Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven picks and tools that have helped pool players win at more than three times the expected rate.
The PGA Tour's elite gather at the legendary Pebble Beach Golf Links this week for the first Signature Event of 2025, bringing a star-studded field and an enhanced $20 million purse to the California coast.
The tournament's elevated status and substantial $3.6 million winner's share make it a crucial decision point for One and Done pool participants.
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Tournament Details at a Glance
This year's event showcases significant changes that pool players should note:
- Limited field of 80 competitors drawn from the Tour's top performers
- Play alternates between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill for opening rounds
- Guaranteed four rounds with no cut line
- Celebrity pro-am format for first 36 holes
- Winner takes home $3.6 million from a $20 million total purse
AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done Picks: Field Overview
Before diving into the Pebble Beach One and Done picks, it's important to understand the moving parts as we head into this tournament.
For starters, several top players are making their first PGA Tour appearances of 2025. Others are carrying momentum from strong January performances, while a handful of golfers hold exceptional course history at Pebble Beach.
Elite Players Making Their 2025 Debuts
The tournament marks the season's first appearance for several top-ranked players:
- World #1 Scottie Scheffler returns from hand injury recovery
- Rory McIlroy shifts from his Dubai campaign to PGA Tour action
- Jordan Spieth aims to recapture past Pebble Beach success
- European stars Tommy Fleetwood and Min Woo Lee begin their U.S. seasons
January's Standout Performers
Recent tournament results highlight several players in prime form:
- The Sentry champion Hideki Matsuyama
- American Express runner-up Justin Thomas
- Patrick Cantlay, with consecutive strong showings
- American Express breakthrough winner Sepp Straka
Past Success Stories
Players with notable Pebble Beach achievements include:
- Ludvig Aberg – second last year, outstanding -16 in three rounds
- Patrick Cantlay – top 12 in three of last four years
- Justin Rose – 2023 champ, 11th last year
- Tom Hoge – 2022 champ, two other top-12 finishes
Pebble Beach One and Done Pick Popularity
With this being the first Signature Event of 2025, understanding projected player popularity is crucial for making strategic One and Done picks.
Here's what our analysis shows in terms of average pick popularity heading into the event:
- Patrick Cantlay (15%+)
- Ludvig Aberg (8-14%)
- Collin Morikawa (8-14%)
- Justin Thomas (8-14%)
- Jason Day (4-7%)
- Scottie Scheffler (1-3%)
- Rory McIlroy (1-3%)
- Hideki Matsuyama (1-3%)
- Sungjae Im (1-3%)
- Sam Burns (1-3%)
- Tommy Fleetwood (1-3%)
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Should You Pick or Save Scottie Scheffler?
The big question this week revolves around Scottie Scheffler. Despite leading betting markets at +450, his average popularity remains surprisingly low across pools. Note: this could be different depending on the pool you are in, but he's getting picked at a low rate on average. Either way, it creates an intriguing opportunity, especially if you have multiple entries in your pool.
The case for using Scheffler now revolves around elite winning potential at this week's event and his unusually low expected pick levels. He's also a strong course fit with his precision game.
If Not Scheffler, Then Who?
The case against using Scheffler centers on opportunity cost. While his odds are strong, several upcoming Signature Events offer even larger purses—tournaments where Scheffler has historically excelled. Additionally, his recent hand injury adds uncertainty to his form.
While Scheffler offers value at potential low ownership, alternatives like Cantlay, Thomas, or Aberg present compelling cases for those looking to preserve the world #1 for future events.
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