Yahoo DFS Football: Week 10 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 10 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Jay Cutler (CHI, $30)

There are a handful of cash game-worthy options among the mid-range signal-callers, including rookie Carson Wentz at home against the Falcons, but Cutler gets top billing for GPPs with us fully acknowledging the inherent risk in clicking the button next to his name. Cutler has a history of stepping up to the plate a few times per season, and a date with the Bucs should be a good spot for him to excel. The Bucs rank 21st in defensive DVOA and have served up 18 passing TDs to opposing quarterbacks (fourth-most in the league). Their 8.3 YPA against is the second-worst mark in football, and their pass defense was ripped apart by Matt Ryan last Thursday for 344 yards and four touchdowns at a very efficient 10.1 YPA. The 1.5-point spread implies a close game between two teams with loose defenses. We may not use Cutler in tourneys again this season, but this week, it behooves us to take advantage of an exploitable matchup.

Lamar Miller (HOU, $25)

Miller has produced yards on the ground (80 per game) but has failed to provide late first round value in season-long leagues, mostly due to a low touchdown total (just three on the year). He currently sits outside the top 10 in PPR points among running backs (14th) but should slowly start to work his way up the ladder over the second half of the season. Week 9 was the first time this season the Jaguars didn't allow a rushing touchdown, but that's mostly due to Charcandrick West's ineptness and the fact that Spencer Ware did not suit up because of a concussion. Miller is certainly hampered by a mediocre offensive line and by his QB, Brock Osweiler, but he is the heart and soul of the Texans offense. This should be a grind-'em-out on the ground type of matchup, given the low projected point total (42.5) and the fact that both the Jags and Texans boast strong passing defenses. Miller is value priced and will be overlooked this week, with most attention at the position going to David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott and Darren Sproles.

Alshon Jeffery (CHI, $27)

If you're running Cutler out there this week, it only makes sense that you pair him with his boy, Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery is Cutler's first read in the offense, and they began rekindling their rapport last week as Jeffery caught four of eight targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. The pair spent much time off the field due to injury last season, but managed to play seven games together. In Weeks 7 and 8 of last season, Jeffery caught 20 of 31 targets from Cutler for 267 receiving yards and a touchdown. More supporting documentation on their connection: Cutler was an integral part of Jeffery's breakout season in 2014 when he caught 85 balls for 1,133 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Bucs rank 19th against No. 1 wide receivers, allowing nearly 78 yards per game to them. Last week, Julio Jones had an 'average for him' outing against the Bucs with his 111 yards. The previous week, Raiders stud Amari Cooper ripped the Bucs secondary for 173 yards on 12 catches. It's a good spot for the duo, and I'm feeling it. Let's roll with the Bears' combo and cash in some tourneys.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Carson Wentz (PHI, $31), Colin Kaepernick (SF, $24)
RB: Mark Ingram (NO, $20), Matt Asiata (MIN, $13), Paul Perkins (NYG, $12)
WR: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, $23), J.J. Nelson (ARI, $18), Brandon LaFell (CIN, $15), DeVante Parker (MIA, $15)
TE: Zach Ertz (PHI, $16)
DST: New York Jets ($16), New Orleans Saints ($10)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Philip Rivers (SD, $32)

With fitting Cardinals' back David Johnson into the lineup a big priority this week, finding the best value among the mid-range quarterbacks appears to be the way to go. The top-priced QBs all have tough "on paper" matchups this week – Aaron Rodgers at Tennessee, Tom Brady against a surging Seahawks squad, Matt Ryan in Philly and Drew Brees facing a pissed-off Broncos team that hopes to get CB Aqib Talib back. Rivers has a neutral matchup against an 11th-ranked (by DVOA) Dolphins defense, but will be leading the offense at home, in what is projected to be a close game (four-point spread) in one of the week's highest projected totals (49 points). Rivers is the ninth-ranked QB on the season, but has been fairly efficient, averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game and ranking fifth among all quarterbacks with 7.88 yards per attempt. The Dolphins will surely game plan to stop beasting back Melvin Gordon, though that may be easier said than done. Regardless, selling out to stop the run could provide more time for Rivers in the pocket to get the ball out to his receivers. He may not have tremendous upside in this matchup, but is a solid cash game play in a week with many questionable QB options. Plus, you never know. The wily veteran might hit on his third four TD game of the season.

Running Backs

David Johnson (ARI, $41)

It doesn't get any better than this. Sure, his price tag accounts for slightly over 20 percent of your salary cap this week, but a matchup for the league's best running back (apologies to Zeke Elliott) against the world's worst run defense is truly a matchup made in heaven. Speaking of Elliott, he took full advantage of a porous Browns' run D last week (97 total yards, two TDs) in a similar spot, and the beating could have been much worse if the Cowboys didn't have a huge lead and actually needed Elliott in the fourth quarter. The Niners were ravaged by the Saints' RB duo of Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower to the tune of 248 yards on 42 carries, and are allowing a league-worst 193 rushing yards per game. Just for context, the Browns are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game this season – 47 less yards than the Niners! We can get creative in GPPs by building teams without Johnson in hopes an early blowout limits his snaps and touches, but the mismatch clearly portends DJ not needing all four quarters to put up valuable numbers. There are enough values at QB and WR this week for us to fit him in without much consternation. Plug him in first and build from there.

Devontae Booker (DEN, $24)

Booker is reasonably priced this week and should be a viable cash game option despite word from Denver that up-and-coming change-of-pace back Kapri Bibbs will see more snaps and possibly split carries evenly. Booker never had a chance to get going last week, as the Raiders consistently pinned the Broncos' offense deep in their own zone and were able to get off to a nice lead. The rookie managed just 22 rushing yards on 10 carries and is averaging an ineffective 2.62 yards per carry since taking over for the injured C.J. Anderson. Booker looked somewhat tentative on a few of his carries against Oakland, while Bibbs managed 111 yards from scrimmage on eight carries and two receptions, though 69 of those yards came on a single play. Either way, Bibbs is getting enough attention early in the week to take some of the luster off Booker this week. It could provide us with a great opportunity to roster him at lower ownership in cash games against one of the league's most generous rush defenses. Only the Chargers have allowed more rushing TDs this year than the 12 the Saints have surrendered. The 108.5 yards per game the Saints are allowing puts them middle of the back, but DuJuan Harris did some damage against them last week – 59 rushing yards on 10 carries along with 83 receiving yards on five receptions. The Broncos-Saints tilt is expected to be a close one (one-point spread) and it's one of the highest projected matchups of Week 10 (49 points). So long as Brees and company don't get out to a substantial early lead, Booker should be heavily involved both as the primary back and in the passing game. He's a talented back with a bright future and we shouldn't let his most recent performance and the Bibbs noise affect our consideration for him in cash games this week.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham (NYG, $32)

Beckham currently ranks eighth among wide receivers in fantasy points this season and has been earning his salary of late, getting into the end zone five times over his last four games. On the flip side, he has only managed to catch more than five balls once in his last five games and has crossed the 100-yard receiving mark just twice in eight games. He and A.J. Green will be the high-priced Monday Night hammer options for Week 10, but Beckham will be the more popular choice since he will cost you $5 less. It will be much needed savings in a week when we're looking to fit David Johnson into our lineups. The Bengals secondary has been average this season. They've allowed 16 passing touchdowns (23rd), 262 passing yards per game (21st), and a 7.8 YPA (24th) to opposing quarterbacks this year. Look for Beckham to see double-digit targets again and shine on the MNF stage with at least 20 fantasy points. It will be the last time you see Beckham priced below $35 this season.

Dez Bryant (DAL, $19)

Sometimes we are given gifts in the form of market inefficiencies that we need to take advantage of. Despite his Week 9 dud, there is no reason for one of the league's most dynamic receivers to be priced below $20, yet that's what the pricing algorithm provides us with this week. We'd be hard-pressed to not jump on the opportunity. Bryant is certainly boom or bust, but a 50-point projected total in a potential shootout with the Steelers is a prime opportunity for Bryant to bounce back. He managed just one reception (on four targets) for 19 yards last week, but he would have paid off for us if he was able to hang onto an end zone pass from Dak Prescott. In his return from injury in Week 8, Bryant was targeted 14 times, catching four balls for 114 yards and a touchdown. Expect Prescott and Bryant to establish a rhythm this week, especially with Dez squaring off against rookie cornerback Artie Burns on over half of his snaps. The bottom line is, Bryant is about half the price of Mike Evans this week. Evans is clearly a beast, but let that sink in for a moment. Then put Bryant into your lineup.

Dontrelle Inman (SD, $11)

Inman is an easy plug and play this week at a mere $11 – as close to minimum salary as we can get. With Travis Benjamin slowed by a knee injury over the last two weeks, Inman has stepped up in his place, catching 10 balls for 128 yards these last two games. Only 17 wideouts have seen more targets than Inman's 16 over that stretch. Benjamin could be in danger of missing the Week 10 tilt with the Dolphins entirely, which would only enhance the desirability of locking Inman in as cap relief to get some expensive options in at RB1 and WR1. I'd rather pair teammate Tyrell Williams with Rivers this week for GPPs, but in cash games, Inman is a safe option to exceed value at his affordable tag.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (SEA, $20)

It's great to see Graham at full strength. He will be a frontrunner for the Comeback Player of the Year award as long as he is able to stay on the field over the next eight weeks. He dominated the Bills on Monday Night Football, catching all eight of the passes thrown his way for 103 yards and two highlight-reel, one-handed touchdowns. Graham was among the tight end leaders in targets, receptions and receiving yards heading into the game, yet had hit paydirt just once prior to his MNF performance. Since Yahoo pricing was set before Monday night, his salary looks like a steal for Week 10, especially when comparing him to Rob Gronkowski's $29 tag. Seahawks' wideout Doug Baldwin has not received a red zone look over the last four games, and Graham leads all Seahawks' pass catchers in that department. He is the team's primary weapon down the field and in the red zone, a weekly cash game play and the best option at TE as the Seahawks and Patriots square off in the Sunday night prime time game.

Defense/Special Teams

San Diego Chargers ($16)

The Chargers defense has been gellin' like Magellan since rookie Joey Bosa's debut, averaging 9.6 fantasy points in his five games, compared to 6.75 in their first four games without him. They've intercepted three passes for pick-sixes over their last two outing and line up for another solid matchup against Dolphins' mistake-prone quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. The Cardinals are a slightly better option, at home against the Niners as 13.5 favorites, but the extra $4 in savings can come in handy. Of course, the Johnson/ARI DST is the ideal correlation combo on paper this week.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Dak Prescott (DAL, $33), Carson Palmer (ARI, $30)
RB: Melvin Gordon (SD, $34), Darren Sproles (PHI, $18), Kapri Bibbs (DEN $10)
WR: A.J. Green (CIN, $37), Jordan Matthews (PHI, $26), Tyrell Williams (SD, $18)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (NE, $29)
DEF: Arizona Cardinals ($20)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
Week 12 Friday Injury Report: Purdy Out, Lamb In, Nabers Questionable
Week 12 Friday Injury Report: Purdy Out, Lamb In, Nabers Questionable
FanDuel NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
FanDuel NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
DraftKings NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
DraftKings NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 12 Matchups
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 12 Matchups
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12
NFL Week 12 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game
NFL Week 12 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game