2025 Sony Open in Hawaii Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 8, 2025

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads over from Maui to Honolulu for this week's Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club. The first full field event of the year is headlined by last week's winner and tournament favorite Hideki Matsuyama at 9-1 odds. Hosted at Waialae since its inception in 1965, the field consists of eight of the top-25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Last year, Grayson Murray won at longshot odds of 400-1 with a birdie on the first playoff hole over Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An.

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Course Overview

Par 70, 7,044 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last five years.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.2
SG: Approach: 22.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 13.6
SG: Putting: 18.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.8
Driving Distance: 27.8
Driving Accuracy: 26.6

One of the things you'll notice from a quick look at the stats above is that unlike most courses, there isn't a specific metric that really stands out. One of the shortest courses on Tour at just over 7,000 yards, the venue has six dogleg holes and players are faced with moderately sized fairways that average 35 yards wide and are surrounded by average three inch rough. Combine that with tree-lined fairways and water in play off the tee on a few holes, and there's more of a premium on accuracy over distance. I wouldn't call this a birdie-fest, but half of the holes play under par and the two par-5s play short and are easy holes by Tour standards. The winner has led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in back-to-back years, so that's the stat I'd key in on. I'll also look towards those that hit their irons well from 150-200 yards, with a lot of approach shots coming in that range.

Waialae Warriors

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Waialae Country Club since 2020.

An will be making his third trip to Honolulu following a T12 result in his debut in 2022 and a playoff loss last year in which he missed a four-foot birdie putt to extend the playoff. Nevertheless, he's made significant strides on the greens and it helped lead to his best season on Tour last year. The only concern is that An was a mediocre T32 last week. He enters the week at 28-1 odds. Another player that's shown form here is Henley, who won the event in his debut back in 2013 and more recently has put up a pair of top-25s over his last three trips. Coming off arguably his best season on Tour in which he finished tied for fourth at the TOUR Championship, Henley's combination of accurate driving, elite iron play and putting is an excellent fit for Waialae.

Flushers Only

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

Kitayama's tee to green form at the end of last year has him easily at the top here as he gained over a stroke per round on approach in four of his last five tournaments, resulting in three top-10 finishes. The oddsmakers are giving him respect at 35-1 odds, and he's also coming off his best finish at the event last year (T24) that was highlighted by a second-round 62. Meanwhile, the lone player to appear on both lists is Matsuyama, who I mentioned in this same section a week ago. The 2022 Sony Open champion has made eight consecutive cuts here and last week's win marked his third victory across his last 16 tournaments. It's difficult to find a weakness in Matsuayama's game as he ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green last year and has looked much better on the greens.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Outright Picks

Tom Kim (20-1)

After winning in each of his first two years on Tour, Kim didn't win last year but was close, losing in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers. His game looks to be in good form, as he finished second in his lone DP World Tour start this fall and was runner-up at the Hero last month.

Keegan Bradley (25-1)

Bradley narrowly missed a birdie putt on the 72nd hole to win in regulation last year, and he has a good track record here with three top-15s over his last five appearances. The 2025 Ryder Cup captain is playing well enough to make the team.

Daniel Berger (50-1)

It was a slow start to 2024 for Berger after returning from an 18-month injury layoff, but he started to show glimpses of his old self in the fall with a top-10 at the Sanderson and later finished one back in his most recent start in Sea Island. Berger is 6-for-6 in made cuts at Waialae and was T7 the last time he teed-it-up here in 2021.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Harris English (5-1)

English seems to play some of his best golf in Hawaii having won in Maui a few years ago to go along with four top-10s over his last 10 trips to Honolulu. His elite short game and accurate driving are good course fits.

Chandler Phillips (7-1)

Phillips made the cut here last year in his first start as a Tour member, and he also closed the year in solid form with a pair of top-20s. His combination of accurate driving and strong putting should be a good course fit.

Matti Schmid (12-1)

These are some long odds for a player that had two top-5s over his last four starts of 2024. Schmid will look to use his strengths of driving play and putting (top-50 in each category last season) for success at Waialae.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Mackenzie Hughes (-115) over Andrew Novak

Hughes had an excellent finish to last year with top-10s in four of his final five starts, and I expect him to carry that momentum over to 2025 at a place where his driving weakness isn't as easily exposed. Novak has lost strokes putting on these Bermuda greens in all three of his appearances, leading to a pair of missed cuts. I like him to have another solid season, but I'll pass on him this week.

Matt Kuchar (-115) over Billy Horschel

Horschel did win the flagship BMW PGA Championship overseas this fall, but then he finished the year with two missed cuts and bested just three golfers at the DP World Tour Championship. I'm fading him to start the year and will happily take Kuchar in this matchup. The veteran won the event in 2019 and has a whopping seven top-10s across his last 11 trips to Honolulu.

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