Charles Schwab Challenge Preview: Rose Returns

The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week to play one of the shorter courses on the schedule. After a week at Bethpage, it's akin to going from Comerica Park to Ebbets Field, though that was never really possible as they didn't exist at the same time, but you get my point -- it's a whole different ball game this week. Speaking of last week, there's simply not enough space here to describe how good Brooks Koepka has become during the majors. To put it simply, he's in a class with only Tiger Woods right now as guys who can intimidate the entire field. Sure, DJ is scary when he's on; but too often at majors, he fades, just like he did late on Sunday. Credit to DJ for the charge, but when it got real, DJ's game left him. You can blame the conditions, but if we are making excuses, then it's safe to say there is no way Koepka bogies four straight holes on the back nine. Anyhow, as for this week, there is a surprising amount of firepower in the field, and the course, while short, should provide plenty of entertainment.   

This week: Charles Schwab Challenge – Colonial CC - Fort Worth, TX 

Last Year: Justin Rose shot a final-round 64 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Emiliano Grillo.  
FAVORITES

Justin Rose (10-1) 

There was nothing special about Rose's track record at Colonial prior to last year; in four starts his best showing was a T13 in 2005 and then he just cruised to a victory. In retrospect, it wasn't a surprise, as Rose had a spectacular season, but this year hasn't been as smooth. There's little to dislike about Rose this week, but I'm not sure he should be favored. In addition, Rose has a lot of value the rest of the way, which means it might be best just to look elsewhere this week.  

Jon Rahm (12-1)   

When you think of a short/shot-maker's course, Jon Rahm isn't the first name that comes to mind, but one look at his results here and your perception changes. In two starts here, Rahm has a T5 and a T2, proving that he has more in his bag than just a big driver. Rahm isn't quite ready to win a major, but events like these are right in his wheel house. If you haven't used him yet in the OAD, he's definitely on the short list this week.     

Jordan Spieth (12-1) 

It's amazing what one good week does to a player's odds. We haven't seen odds this low on Spieth in quite a while, but that's what a top-5 at a major will do for you. Besides, the public has been itching to see Spieth get his game back, which means that oddsmakers need to protect themselves. In this case, the odds are still probably a little too steep, as Spieth isn't quite there yet. The course sets up nicely for him and his track record here is very solid, but his game isn't all back just yet.      

MID-TIER GOLFERS
                       
Francesco Molinari (16-1) 

I wasn't a big fan of Molinari last week because of the length of Bethpage, but that's not an issue this week as Colonial puts a premium on ball-striking, and that's exactly Molinari's wheelhouse. Molinari has no track record at this event, which leaves the possibility that he just won't take to this track. Given his recent history, though, that seems highly unlikely.   

Xander Schauffele (16-1) 

There is no shortage of people in the golf world that expect big things from Schauffele, and you can count me among that group. Schauffele has done his best work at second-tier events, tournaments just below a major and just above a regular Tour stop; and while this doesn't qualify as one of those, I think he'll bring some momentum into this week. Schauffele never quite threatened last week, but he was in the pack, barely off the pace all week. His track record here leaves something to be desired, but that could help your cause, as he might be overlooked. 

Kevin Kisner (25-1) 

For anyone that took Kisner last week, this pick is an insult. Not only did Kisner miss the cut, but he missed it by a county mile. Like Molinari though, Kisner's game is not suited to the long courses. It's suited to tracks like Colonial, as evidence by his track record here. Kisner won this event in 2017 and he posted top-10 the two years prior. Kisner gets back on track this week.      

LONG SHOTS

Zach Johnson (60-1)  

What do I always say about the long shots? Just give me a chance at a win. Johnson surely has a chance to win this week because he's already done it here -- twice! His more recent results have left a lot to be desired, but his game as a whole has struggled during that time. He's not the guy he used to be, but he still has enough in the tank to make a run from time to time and what better place to do it that Colonial?  

Danny Lee (80-1) 

Lee runs about as hot and cold as anyone on the PGA Tour. His standard MO is to play well for a few weeks, then play awfully for a month or so -- rinse and repeat. Last week, we got to see this phenomenon all before the weekend even started at the PGA Championship. Lee kept pace with Brooks Koepka for an entire day, only to lose a bundle of strokes on the front nine Friday. He did make a slight recovery after that, but soon faded on the weekend. With that said, I think he might be running hot right now if not for having to battle Bethpage last week.   

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Jon Rahm - He's not the favorite, technically, but it will be hard to avoid the track record here for many OAD players. He's coming off a missed cut last week at the PGA Championship, but let's face it, anything accomplished last week can almost be tossed out the window as this is such a different course. Rahm will find his previous Colonial form this week and be in contention late Sunday.         

Moderately Owned Pick: Justin Rose - If he were in better form heading into this week, Rose would likely be the most popular pick, but as it is, I think there will be enough people looking elsewhere that there will be some opportunity to gain ground if you take Rose. The question is, do you want to burn Rose outside of a major? If you have Tiger or DJ already pegged for the U.S. Open, then perhaps you can afford to use Rose here.      

Lightly Owned Pick: Danny Lee - With so many big guns in the field this week and a great second-tier option like Kisner, not many people will be on Lee this week, which means there's great opportunity to make up ground if he plays well. In addition to flashing some game last week, Lee also has a solid track record here with two top-10s in his past four starts and nothing worse than a T22.             

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - People sure like Finau on the whole, and I guess I can't blame them, he does look impressive. But if I'm being honest, the results have not met the hype to this point in his career. He just hasn't produced in the win column. That's not to say that he won't at some point, but maybe it's time to dial back the expectations a tad. As for this week, this doesn't feel like a good track for Finau and the results are mixed as he's made the cut in all three of his starts here, but he's produced only one top-20.              

Last Week: Brooks Koepka (1) - $1,980,000; Season - $6,367,578  

This Week: Danny Lee - That's right, I'm going for it. Mind you, this has more to do with my position than my preference for the player, as I would likely go with Kisner if I thought he'd be overlooked this week. As it is, though, I'll take Lee, who has the potential to hang around. If nothing else, when Lee is on he's actually reliable, and I'm hoping that the flashes from last week mean he's on his game right now.                                        

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Jon Rahm ($12,000)/Kevin Kisner ($10,500)/Danny Lee ($8,700) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last Week: Brooks Koepka - (1); Streak - 2 

This Week: Jordan Spieth - Normally I'd save Spieth for a big spot in this format, but he's obviously not as reliable as he used to be in those events. With that said, he's been very reliable here, and his game is about as good now as it's been in a while. I don't feel great about this pick, but considering his current form and the size of the track, I'm feeling pretty confident that he'll at least make it to the weekend.