-Tee because of his lack of distance, which shouldn't be such a hindrance on the shorter track.
Jhonattan Vegas - $8,600 (+3500)
Vegas is an astoundingly bad 206th in Strokes Gained: Putting, but he's been so good everywhere else -- first in Off-the-Tee, fourth in Tee-to-Green -- that he's still a sound play, just like last week. He only tied for 56th at the Genesis, though that followed a pair of top-25s. Vegas has made the cut here the past six years.
Adrian Meronk - $8,300 (+4500)
Poland's best player is ranked 53rd in the world and coming off a good week, a tie for 45th, at the loaded Genesis. He ranked 11th in the elite field in SG: Off-the-Tee and 20th in Tee-to-Green. Meronk won the Australian Open late last year, running away by five strokes over Scott and six over Min Woo Lee, one of the top guys in the Honda. Cameron Smith was also in that Aussie field.
Tier 3 Values
Robby Shelton - $7,800 (+5000)
So many of Shelton's numbers look bad because he is so short off the tee. That won't be such an issue this week. Even starting so far back in the fairway, he's ranked 25th in SG: Approach, 64th in greens in regulation and 58th in bogey avoidance. Shelton didn't get into Phoenix or Riviera, so his last start was a T20 at Pebble Beach. He also made the Farmers cut and was sixth at the Amex. Shelton missed the Honda cut in 2021 but was 11th the year before.
Hayden Buckley - $7,600 (+5000)
Buckley is ranked an elite sixth on Tour in ball striking thanks to a great blend of distance and accuracy on his drives. He's also ranked top-50 on tour (47th) in bogey avoidance. Buckley is coming off a missed cut at Riviera, but was top-30 at Phoenix and earlier this year was runner-up at Waialae, a tight track like PGA National. This will be Beuckley's third go-round at the Honda; he missed the cut last year and was 69th in 2020.
Will Gordon - $7,500 (+5000)
Gordon finished in 36th place in his lone visit to PGA National two years ago. He arrives this time ranked a fantastic seventh on Tour in ball striking. He's ranked 13th in greens in regulation. Also, he's 63rd in bogey avoidance, which in this field could qualify you for the Hall of Fame. Gordon has been idle since WDing from Pebble Beach, but that was weather related after the long delays.
S.H. Kim - $7,400 (+6000)
The emerging Kim is coming off made cuts at the Farmers, Phoenix and Riviera, which not many guys accomplished. His putter is his best club -- he's ranked seventh on Tour in SG: Putting -- but you need more game to make the cut at those three tracks. This will be the 24-year-old Korean's Honda debut.
Long-Shot Values
Kramer Hickok - $6,900 (+15000)
Hickok got to play with Tiger Woods on Sunday, which is neither here nor there but still very cool. He shot 70 to Woods' 73 and wound up T29. That broke a string of eight straight missed cuts for Hickock going back to September. Yet his numbers aren't terrible. In fact, he's ranked 85th on Tour in ball striking and 83rd in greens in regulation. Hickok is also a good scrambler and a good short putter (inside of eight feet). He missed the cut here last year but was top-25 three years ago.
Ben Martin - $6,900 (+13000)
Martin is no youngster, he's 35. He's played the Honda three times before, in 2015, '16 and '18, and made every cut. Martin is a great greens-in-regulation guy, ranking 23rd on Tour. He's also 71st in ball striking. He's coming off a top-15 at Pebble and was 32nd at the Sony, another tournament that puts a premium on finding the fairway.
Dylan Wu - $6,600 (+25000)
The 26-year-old Oregonian not only made the cut in his Honda debut last year, he tied for 30th. Not a surprise considering he's 10th on Tour this year in greens in regulation and 25th in ball striking. Wu's putting is statistically poor, yet he somehow is ranked 65th in bogey avoidance. The world's 489th-ranked golfer is coming off a top-30 at Pebble Beach three weeks ago.
Tyson Alexander - $6,400 (+25000)
Some golfers in this price range are ranked in the 300s, 400s or even worse. Alexander is 174th, and he's coming off a made cut at Pebble Beach plus another last month at the tight Waialae track. His statistical forte is Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green with a top-20 ranking. He's also a top-75 putter, which helps him rank above average in bogey avoidance. This will be Alexander's Honda debut.
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