This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE SAFEWAY OPEN
Purse: $6M
Winner's Share: $1,080,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the winner
Location: Napa, Calif.
Course: Silverado Resort & Spa (North)
Yardage: 7,203
Par: 72
2015 Champion: Emiliano Grillo
Tournament Preview
The 2016-17 PGA Tour season gets underway this week, but even more exciting is the return of Tiger Woo ... wait, what? ... Again? ... Yes, for the second straight year, Tiger Woods pulled the football from Charlie Brown, er, tournament organizers, just as they were about to kick off the new season. In 2015, it was the Frys.com people and this year it was the Safeway Open people. Welcome to the PGA Tour, new sponsor Safeway! At least last year, Woods had a decent excuse -- surgery. This time around, he bailed at the last minute, saying he wasn't ready to return to tournament golf. It was an embarrassing blow to Silverado co-owner and tournament host Johnny Miller, who has overhauled the course with the hopes of getting a major there one day. The field is nowhere near as strong as last year, when little-known Emiliano Grillo emerged over Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama and Charl Schwartzel, among others. Woods was to be the headliner this year, along with Phil Mickelson and ... not much else. Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar, two lovely fellows but hardly needle-movers, top the DraftKings board. For the record, Woods was to be the 12th choice, at $8,800. He would've attracted curiosity seekers, but the smart money surely would've stayed away at that price. Okay, enough about Woods. The course has been in play on tour only for the past two years, so we don't have to look far to get our data. Silverado features some of the narrower fairways on tour, though missing them has not proven to be especially penal. Instead, the prime difficulty for the golfers lies on and around the severely undulating greens. As we'll detail in the Champions Profile, proximity to the hole and scrambling are prime considerations this week. Grillo and 2014 champion Sangmoon Bae were not even close to being among the top putters. The course is not long at 7,200 yards, but the four par-3s and four par-5s have been difficult. The winning score both years was 15-under. Weather-wise, it's autumn in Central California, so there will be some chilly mornings. There's also a strong chance of rain Friday through Sunday, with the winds picking up. Granted, perhaps not the best conditions for a golfer to make a return after more than a year's absence.
Key Stats to Winning at Silverado Resort & Spa (North)
• Greens in regulation (GIR)
• Scrambling
• Proximity to the hole
• Birdie or better (BOB)
Past Champions
2015 - Emiliano Grillo
2014 - Sangmoon Bae
2013 - Jimmy Walker
2012 - Jonas Blixt
2011 - Bryce Molder
2010 - Rocco Mediate
2009 - Troy Matheson
2008 - Cameron Beckman
2007 - Mike Weir
Champion's Profile:
Last year, Grillo was 61st in strokes gained-putting during the week but he was third in proximity to the hole and T3 in scrambling. In 2014, Bae was 44th in SGP, but he was fourth in proximity and third in scrambling. Bae became the fourth golfer since 2003 to win a tournament without making a putt longer than 15 feet, according to PGATour.com. Yes, putting always matters, but in some places more than others. Bae will not be around this year, as he continues to fulfill a two-year military commitment in South Korea. It was quite windy during Bae's title run, but with also significant rain in the forecast this time around, scoring may not be quite as low at the 15-under totals the past two years.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Emiliano Grillo - $10,900 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)
We're not a fan of any of the top 3 golfers on the DraftKings board, at least not at their prices, so we are passing on Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson. Being a repeat winner is hard, returning to the tournament as champion can be imposing. The week is a whole different vibe. But Grillo continued to play well throughout the season and, as we know, he can scramble and get the ball close to the hole.
Justin Thomas - $10,400 (20-1)
Thomas was third at Silverado last year -- in a much stronger field. We can't flat out say he'll win, but we expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Good BOB numbers last year, at 31st on tour.
Jon Rahm - $10,200 (25-1)
Rahm will be a popular pick this week and even going forward. He had a brief but strong run on tour last year, including two top-5 showings that earned him enough cash to secure his tour card.
Bill Haas - $9,500 (30-1)
Haas hasn't played Silverado the past two years, but he did finish 12th in scrambling on tour last year. And in this sub-par field, it's easily conceivable for Haas to score a top-10.
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brendan Steele - $8,700 (40-1)
Steele has top-25s the past two years and, just generally, continues to get better. He didn't have great scrambling or proximity numbers last year -- in fact, they were bad -- but he found someway to be 17th last year at Silverado and 21st the year before. There's always more than one way to play a course..
Bryson DeChambeau - $8,500 (50-1)
DeChambeau has secured his card after winning a Web.com Tour Finals event. He wasn't listed in the PGA Tour stats, but would've been top-50 in scrambling. His DK numbers weren't great last year, but we suspect DeChambeau will be more accomplished and comfortable in his second go-round.
Chris Kirk - $8,200 (50-1)
Kirk missed the Silverado cut last year but was 16th on tour last year in scrambling and 36th in proximity.
Hudson Swafford - $10,200 (60-1)
Swafford had a strong second half last season, not missing a cut after late April. That may mean nothing for the this season, but in the first event of the year, you have to go by something. Oh, and Swafford was T17 here last year and T8 the year before. And T19 last year in BOB.
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Webb Simpson - $7,500 (60-1)
Simpson has always been among the best tee to green, and now he's had a year to figure out how to putt in the non-anchored landscape. Does that mean he'll now be good on the green? No, but here he doesn't have to be. He was eighth in proximity on tour last year.
Grayson Murray - $7,500 (60-1)
Murray is among the wave of Web graduates filling the field this week. He had a curious season on the WCT, one marked by many missed cuts but also high finishes. All the high finishes came late, including a win in his final start. He also had a playoff loss and a solo third the last two months of the season.
Harris English - $7,300 (50-1)
We admit, we have always been partial to English -- without the best data to support it. But here his odds don't jibe with his price, and in this weak field his DK price is very inviting.
Retief Goosen - $7,200 (Field, 2-1)
Goosen passed on Silverado last year but finished T3 the year before. His declining distance should not hurt him this week.
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Bryce Molder - $7,000 (Field, 2-1)
Molder missed the cut last year, but was T3 the year before, He was a remarkable second in scrambling on tour last year.
Nick Watney - $6,900 (100-1)
Watney missed much of last year with a back injury. He chose to skip surgery for rehab. We'll find out how that worked out for him beginning Thursday. At only $6,900 in a weak field, we'll pay to find out.
John Huh - $6,500 (Field, 2-1)
The pickings are getting mighty slim down here at the bottom of the DK board. Huh has two MCs at Silverado, but we owe you long-shot picks and, gosh darn it, we're going to give you long-shot picks!. Huh was 25th in scrambling last year at 63rd in proximity.
Luke List - $6,400 (Field, 2-1)
You've heard of "all or nothing"? Well, List was largely the "nothing" last season. He did finish in the top-125, was 38th in BOB and seventh in driving distance. But he missed more cuts than he made (perhaps because he was seventh in driving distance). Still, at $6,400, and with a bunch of Webbers ahead of him, he's worth a shot. Let's hope it's not an errant shot.
