This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas for the final time this year for this week's Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. The only non-signature event with invitational status, we have a 135-player field that is headlined by last week's PGA Champion in Scottie Scheffler at +240. Colonial is the longest standing event on Tour having hosted since 1946, although it's spot on the scheduling following a signature event and a major leaves us with a weaker field than the event deserves. Last year, longshot Davis Riley (250-1) won by five strokes over Scheffler and Keegan Bradley.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,289 yards
These are the average rankings of Colonial champions since 2020.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 17.0
- SG: Approach: 6.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 41.4
- SG: Putting: 5.2
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.2
- Driving Distance: 19.2
- Driving Accuracy: 25.0
One of the nice things about Colonial is that the classical design makes it suitable for all styles of play to contend here. It's gotten longer over the years but five of the par-4s play under 415 yards and there are only two par-5s, one of which plays as a three-shot hole for even the longest hitters. The course is most known for holes 3-5, known as the 'Horrible Horseshoe', a difficult three-hole stretch that has a long par-3 sandwiched in between a pair of 475-yard par-4s. The tree-lined fairways put more of a premium on accuracy over distance, especially considering that the fairways are already tough to hit at less than 30 yards wide on average. Iron play stands out as a key metric, and I'll be targeting those that approach it well from 125-175 yards. We've seen the winning score at single-digit under-par in two of the last three years, so this tends to be one of the tougher venues the Tour visits. Overall, I'm ideally targeting accurate drivers, good iron players and those that rank well in bogey avoidance.
Colonial Crushers
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Colonial over the last five years (minimum eight rounds).
- Davis Riley: 68.2
- Scottie Scheffler: 68.7
- Jordan Spieth: 68.7
- Daniel Berger: 68.9
- Patton Kizzire: 69.8
Riley serves as the defending champion, but he's not just a one-hit wonder here as he also finished just two shots back in his debut three years ago. He's done is with precise iron play, gaining a massive 1.75 strokes on approach across 10 career rounds. Although last year was a struggle after his win, Riley (50-1 odds) has turned it around this year and is coming off a T2 at Quail Hollow last week. Another past champion on this list is Spieth, although his win here is more of a distant memory as it came in 2016. Nevertheless, the hometown venue has yielded a lot of elite results for Spieth as he's posted eight top-10s across 12 appearances. He hasn't played his best the last two weeks, but he's also finished fourth and T12 in his last two non-signature events – both of which were in his home state.
Approach Artists
These five golfers have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.56
- Henrik Norlander: 1.13
- Daniel Berger: 1.03
- Brian Campbell: 0.91
- Si Woo Kim: 0.72
It's not easy to find a statistical list that Scheffler won't be atop of as the World No. 1 is back in his dominating 2024 form following an eight-stroke win at the Byron Nelson and a five-shot victory at last week's PGA Championship. Surprisingly, Scheffler has yet to win here across five trips but has gone second-T3-T2 the last three years. The only concern is a potential let down, but that's likely a non-issue. Meanwhile, the other player to be appear on both lists is Berger, who is tied with Spieth as the second choice on the board at 22-1 odds. The 2020 event champion is making a strong case for a Ryder Cup selection as he ranks fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green this year. Berger's iron play has also been in great form, with his four best approach weeks coming over his last four starts.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Outright Picks
Aaron Rai (30-1)
Rai is a great fit for Colonial as his lack of distance isn't much of a detriment, and he leads the Tour in driving accuracy this year. He finished T12 here two years ago and ranked second in approach. Rai ranked third at Quail Hollow in SG: Approach last week.
Si Woo Kim (40-1)
Kim's eight-year track record here is mediocre at best, but his best two results have come the last two years. More importantly, he's playing well right now with four consecutive top-20s that includes a major and two signature events. I'll gladly take these odds against a lesser field.
Bud Cauley (70-1)
Cauley is back to playing at a similar level to before he missed three years with injuries. He's shown a high ceiling as well, posting three results of T6 or better over his last six starts. Cauley is 11th in SG: Total and jumps out as one of the better values.
Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Harry Hall (5-1)
2025 has been somewhat of a struggle for Hall, but he's starting to round back into form with back-to-back top-20s including his first at a major championship. His short-game is one of the best on Tour, which is always needed at difficult tests. Hall finished T3 here in 2023.
Matt McCarty (7-1)
McCarty's best finish over his first seven starts this year was T48, but since then has reeled off four top-20s in six events and is trending back in the right direction. His game is built more on precision than power, so he should be a good course fit for Colonial in his debut at the event.
Charley Hoffman (10-1)
My longshot target of the week is Hoffman due to his track record at the event. He's posted four top-15s since 2012, most notably a T3 in 2021. The 48-year-old has a pair of top-10s this year, so he can still have spike weeks at this point of his career.
Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Ryan Gerard (-105) over Ben Griffin
Gerard continues to have a strong second year on Tour, posting three top-10s over his last six starts, two of which have come in Texas. He's also only missed two cuts, making him a reliable option in matchups. Griffin is certainly having a nice year himself but has been more inconsistent with three missed cuts over his last seven starts and hasn't shown much form at Colonial with results of T52-MC.
Tom Kim (-110) over Kurt Kitayama
It's obviously been a disappointing year for Kim, but the Dallas resident has this event circled on the calendar and Colonial is a course he knows well. He was T24 here last year. Kitayama is also a difficult player to target in matchups. He's missed more cuts than he's made across 13 starts with only one top-25. Kitayama's not a great course fit either as a long but erratic driver.
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