This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
OLYMPIC GOLF COMPETITION
Purse: N/A
Winner's Share: Olympic Gold Medal
FedEx Cup Points: N/A
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Course: Olympic Golf Course
Yardage: 7,128
Par: 71
Tournament Preview
For the first time in 112 years, 60 total golfers from 34 different countries will tee it up at the Olympic Games in Rio. Excitement surrounding the 2009 decision to re-introduce golf at the 2016 Summer Olympics became clouded this year as several of the top players in the world withdrew their names from competition, citing Zika virus concerns along with scheduling preferences after plenty of international travel in recent weeks. With no purse money or FedExCup Points up for grabs, the top four golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking will be absent, as Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Rory McIlroy decided an Olympic medal was not worth the health risk or time commitment at this point. Instead, the small and somewhat weak Olympic field ranges from Henrik Stenson, No. 5 in the OWGR, to 405th-ranked Jose-Filipe Lima, who will be representing Portugal. The group is highlighted by seven of the world's top-15 ranked golfers, including four Americans in Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, and Matt Kuchar. Just like most events we've become accustomed to, the Olympics Golf Competition will consist of 72 holes of individual stroke play. Deprivation of a competitive team aspect (sorry Kuchar) removes any chance at a Ryder Cup-like atmosphere, but allows for DraftKings to provide another chance for us gamers to hit pay dirt. Gil Hanse and company, who also designed Scotland's Castle Stuart, developed the Olympic Golf Course on an old nature preserve specifically for this event. Viewers will notice a lack of rough on the course, as the wide fairways are surrounded by native grass and bunkers throughout. It's not often we get a chance to see some of the best golfers in the world take on a shorter course with gaping fairways, but windy conditions figure to play a key role in keeping the players from crazy-low scoring. Given these details, expect a British Open feel combined with characteristics seen in the Australian sandbelt venues, setting up for dry conditions which should favor the long hitters. Long irons and wedge play could be the deciding factor, however, when it comes to who takes the podium, as all of the par-fours are either longer than 478 yards or shorter than 413 yards. Neither a shortage of birdies nor wild animals are foreshadowed in Brazil as these 60 golfers battle for three medals on a scorable course while they don the colors of their countries.
Key Stats to Winning at Olympic Golf Course
• Total Driving
• Scrambling
• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Birdie or better percentage < 150 yards
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Henrik Stenson - $12,400 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 9-2)
Sergio Garcia - $11,900 (7-1)
Justin Rose - $11,500 (12-1)
Bubba Watson - $10,500 (12-1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Danny Willett - $9,900 (20-1)
Emiliano Grillo - $9,600 (25-1)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - $9,200 (25-1)
Jhonattan Vegas - $8,300 (50-1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Bernd Wiesberger - $7,800 (50-1)
Padraig Harrington - $7,700 (40-1)
Joost Luiten - $7,500 (60-1)
Gregory Bourdy - $7,000 (60-1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Alex Cejka - $6,600 (125-1)
Julien Quesne - $6,500 (125-1)
Ryan Fox - $6,400 (100-1)
Fabian Gomez - $6,300 (125-1)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Bubba Watson - $10,500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - $9,200
Jhonattan Vegas - $8,300
Thomas Pieters - $8,100
Gregory Bourdy - $7,000
Nicolas Colsaerts - $6,900
Despite being the field's second-highest ranked player in terms of the OWGR, there are five golfers priced higher than Watson this week due to his mediocre play since April, at least in terms of his standards. However, the Olympics is a no-cut event, increasing the importance of birdies or better as Watson's distance off the tee should set him up for plenty of scoring opportunities and a high finish. His price tag, which is almost $2,000 less than Henrik Stenson's, leaves the door open for a more balanced and cash-game friendly lineup. Cabrera-Bello has hit nearly 70% of his greens in regulation on Tour this season, and another solid ball-striking week could lead to a low number at the Olympic Golf Course. Vegas is easily one of the hottest golfers in the world right now, racking up a win at the Barbasol Championship and finishing inside the top 25 in his last three events. Pieters made the cut at both the Open and PGA Championship, but his season has been highlighted by eight top-30 results on the European Tour. He could be a candidate for low ownership as well, with bigger names such as Danny Lee and David Lingmerth in the same general price range. Rounding out the crew includes cheaper value options in Bourdy and Colsaerts. The former lacks distance off the tee, but makes up for it with his iron play and putter, as he's hit 70% of his greens in regulation and averages 1.78 putts per GIR so far this season on the European Tour. On the other hand, Colsaerts averages more than 300 yards off the tee and more than 75% of GIRs, but hits just 54.39% of fairways in regulation on the Euro Tour. Wide fairways in Rio should aid the Belgian's performance, while his driving distance provides an advantage given the expected windy conditions. This squad of golfers deserves consideration for tournament contests as well, with six options capable of securing a medal.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Sergio Garcia - $11,900
Matt Kuchar - $10,100
Emiliano Grillo - $9,600
Alex Cejka - $6,600
Miguel Tabuena - $6,100
Shingo Katayama - $5,700
Due to the puny 60-man Olympic field along with the absence of a cut, finding low-price hidden gems could turn out to be the difference between winning a GPP tournament and finishing in the middle of the pack. For this reason, I elected to proceed with a studs-and-duds approach, using several legitimate candidates to bring home the gold combined with a couple under-the-radar options who will hopefully have low ownership rates. Garcia remains one of the favorites to win it all amid a season full of impeccable ball-striking, and a recent missed cut at the PGA Championship could scare some people off and slightly reduce his ownership. It's difficult to leave the red-hot Henrik Stenson out of this lineup, but Garcia's lower price tag allows for both Kuchar and Grillo to make the list. Kuchar has notched eight top-10 performances on Tour in 2016, while a relatively short venue in Rio gives the 38-year-old as much of a chance as anyone to find the top of the leaderboard. Grillo may not stand out statistically compared to the more-expensive options, but there's a reason the rookie finished inside the top 15 at the Open and PGA Championship, where he didn't shy away from a big international stage. After Cejka at $6,600 there's a big drop-off in both popularity and predictability, while the German's admirable recent form includes a T5 and T11 in his last two starts on the PGA Tour. Tabuena and Katayama may be long-shots to medal in Rio, but both golfers sit inside the top 150 of the OWGR while many lower-priced options aren't even close and serve as quality fades this week. Tabuena has shown improvement over the summer, highlighted by three consecutive top-25 finishes in his last three Asian Tour events.
