This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
CANADIAN OPEN
Purse: $6M
Winner's Share: $1.08M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada
Course: Glen Abbey Golf Club
Yardage: 7,253
Par: 72
2016 champion: Jhonattan Vegas
Tournament Preview
In recent weeks, golfers have played in the championships of the United States, France, Ireland, Scotland and, last week, the world, which is really what the Open Championship is. Now, it's Canada's turn. The Canadian Open is the third oldest tournament in the world behind the British (1860) and U.S. Opens (1895), having commenced in 1904. It is an especially poignant time for our northern neighbors, having just celebrated their nation's 150th birthday. So wouldn't it be appropriate for a Canadian to actually win the dang tournament? Yes, of course. But it hasn't happened in more than six decades and the chances of it happening this year are ... not likely, though probably a little bit better than in most years.
The tournament does have some big names at the top -- Dustin Johnson (who must have some arrangement with the Gretzkys to appear annually or the wedding is off), Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman and Gary Woodland are the OWGR top-50 representatives. Bigger-name-of-late Ian Poulter is also on hand. But the field drops off pretty fast after that, leaving an opening for a fairly strong contingent of Canucks, led by world No. 55 Adam Hadwin, Graham DeLaet, David Hearn, Mackenzie Hughes and Nick Taylor. The thing is, there is so much talk in Canada of a Canadian winning for the first time in forever and such national pressure to do so that, well, it's like a major for them -- while for everyone else it's a regular Tour event. Not even the great Mike Weir was able to become the first since Pat Fletcher back in 1954. Not to rub it in, but there have been some great non-Canadian champions here: Snead, Palmer, Trevino, Norman, Price and Woods.
We're back at Glen Abbey this year, finally allowing us to latch on to some course history. The host course rotates, but this will be the fourth time in five years at Glenn Abbey (2013, '15-'17), which also was the site in 2008-09. We'll certainly focus on the three recent tournaments in our key stats, Champion's Profile and value picks below. The winning score last year at one of the early Nicklaus-designed course was 12-under, and Jhonattan Vegas needed an 8-under on Sunday to get there, nipping Johnson, Martin Laird and a little-known Jon Rahm by a shot. It was the 14th toughest track on Tour last year, though in 2013 and '15 it fell into the easier half.
Being a par-72 at roughly 7,200 yards, it's not long by any means, and there are a bunch of short par-4s. But as Nicklaus is known to do, there is trouble at every turn -- literally, as the golfers will often need to negotiate the angles, somewhat nullifying the longer hitters. There's also water, plenty of sand and undulating, smallish greens. An interesting quirk is the 35-37 split, with three of the four par-5s among the last six holes on the course, including No. 18. None of the par-5s exceeds 560 yards, so it's no surprise that Glen Abbey led the Tour in eagles last year with a whopping 75. Interestingly, there were also 243 double bogeys or worse, third most among non-major tracks.
Weather shouldn't be much of a factor, with a good chance of thunderstorms on Thursday only, and little wind for the duration of the tournament. In other words, we could see a track meet.
Finally, a fun feature has been added this year -- a hockey "rink" ringing the par-3 7th hole, complete with boards instead of ropes, bleachers and even a Zamboni. Game on!
Key Stats to Winning at Glen Abbey (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach
• Scrambling/Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Putting average/Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-to-bogey ratio
• Par-4 efficiency 400-450 yards
Past Champions
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas
2015 - Jason Day
2014 - Tim Clark
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Scott Piercy
2011 - Sean O'Hair
2010 - Carl Pettersson
2009 - Nathan Green
2008 - Chez Reavie
2007 - Jim Furyk
Champion's Profile:
Glen Abbey offers an interesting statistical dichotomy. The past two years it's been the Tour leader in eagles, yet both times they were also highly ranked in double bogeys or worse. You don't often see that -- like, hardly ever. So one thing we'll be looking at that we usually don't is birdie to bogey ration. Also, there are six par-4s of 400-450 yards at Glen Abbey, with three other holes less than 10 yards longer. So half the course can be viewed from par-4: 400-450 efficiency. Now to the bread-and-butter stats: Looking back at Vegas, Day and Snedeker's titles, the most common denominators are greens in regulation, scrambling and putting, though none of those has been an absolute indicator of success. Vegas was third in GIR, but Snedeker was 18th and Day was T36. Day was fourth in scrambling, but Vegas was 16th and Snedeker was 22nd. Day was fourth in strokes gained putting and Snedeker was eighth, but Vegas was 29th. So as you can see, none excelled in each area. While Vegas and Day were both among the longest hitters off the tee, Snedeker was far back. And proximity was not paramount either.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $12,200 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 6-1)
We were actually surprised to see Johnson's DraftKings price this low, especially in relation to his odds. Johnson is twice the runner-up at Glen Abbey, including last year. He hasn't done much since injuring his back at the Masters, but Johnson did show signs at Royal Birkdale, sitting in a tie for seventh until a Sunday fade. We recount weekly the stats Johnson leads the Tour in, so we won't do it again, but he's also ninth in birdie to bogey ratio.
Matt Kuchar - $11,400 (10-1)
There are 22 golfers who've made the trek from England to Canada, and while that sounds like a jet-lag nightmare, history shows those who played the Open Championship do just fine here. Kuchar is an interesting consideration, though. Week after week, nothing seems to affect him from the previous tournament -- good or bad. This week may be different, as Kuchar is just days removed from his best ever chance at winning a major.
Charley Hoffman - $10,300 (20-1)
Hoffman has played Glen Abbey twice in the past few years, finishing seventh in 2015 and 16th in 2013. He's made nine straight cuts on the season, including T20 at the Open last week. He'll be shooting for his sixth top-10 of 2016-17. Hoffman's strokes gained numbers get worse from off-the-tee to putting, which usually is the difficulty inverse of how Nicklaus tracks are laid out. But Hoffman has nonetheless gotten the job done at Glen Abbey.
Tony Finau - $9,500 (25-1)
We're back for another heaping helping of Finau, and at this price, we really mean heaping. Finau was 70th here last year, 22nd the year before. He also was a more-than-respectable 27th at the Open. Finau has made seven straight cuts and, like Hoffman, will be seeking his sixth top-10. Deep into the season, Finau is still fourth on Tour in GIR, eighth in par-4 400-450 and T7 in birdie to bogey ratio.
Tier 2 Values
Ben Martin - $8,200 (50-1)
Martin at this price may cause a bigger double-take than Finau at his price. But such is the low quality of field -- and the high quality of Martin's play of late. He has made nine straight cuts, but of course at $8,200 we need more than weekend play out of him. Martin has notched two top-10s in his past four starts, including last week at the even-weaker Barbasol, but also at the Quicken Loans. Don't look at his season-long numbers; Martin's recent stats have been far prettier.
Patrick Cantlay - $8,100 (30-1)
All of social media was wondering week after week: Where is Patrick Cantlay? Unseen since the beginning of June at the Memorial but with no recurrence of his back injury reported, Cantlay will be a popular choice -- and with little to go on other than upside. He sits 70th in the point standings despite not playing enough rounds to qualify for the stats rankings. Perhaps Cantlay has been gearing up for a deep run in the playoffs, in which the possibility of playing consecutive weeks could tax his back. He has not played back-to-back tournaments this season, so we might not see him again till the regular-season-ending Wyndham.
Danny Lee - $8,000 (30-1)
Lee hasn't played since withdrawing after the first round of the John Deere with a wrist injury, but he reportedly did make the trip to England in hopes of getting in the Open. Alas, he was next in line when the field filled. Before that WD, Lee made seven straight cuts, four of them top-10s. We should find out real fast what the state of his wrist is and whether he's lost any of his momentum. Lee was 32nd last year at Glen Abbey. He's T25 in par-4 400-450.
Gary Woodland - $7,900 (60-1)
This might be a bit of a reach, but at under eight grand, it's worth it. Woodland has made five straight cuts, though his best was a T40, and even that was at the beginning of the streak. He tied for 70th at the Open, but was right in the thick of it until twin T74s on the weekend sent him down the leaderboard. Even though the successful portion of his season is front-loaded, Woodland remains 13th in GIR. He's even a better-than-decent 54th in strokes gained around the green. Plus he's 27th in par-4 400-450. Putting? Don't ask.
Tier 3 Values
Kelly Kraft - $7,800 (60-1, Field, 9-4)
It's a little bit of a mystery why Kraft hasn't had better results of late, as his strokes gained numbers are all looking good in his last handful of tournaments. But all he has to show for it is a T5 at the Greenbrier, along with two poor cashes and two missed cuts. But he tied for 26th last year in his Canada debut, and we're counting on his leaderboard standing finally corresponding with his stats this week.
Kevin Tway - $7,700 (60-1)
Tway has cooled since his run of three straight top-5s in the spring -- who wouldn't? -- but he's still made 6-of-7 cuts since then. And that includes three top-20s, with a T12 in his last start at the Deere. Tway sits in the 50-60 range in many stats, including strokes gained tee to green, around the green and putting, and also birdie to bogey ratio. This will be his Canadian Open debut.
Chad Campbell - $7,500 (50-1)
A lot of guys got a boost in price in this weak field, but for some reason, not Campbell. He's made six of his past seven cuts, and five of them have been top-20s. Really, how many guys have been playing better the past two months? Campbell has played Glen Abbey three times of late and his worst cash was last year's T26. He is leading the Tour in scrambling, and he's T14 in birdie to bogey ratio and T34 in par-4 400-450.
Chez Reavie - $7,500 (50-1)
Reavie was a winner at Glen Abbey back in 2008. He's still searching for his second Tour win, though this year he's perhaps playing his best golf since then. He's made five straight cuts, two of them top-16s. At 30th in strokes gained approach and 51st in putting, Reavie has the tools to thrive here again, as a T14 last year illustrates. Reavie is also seventh in par-4 400-450, 20th in birdie to bogey ratio and 47th in scrambling.
Long-Shot Values
Daniel Summerhays - $7,000 (60-1)
Summerhays is fighting for his playoff life, having dropped to No. 126 in the point standings. You can tell how bad his season started when you see he's made eight of his past 10 cuts, with three top-20s. He's been a mixed bag at Glen Abbey, missing the cut in 2013 and last year, but tying for 11th in 2015.
Seamus Power - $6,800 (Field, 9-4)
Here we go again. There's something we see in Power, and lately he's come so close to putting it all together. He's made seven of his past eight cuts, with two of his three top-25s on the season coming in his past two starts. But he just can't make up much ground in the points race. He's 140th, with likely two more starts left after this week. Power is T17 in scrambling, 50th in strokes gained around the green and T36 in birdie to bogey ratio.
Cameron Percy- $6,800 (Field, 9-4)
At his price, course history and current form, Percy is worth a long-shot look. The veteran Aussie has made the cut in the three most recent Glen Abbey tournaments, including T26 and T18 the past two years. He's also notched twin T12s in his past two outings. Further, he's 18th in par-4 400-450, 22nd in on Tour in GIR, T59 in birdie to bogey ratio.
Mackenzie Hughes - $6,800 (Field, 9-4)
What, you didn't think we were going to pick a Canadian? The Ontario native is enjoying a fantastic rookie season, continuing to pile up FedEx Cup points well after his surprise win at the RSM Classic in November. Hughes has seven other top-25s, including two of his past three starts, and if the Tour Championship started today, he'd be in it, sitting 26th in points. Hughes is a premier putter, ranked eighth in strokes gained putting. All that said, the weight of Canada will be on his shoulders, especially if he's in the mix on Sunday. Hughes played the tournament once before, missing the cut four years ago.
