This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
John Deere Classic
Purse: $8M
Winner's Share: 1.44M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Silvis, Ill.
Course: TPC Deere Run
Yardage: 7,289
Par: 71
2023 champion: Sepp Straka
Tournament Preview
Flashback! This is what RotoWire's John Deere preview article for DraftKings said one year ago:
"It appears the best thing that ever happened to the John Deere Classic, set deep in the heart of Middle America, is the Scottish Open, some 4,000 miles away."
One year later, that remains true.
The John Deere Classic used to be played the week before The Open Championship, a black hole on the PGA Tour calendar. It was the weakest tournament on the schedule, one that often was the punchline when making fun of anything bad in golf. But when the Tour increased its alliance with the DP World Tour a few years back, the Scottish Open became the British Open tuneup and the Deere was pushed back a week.
Better players started coming to the Quad Cities. While the Deere will never be confused with a signature event, this year's field boasts golf's golden boy in Jordan Spieth, a two-time Deere winner who last played here in 2015. It also originally had No. 8-ranked Patrick Cantlay, but he withdrew on Monday morning, as did last week's winner, Cam Davis. Those were big blows. Until then, historians and forensic scientists had been frantically trying to unearth the last time a player in the top-10 in the world rankings showed up at the Deere. Alas, that point is now moot.
Still, seven guys in the top 50 of the OWGR headline the field of 156. Besides Spieth, there are Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, defending champion Straka, 2022 winner J.T. Poston and 2021 champ Lucas Glover.
On top of that, some future stars who we got a glimpse of last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic are in the field. The Deere has always been good about showcasing some of the best young talent in the game, guys who very often were right out of college or still in it. Michael Thorbjornsen (Stanford), Neal Shipley (Ohio State) and Cole Sherwood (Vanderbilt) all turned pro in recent weeks. There's also Luke Clanton, the Florida St. junior who tied for 10th last week, and the local headliner of the Kiddie Corp., Jackson Buchanan, who in the fall will be returning to Illinois for his senior season.
Former Illini star and Illinois native Nick Hardy, now in his third full season on the PGA Tour, will be another fan focal point.
One last name of note: Tournament organizers also scored by inviting Harry Higgs, the jovial lug who was relegated to the Korn Ferry Tour this year but has already won twice and will be returning to the big tour next season.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a community more devoted to its golf tournament than the people of the Quad Cities are to the Deere. There aren't many sporting events in this area of Illinois/Iowa, certainly not before college football season starts up.
TPC Deere Run has been the host course ever since the D.A. Weibring design was completed in 2000. The tournament dates to 1971, when future PGA Tour Commissioner Deane Beman won the first two editions of what was then known as the Quad Cities Open. Weibring himself went on to win it three times, but never at Deere Run.
The course has played host to a 59. Paul Goydos turned the trick in the first round in 2010. Unfortunately for Goydos, Steve Stricker was right behind that day with a 60 en route to winning with a tourney-record 26-under-par. That perfectly illustrates the annual track meet that is the John Deere Classic. The winning score is generally north of 20-under (Straka and Poston each won at 21-under the past two years). The most exciting hole is the drivable 361-yard 14th, playing downhill to a tiny green. The hardest hole most years is the par-4, 476-yard 18th. There were 17 doubles there last year, more than twice as many as on another hole.
That is one of only three par-4s that even exceeds 450 yards. They consider the 158-yard 16th to be the signature hole. Overall, the course is short, with only three par-5s, none reaching 600 yards. The fairways are very generous. The bentgrass greens are medium size, averaging 5,500 square feet with the Stimpmeter running at around 12. There is water on three holes and 76 bunkers on the course.
Three years ago, "the course underwent a comprehensive bunker renovation and competitive enhancement project," according to the 2022 Golf Course Superintendents' sheet. "Bunkers were completely rebuilt with new grass surrounds, drainage, liners and sand, which also included reducing overall square footage by 30% and repositioning as needed to increase course strategy."
This year, the fairways on four holes -- 1, 6, 11, 15 -- were widened. It shouldn't make much of a difference.
As for the weather, high temperatures will be around 80 all four days and if there's any rain there won't be much, but the wind is forecast to be blowing a bit, notably on Friday.
Fun John Deere factoid No. 1: Organizers tried to attract attention when Michelle Wie was given a sponsor's exemption two years in a row. She was inside the cut line in 2005 until a late double bogey/bogey did her in. The following year, far outside the cut line, Wie withdrew, citing the excessive heat.
Fun John Deere factoid No. 2: Roger Maltbie won the tournament in 1975, when it was known as, of all things, the Ed McMahon-Jaycees Quad Cities Open. Fellow golf announcer Curt Byrum won it in 1989. Some other winners were Payne Stewart, Scott Hoch, Vijay Singh and, more recently, Spieth (twice) and Bryson DeChambeau.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Deere Run
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Proximity 150-175 yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 400-450 yards
• Birdie or Better Percentage/Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2023 - Sepp Straka
2022 - J.T. Poston
2021 - Lucas Glover
2020 - None
2019 - Dylan Frittelli
2018 - Michael Kim
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau
2016 - Ryan Moore
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - Brian Harman
Champion's Profile
Looking back over the last 11 editions, the winner here has been in the top 10 in putting eight times, with only Poston (31st), Glover (19th) and Harman (31st) missing out. Straka ranked fourth last year, along with seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, 18th in Approach, 34th in Around-the-Green and seventh in Tee-to-Green. Straka won by two over Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley. Todd ranked third in SG: Putting but Smalley was only 38th, though he was first in Tee-to-Green.
Two years ago, Poston also ranked first in Tee-to-Green, offsetting what was a relatively poor putting week for a guy who often can get super hot on the greens.
Some very good putters have won this tournament, and even Poston and Harman are two of them.
Driving distance matters little, as does hitting these very wide fairways. As with most birdie-fests, TPC Deere Run is a second-shot golf course.
The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 263.5, which is 20.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000+
Sepp Straka - $10,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
As in his win here last year, Straka's stats are solid across the board. The second part of his 2024 season has been much better than his first. Last month, he had back-to-back T5s at the Charles Schwab and Memorial.
Sungjae Im - $10,300 (+1400)
Good thing for Im that the John Deere is not a major -- he's missed the cut in the first three this year. But in non-majors, he's finished top-10 in his past four starts, including T3 at the Travelers last time out, getting it to 20-under. That's a strong consideration this week -- having evidence that a guy can get to 20-under and beyond because not every golfer is built for that.
$9,000-$9,900
Denny McCarthy - $9,500 (+2200)
McCarthy has finished sixth here the past two years, and that makes total sense when you consider how good of a putter he is. Last year, however, he was the top-priced guy in the field, so that didn't fully work out. Now in the mid-$9,000s, McCarthy can be considered a bargain. He shot a lights-out 63 in getting to 20 under at the Valero, but lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia. McCarthy lands at No. 7 in our model.
J.T. Poston - $9,100 (+3000)
Poston followed up his 2022 win here with a tie for sixth a year ago. He's been having a great season, albeit front-loaded, and would be in the Tour Championship if it started today. Poston has missed only two cuts all season (lastly in May) and his ranked 29th on Tour in birdie average.
$8,000-$8,900
Nick Dunlap - $8,900 (+3500)
We saw last week how well Dunlap can perform when not in a loaded field. He tied for 10th. He ranks first in this field in birdie or better over his past 24 rounds. Maybe the biggest shortcoming in his game is fairway accuracy, something that likely won't be an issue this week. Dunlap still has work to do to climb into the top-70 to qualify for the playoffs; he's currently in 87th position.
Luke Clanton - $8,600 (+4500)
The 20-year-old amateur still attending Florida State put on a stunningly good performance last week in tying for 10th. He's just the latest example of college golfers ready to compete instantly on the PGA Tour. And Clanton still has two more years in Tallahassee -- unless, you know, he does what Dunlap did and wins a tournament.
Mark Hubbard - $8,400 (+5500)
Hubbard made it 19 made cuts in 19 starts last week at the Rocket Mortgage. Simply reaching the weekend won't get it done for a golfer at this price. He tied for sixth here last year and for 13th the year before -- THAT would get it done. Hubbard actually grades out No. 1 in our model over his past 24 rounds after Cantlay pulled out, ranking in the top-12 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting and birdie or better.
$7,000-$7,900
Michael Thorbjornsen - $7,700 (+10000)
Thorbjornsen missed the cut last week in his second start as a pro, but that won't dissuade us. The PGA Tour University winner out of Stanford absolutely bombs it off the tee and there is little at TPC Deere Run to induce him to take his foot off the gas. In fact, Thorbjornsen played here last year as an amateur and tied for 17th.
Andrew Novak - $7,500 (+8000)
Novak is amid his best season on Tour, with seven top-25s in 16 starts. Two of them have come in his past two tournaments at the Canadian Open and Rocket Mortgage. Novak is ranked 30th on Tour in both SG: Approach and Around-the-Green. He's made the cut here the past two years, though without a high finish.
Neal Shipley - $7,500 (+8000)
Yet another young gun we were on last week and will back again this week. Shipley tied for 20th at the Rocket Mortgage, and that was only after falling back from a top-5 position earlier in the weekend.
Chandler Phillips - $7,100 (+10000)
We backed Phillips last week when he was in the $5,000s and he made the cut. Now at a considerably higher price, he's still a go, ranked top-15 in this field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach, Putting and birdie or better. Phillips got it to 19-under at the Amex at the beginning of the year.
$6,000-$6,900
Matt Kuchar - $6,900 (+15000)
The 45-year-old Kuchar may be counting the days (years?) till the Champions Tour. In other words, it's not been a great season, with Kuchar sitting 140th in the point standings. But that's actually vastly improved after he's made six of his past seven cuts with two top-25s, including last week at Detroit. There's been no putting yips for Kuchar, who is ranked 17th on Tour in SG: Putting.
Pierceson Coody - $6,700 (+15000)
There's only one guy in this field a statistically better putter over their past 24 rounds than McCarthy -- and you're looking at him right here (sorta). He's also ranked second over that period in birdie or better. Coody has made his past four cuts. He's ranked top-20 on Tour for the season in both driving distance and putting. Our model makes him the top play in the $6,000s.
Kevin Streelman - $6,600 (+20000)
Streelman has made four of his past five cuts at the Deere and four in a row overall this season. Those four have all been in lesser events and, coincidentally, the Deere is a lesser event! Streelman is a terrible putter, which makes a high finish unlikely. But he does seem to find a way to stick around for four days.
Harry Higgs - $6,400 (+15000)
Higgs has been a star on the Korn Ferry Tour this season with two wins and another top-5. He will be returning to the PGA Tour next season. But for now, he's here on a sponsor invite. He made the cut here a year ago, and now is playing far better. We shouldn't over-expect this week because of Higgs' Korn Ferry success. But he's surely among the top 65 golfers (and ties!) in this field.
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