2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on March 6, 2024 3:51PM EST

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Betting Preview

Following a Monday finish at PGA National that saw Austin Eckroat pick up his first PGA Tour victory, the action heads to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

The fourth Signature Event of the year is headlined by Scottie Scheffler -- the tournament favorite at 13-2 odds -- and brings in a 69-player field that will have a 36-hole cut down to the top 50 plus ties as well as anyone within 10 shots of the lead.

Last year, long shot Kurt Kitayama -- at a whopping 220-1 -- picked up his first PGA Tour victory by one stroke over Rory McIlroy and Harris English.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Wednesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-72, 7,466 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners Since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 23.0
SG: Approach: 12.4
SG: Around-the-Green: 29.2
SG: Putting: 11.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 8.4
Driving Distance: 26.4
Driving Accuracy: 26.0

While there have been some tough venues the Tour has visited thus far, Bay Hill feels like the hardest test yet as the winner has failed to reach 10-under in back-to-back years. There are four par-5s that provide scoring opportunities, but the shortest par-3 is 199 yards and five par-4s over 455 yards. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow fairways and thick rough, with water in play on half the holes. Approach play tends to be key statistic here as there aren't many wedge shots and the firm greens require precision. There doesn't tend to be much of a premium on distance over accuracy off the tee, and I'll lean slightly towards the longer hitters. I'll also be targeting those that approach it well from 200+ yards and those that rank well in bogey avoidance.

Bay Hill Barons

The following players, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Bay Hill over the last five years.

The above scores indicate how difficult of a course Bay Hill is as there isn't a single player with a scoring average in the 60s. Spieth has only played here twice and has finished tied for fourth both times, including being just two back last year. He's played quality golf this year with a solo third at Kapalua and a top-10 in Phoenix, so there's plenty to like at 25-1 odds. Another player that's shown an affinity for the venue is Kirk, who has made five consecutive cuts here with four top-15 results. He comes in with a little momentum, too, closing with a 65 at PGA National last week, another Florida course that the veteran has a good track record at. Kirk enters the week with 55-1 odds to pick up his second win of the year.

Approach the Bench

These golfers have gained the most strokes on approach per round over their last 20 rounds:

Hoge tops the list and has had a resurgent 2024 on the heels of his excellent iron play. The 34-year-old has gained shots on approach in 11 straight tournaments, resulting in six top-20s. He's had moderate success here having made 3-of-5 cuts with a best finish of T15, and he comes in with long-shot odds of 80-1. Another player on this list that's also known for his approach play is Morikawa, albeit much farther up the odds board at 22-1 odds. Although he hasn't been in contention to win in the final round this year, he's managed a solid three top-20s across four starts. He led the field in SG: Approach here in 2020 en route to a top-10 result, so he's certainly not someone to overlook amongst the stacked field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard: Outright Picks

Viktor Hovland (16-1)

Hovland has put on a ball striking display here the last two years, ranking 12th or better in SG: Off the tee and approach both years en route to top-10 finishes. He's had a modest start to the year but also won three times last summer. I'll take the value at this price.

Xander Schauffele (18-1)

We're going on 32 straight events that Schauffele hasn't won since picking up back-to-back victories in the summer of 2022. The drought can't last much longer, can it? He's posted a top-10 in four of five starts this season, so he's constantly giving himself a chance to win.

Min Woo Lee (40-1)

Lee has quickly established himself as one of the better drivers on Tour, ranking 23rd in SG: Off the tee and 13th in driving distance this season which helped propel him to a T2 result last week. He won twice overseas last fall, so he certainly not adverse to the pressure when he's in contention.

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard: Other Wagers

J.T. Poston
Top-10 Finish: 13-2

At first glance, many bettors will likely shy away from Poston considering he has two missed cuts and a T66 result from 2019-2021 at the event. However, he's a significantly better player now than he was back then. Poston already has three top-10s this year.

Justin Rose
Top-10 Finish: 8-1

Rose has had a rough stretch at the event, failing to make the weekend four straight times, but that has been more than factored into these odds. He went through a stretch from 2011-2018 with six top-15s over six appearances at Bay Hill and finished T11 at Pebble Beach last month.

Sahith Theegala
Top-5 Finish: 12-1

These are some generous odds for someone that already has a pair of top-5 finishes this year and has emerged as a top-25 player in the world. After missing the cut in his debut here in 2022, he followed it up with a top-15.

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard: Head-to-Head Matchups

Matt Fitzpatrick (-110) over Sam Burns

Fitzpatrick has been a model of consistency at Bay Hill with five consecutive top-15 finishes and was also a respectable T21 last week. I know that Burns has been hot to start the year, but he's missed two of his last three cuts at the event and was dead last in SG: Approach here a year ago.

Adam Hadwin (-110) over Si Woo Kim

The course history angle does not bode well for Kim – across eight appearances at the event he's only made four cuts with a best finish of T26. Hadwin on the other hand has a sixth place finish at Bay Hill and is in better form, coming off a top-5 at a Signature Event in his most recent start.

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