This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the Winner
Location: Newtown Square, Penn.
Course: Aronimink Golf Club
Yardage: 7,267
Par: 70
2017 champion: Marc Leishman
Tournament Preview
It's named after a luxury car these days, though for decades, the tournament was known simply as the Western Open. It's one of the elder statesmen on the PGA Tour, dating to 1899, which makes it the third oldest tournament in the world behind the Open Championship and U.S. Open. Mostly played somewhere near Chicago, it began to move around about 10 years ago -- not far, mind you, staying in the Midwest. But in 2014 it ventured off to Colorado and this year it's in the Philadelphia area. When they changed the name, that was understandable; it's just a reality and a sign of the times. But when they move it far from its roots, well, then it really begins to lose its historical connection. It doesn't feel so much like the Western Open this year. Next year, however, the BMW will return to Medinah.
For now, though, it will be played at Aronimink, which has quite a venerable history of its own. The club originated in the late 1800s, and the present course location dates to Donald Ross's 1928 vision. The famed course designer considers it his "masterpiece," and that's really saying something for someone who had his hand in about 400 courses. History has it that Aronimink was named for the chief of Lenape Native American tribe, and each hole is similarly named, such as Apache (No. 1), Navajo (No. 3), Cherokee (No. 10) and Sioux (No. 16). There is more history on the course: Aronimink was home to the 1962 PGA Championship, won by Gary Player, and will get the major again in 2027. It also played host to the now-extinct AT&T National in 2010 and 2011, and that will help give us a little course history to rely on. Playing roughly the same yardage as it will now, Nick Watney set the course record of 62 in winning in 2011, a year after Justin Rose claimed the title. The track features dog legs and narrow tree-lined fairways, some 75 bunkers, several water hazards and slick, undulating greens. While not an exact parallel, Aronimink is much more akin to Ridgewood from two weeks ago than last week's TPC Boston.
Don't be fooled by Watney's 8-under round. He played the other three rounds in a total of 5-under for his 13-under winning score. The year before, Rose was the lone golfer to reach double figures, and it was barely that at 10-under. There are only two par-5s, and one of them, the ninth hole, is 605 yards. There are a lot of long par-4s and par-3s, as Ross wanted this test to include long irons, so we will be looking at ball strikers, among others, in the Champion's Profile and value picks below. The signature hole may very well be No. 1, a long par-4 that descends into a deep valley only to steadily rise into a heavily protected green.
The par-3s are brutally hard, with three of them ranking among the four hardest holes in both 2010 and '11. No. 8 was the toughest of them all at a monstrous 242 yards, while Nos. 14 and 17 both exceed 220. The other toughie was the 444-yard 10th.
Now for the field. It normally is 70 for the third of four playoff events, but Daniel Berger withdrew on Tuesday morning, so we are down to 69 for all four rounds. The top 30 after Sunday night will advance to the Tour Championship in two weeks. Of those 30, the top five will control their own fate, meaning if they win at East Lake they would also win the FedEx Cup. Just making it to Atlanta carries a world of perks, notably entry into all four majors next season. The past three years, four golfers have been able to move into the top 30 at the BMW; in the three prior years, only two golfers were able to do it each year.
Weather-wise, this is a strange week. The golfers arrived on Tuesday to steamy temperatures in the mid-90s; by the weekend, it will barely hit 70. There's also rain in the forecast all four days, but the tee times are concentrated with so few golfers, there doesn't seem to be an advantage to choosing golfers based on tee time.
Key Stats to winning at Aronimink (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Ball striking/strokes gained: tee to green
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
Past Champions
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson (Conway Farms)
2012 - Rory McIlroy (Crooked Stick)
2011 - Justin Rose (Cog Hill)
2010 - Dustin Johnson (Cog Hill)
2009 - Tiger Woods (Cog Hill)
2008 - Camilo Villegas (Bellerive)
Champion's Profile
Elite ball strikers will be positioned to do well this week. While greens in regulation is the fourth of our four key stats, we don't mean to downgrade its importance; it's just that with so many long irons needed at Aronimink, many greens will be missed. As such, the top scramblers and putters dominated the first page of the leaderboard in the National in both 2010 and 2011. Justin Rose was third in the field in both scrambling and strokes gained: putting in winning in 2010, while 2011 champion Nick Watney was first in putting. Watney was also fourth in driving distance while still ranking 10th in accuracy, an unheard-of combination. That was an anomaly, though, as both the 2010 and '11 leaderboards were almost completely devoid of distance and accuracy leaders.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,600 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
"Hi! Remember me? The No. 1 golfer in the world?" First it was Brooks Koepka and then it was Bryson DeChambeau, but Johnson has definitely been pushed to the back burner the past few months. In the playoffs so far, he quietly tied for 11th in the opener and then tied for seventh at the Dell. Not elite, but close. We don't need to review his boatload of premier stats, but we'll just say: Johnson is first in both strokes gained: off the tee and tee to green.
Justin Rose - $11,200 (12-1)
There was some concern when Rose withdrew from the Bridgestone and then missed the cut at the Northern Trust. In retrospect, it might've been the best thing for him. While everyone has been playing a grueling schedule since the Open Championship, Rose looked quite fresh in finishing second to DeChambeau at TPC Boston. And now the Englishman heads to Aronimink, where he won in 2010 and tied for 15th a year later. Rose is ranked top-15 on Tour in four strokes-gained categories: off the tee, tee to green, around the green, and putting.
Justin Thomas - $10,500 (14-1)
It's really hard to bypass Brooks Koepka here; Aronimink seems perfect for him, just like Ridgewood was. Both Thomas and Koepka tied for eighth there two weeks ago. Candidly, this is more of a hunch call, because we could roll out plenty of stats supporting each of them.
Bryson DeChambeau - $10,000 (16-1)
Of course, it's hard to envision DeChambeau winning a third straight playoff event. That's never been done before. But even if you weren't on board the Bryson train the first two tournaments, do you really want to give up your seat again? He still looked fresh at the end of Monday and afterward said all the right things, talking about improving.
Tier 2 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,700 (25-1)
I own Matsuyama in the RotoWire season-long league. He's been a huge disappointment. Every time there was a sliver of hope, it was like Lucy yanking the football from Charlie Brown at the last second. That said, Matsuyama tied for 15th at Ridgewood and for fourth at TPC Boston. He wasn't even at his best at the Dell; it was his putting that carried him, as he was third in the field in strokes gained: putting. If that can happen again this week ... Oh, good grief!
Tony Finau - $9,500 (20-1)
Finau was top-5 in the first two playoff events. He is up to a career-best 17th in the world. We all know he is one of the best in the world getting from tee to green. But lately, his putting has been improving. He's now ranked 82nd on Tour in strokes gained: putting. He still misses some short ones, but one of these days, Finau will make enough of them to win. We don't think it will happen this week, but at $9,500, he's a great value. The drawback is, everyone else will think so, too.
Francesco Molinari - $8,800 (30-1)
We could see Molinari benefitting from taking last week off after missing the cut at Ridgewood, just like Rose was invigorated last week. The Italian has had a torrid summer, both on and of the course and his life changed after winning the Open Championship. Aronimink is well-suited for Molinari's straight-as-an-arrow game (second in strokes gained: tee to green, sixth in off the tee). And at sub-$9,000, we'll bite.
Patrick Cantlay - $8,500 (30-1)
Cantlay's years-long back woes seem a thing of the past. But we just want to throw out that this will be the first time since he came back that he will play three weeks in a row. Like Ridgewood, where he tied for eighth, Cantlay should thrive at Aronimink. He actually did back in 2011, pre-injury, when he tied for 20th. Cantlay is fourth in strokes gained: tee to green and ninth in off the tee.
Tier 3 Values
Gary Woodland - $7,800 (80-1)
Woodland surprisingly did not have a good week at the Northern Trust, tying for 48th. But after tying for 24th at the Dell, Woodland should be on track for Aronimink. He is third on Tour in ball striking, which includes ninth in greens in regulation. And as one of the fittest players on Tour, Woodland should be able to withstand the rigors of a third straight tournament more than most.
Kyle Stanley - $7,500 (60-1)
Stanley has quietly crept into the top 30 in the world. He's ahead of a lot of good players -- Kisner, Oosthuizen, Grace, Cabrera Bello. That is some serious stuff. Stanley was second at the Bridgestone and kept it going in the playoffs, with a T28 at Ridgewood and a T12 last week at TPC Boston. He is ranked second on Tour in ball striking.
Louis Oosthuizen - 7,500 (60-1)
This is surely a gamble, picking a guy who recently withdrew from the PGA and now is playing a third straight week. But Oosthuizen has not played a lot of golf the past few months and when he has, he's been decent, usually in the top-25-30 range. The South African is ranked 32nd on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and is eighth in SG around the green.
Kevin Na - $7,200 (100-1)
Na is coming off a missed cut at the Dell. As we've discussed, we don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. Beginning with his win at the Greenbrier, Na has had a great summer, including a T19 at the PGA and a T15 at the Northern Trust. He doesn't have the long game off the tee that the top drivers do, but Na's short game is elite -- eighth in strokes gained: around the green, 22nd in SG: putting.
Long-Shot Values
Aaron Wise - $7,000 (100-1)
The South Africa native has alternated good weeks and bad for a month, which can be expected of young players. Wise tied for sixth at the Bridgestone and for fifth at the Northern Trust and, if form holds, would be due for another good week at Aronimink. Wise is ranked 21st in ball striking and 29th in strokes gained: off the tee. And having already qualified for the Tour Championship (18th in points), it should be a pressure-free week for Wise.
Jason Kokrak - $6,900 (150-1)
The strength of Kokrak's game is off the tee. He is ranked 16th in driving distance and, while only 141st in accuracy, he's also 23rd in greens in regulation. His short game, especially scrambling, is where he gets in trouble. Kokrak is 61st in points, so he'd need probably a top-5 to advance. Short of that, he could have a good week; he was T24 last week at TPC Boston and T40 the week before at Ridgewood.
C.T. Pan - $6,900 (80-1)
Pan is amid the best month of his career. He tied for second at the Wyndham and for fourth at the Dell. He is one of the best ball strikers around -- tied for 15th with Rickie Fowler. Pan isn't long off the tee, but he is straight (14th in accuracy), which should serve him well this week. A good week could result in the unthinkable: Pan in the Tour Championship. He's currently 33rd in the point standings.
Chris Kirk - $6,700 (150-1)
This will be a short practice week for everyone. Kirk is one of the guys who has seen Aronimink before, tying for eighth in 2011, and that included a third-round 63. He hasn't missed a cut since April -- yes, we know this is a cut-free week, but it speaks to Kirk's consistency this season. He is way short off the tee, but still 40th in strokes gained: tee to green and 18th in SG: approach.
