BMW Championship Preview: Brooks Looks for Big Lead

The PGA Tour heads to Medinah this week for the penultimate event of the 2018-19 season. The top 70 from last week's FedEx Cup Playoff opener — actually 69 since Kevin Na withdrew — will compete this week, with the top 30 moving onto the Tour Championship next week. 

The focus, though, will be at the top, where Brooks Koepka resides as the FedEx points leader. If he holds that lead heading into next week, he'll be the benefactor of 10 strokes to start the Tour Championship, thanks to new rules this year for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Koepka is pretty good when leading, but he's better when facing a challenge. Perhaps he'd be better off from the second or third spot? Whatever the case, this week will have a huge impact on the Tour Championship, and the players know it. 

With that in mind, you'd expect the cream to rise to the top, but that didn't exactly happen last week, because, well, golf. Can we expect anything different this week? There's little course history in play as Medinah was used for the 2012 Ryder Cup and the 2006 PGA Championship, which were obviously held under different course conditions. In other words, no, there's really no course history to consider.

This Week: BMW Championship – Medinah Country Club, Medinah, Ill.

Last Year: Keegan Bradley shot a final-round 64 on his way to a playoff victory over Justin Rose.  

FAVORITES

Brooks Koepka (8-1) 

It's funny, Koepka is the only golfer on the PGA Tour who is incapable of having a bad day or an "off" week. If he doesn't play well it's because he doesn't care, right? I'm as guilty as anyone of making this assumption, but it's not my fault! Koepka is so good when he wants to be that when he's not, it's hard to imagine that his game is off — it must be a lack of focus! I think it's mostly true, though, that most of his failures are due to lack of focus or interest, but yes, from time to time, I'll admit, he might just be off. As for this week's event, while it's certainly not as important as next week's, I'm sure Koepka would like to be in the pole position at the start of the Tour Championship, which means he needs to play well this week.     

Rory McIlroy (8-1)   

One big change in the odds this week from last is that McIlroy is the co-favorite. Last week, there was some space between McIlroy and Koepka. Does that help McIlroy's cause this week? Probably not, but he did play pretty well last week, better than Koepka anyway. McIlroy needs to start fast again this week and avoid Koepka on the weekend if possible.

Jon Rahm (10-1) 

Of the favorites listed, Rahm had the best chance to win last week, but obviously, it didn't pan out. Rahm is no stranger to contending, but more often than not, even when in a great spot, something happens on Sunday and he's no longer in contention. He's not alone — there are few closers on the PGA Tour these days — and perhaps it seems like Rahm has let more events slip away than most, but that's only because he gives himself a chance to win about as much anyone on the PGA Tour.              

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Justin Rose (16-1) 

I'd say that Rose is rounding into form, but he's perpetually rounding into form. He's rarely off his game for more than a start or two and is usually in the mix; it's just a matter of whether he closes or not. Last week he put himself in position but didn't close. This week could be different as he really turned up his game at this time last year. Rose ascended to the top of the world rankings after this event last year, and while he's well off of that mark now, his game isn't that far behind where it was a year ago.            

Patrick Cantlay (18-1) 

It's interesting, Cantlay was 20-1 at this point last week, and even against a tighter field this week the odds-makers like his chances even more. Perhaps that has something to do with a lack of course history among the rest of the field. Most of the guys in the field this week are playing this course for the first time in a normal PGA Tour setting. Cantlay isn't among the elite golfers yet, but if he keeps his current trajectory, he'll be there at some point. Unlike many of the top players, Cantlay is a grinder, he just doesn't throw in the towel. Even if he starts poorly, he generally makes a run at some point.        

Jordan Spieth (30-1) 

I'm as shocked as anyone to see Spieth here (yes, I make these lists myself). What I mean is, Spieth has played so poorly on the weekend for most of the season that I would have never thought he'd be worthy of a spot on this list. But after last week's performance, I think he actually has a shot at doing something special this week. While he didn't put two good rounds together last week, he was able to get over his final-round hurdle by posting a 67.

LONGSHOTS

Brandt Snedeker (60-1)  

60-1 for a guy who was near the lead for most of the weekend? OK. Sure, Snedeker has an uphill climb against a field like this, but he was able to put himself in a spot to win last week, but couldn't sustain his momentum through Sunday. Snedeker has always been a streaky golfer, and if he can carry any of his game over from last week, he'll again have a shot to win.          

Abraham Ancer (80-1)  

It seems crazy to think a guy like Ancer can win this week, but then again, look how close he came last week. Ancer is no stranger to playing well at this time of the year either as his best run last season came late in the regular season. Ancer has plenty of game to hang with the big boys and even if he doesn't win this week, he should show well.        

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Jon Rahm - As mentioned last week, it's nearly impossible to gauge ownership at this stage of the season, but of the top-3 favorites, Rahm is the most likely to be available on a OAD team. I can't argue with this pick as Rahm appears to be in good form. The question, of course, is whether he close against a field like this.              

Moderately Owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - There probably isn't an ownership question for Spieth, like there are for many others this week, but are OAD owners willing to pull the trigger on him this week. I think his performance last week made a believer out of enough OAD owners that he'll be a somewhat popular pick this week. Even if he can't close this week, he should be in the mix long enough to cash a decent check.          

Lightly Owned Pick: Abraham Ancer - There are two scenarios in which Ancer could be your play this week. The first is if you went chalk the entire season and you have no one left from the top 30. The second, and more likely scenario, is that you need to make up a big chunk this week and you have to avoid all likely options in front of you. Either way, Ancer is a solid pick as he will show up this week and likely contend again.                     

Buyer Beware: Tommy Fleetwood - Perhaps I'm a little bitter about his figurative no-show last week, but as someone who followed nearly every shot of his last week, I can say with certainty that his game was way off. Whether his game looks better or not this week will obviously tell the tale, but from the looks of it last week, he has a lot of work to do in the three days prior to teeing off  Thursday.                    

Last Week: Tommy Fleetwood (T43) - $26,565; Season - $7,146,392  

This Week: Rickie Fowler - He's not exactly coming in hot, but he is only two starts removed from a pretty good effort at the Open Championship. He's not in my top-10 picks this week, but my entire top 10 has been used already. I know what you're thinking, "why not use Ancer?" Well, I used him last fall. Trust me, I've checked and checked again; I just don't have a lot of good options this week.

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Justin Rose ($11,400)/Jordan Spieth ($10,600)/Abraham Ancer ($8,700) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last Week: Tommy Fleetwood - (T43); Streak - 2 

This Week: no cut