Draftster NFL: Week 11 Value Plays

Draftster NFL: Week 11 Value Plays

This article is part of our Draftster NFL series.

We move on to Week 11 in the NFL season and Draftster continues into Week 6 of its Single-Entry Championship. The Championship already has 15 qualifiers for the final in December and is running buy-ins this week at 5, 10, and 20 dollars. Also moving into its third week is the Terrell Owens Challenge. This week, it is a $25 buy-in with a $500 top prize. Please note the following rankings do not include Thursday's matchup between Miami and Buffalo

Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. PHI - $8,800
2. Andrew Luck (IND) vs. NE - $9,000
3. Peyton Manning (DEN) at STL - $8,900
4. Drew Brees (NO) vs. CIN - $8,800
5. Tom Brady (NE) at IND - $8,900
6. Philip Rivers (SD) vs. OAK - $7,200
7. Colin Kaepernick (SF) at NYG - $7,200
8. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at TEN - $8,500
9. Mark Sanchez (PHI) at GB - $6,600
10. Matt Ryan (ATL) at CAR - $7,100
11. Robert Griffin (WAS) vs. TB - $6,900
12. Matthew Stafford (DET) at ARI - $8,100

Notable Byes: Tony Romo (DAL)

Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. PHI - $8,800
Rodgers matched an NFL record with six first-half touchdowns Sunday night against the Bears. He finished with 315 yards and those six touchdowns in what ended up being an absolute blowout by Green Bay. So, after all of that, you may be surprised Rodgers isn't the most expensive quarterback available. Though he still comes in at a high price, Rodgers is the third-most expensive this week on Draftster. He has a date with Chip Kelly and the Eagles at Lambeau Field on Sunday in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.

Philip Rivers (SD) vs. OAK - $7,200
Coming off of one of the worst performances of his career two weeks ago, Rivers will get an opportunity to bounce back against one of the league's worst defenses in Oakland. In Week 9 against the Dolphins, Rivers managed only 12 completions for 138 yards and was picked off three times. There is no reason to think that this is a sign of any regression in Rivers' game, and, if anything, his poor Week 9 performance resulted in a nice price drop for this week's action. Back in Week 6 against Oakland, Rivers threw for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Mark Sanchez (PHI) at GB - $6,600
In a total of about six quarters as the Eagles' quarterback, Mark Sanchez has thrown for over 500 yards and four touchdowns. We knew whoever stepped into the Chip Kelly system would have a shot at success, but Sanchez is looking completely revived since his disappointing days in New York. It doesn't appear Kelly is going to adjust his offense in the absence of Foles, so Sanchez should be primed for plenty of work this weekend against Green Bay. So far, Sunday's game holds the second highest Vegas total of the week at 54.

Running Back
1. Matt Forte (CHI) vs. MIN - $8,700
2. Arian Foster (HOU) at CLE - $9,000
3. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) at KC - $6,700
4. Jamaal Charles (KC) vs. SEA - $7,800
5. Eddie Lacy (GB) vs. PHI- $7,000
6. Le'Veon Bell (PIT) at TEN - $8,100
7. Alfred Morris (WAS) vs. TB - $5,800
8. Mark Ingram (NO) vs. CIN - $6,300
9. Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) vs. NE - $6,500
10. LeSean McCoy (PHI) at GB - $6,200
11. Andre Ellington (ARI) vs. DET - $6,100
12. Shane Vereen (NE) at IND - $6,200

Notable Byes: DeMarco Murray (DAL), Denard Robinson (JAX), Justin Forsett (BAL)

Eddie Lacy (GB) vs. PHI- $7,000
I have been trying to refrain from writing up a Packers player weekly, but I just can't help myself when their games offer some of the richest fantasy opportunity of the week. Over the past three weeks, Lacy has more than 320 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. He is getting work in the running and screen game and is playing a larger weekly role. After a six-touchdown outburst from Aaron Rodgers, the Eagles may pay a little extra attention to the passing game, leaving Lacy as the prime contributor through the ground and the air.

Mark Ingram (NO) vs. CIN - $6,300
A pleasant surprise over the past few weeks has been the emergence of Ingram and the presence of a solidified rushing game in New Orleans. The Saints always seemed to carry a three - if not four - headed ground attack with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and even Travis Cadet getting carries. However, since coming back from Injury, Ingram has been the featured back, totaling 392 yards on the ground and three touchdowns in three games. An even more eye-opening stat is that he is averaging 27 carries per game over that span. He gets a top matchup against Cincinnati, which is allowing 143 yards per game and giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Alfred Morris (WAS) vs. TB - $5,800
After a slow start to the season, Morris is finally starting to produce to his potential. In his last two games, he's tallied three touchdowns and just a shade under 200 all-purpose yards. With Robert Griffin back at the helm, the offense looks to be a bit more well-rounded than when Kirk Cousins was in control. The Redskins face a one-win Tampa Bay team this week at home.

Wide Receivers
1. Antonio Brown (PIT) at TEN - $8,900
2. Demaryius Thomas (DEN) at STL - $9,000
3. Jordy Nelson (GB) vs.PHI - $8,400
4. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) at GB - $7,300
5. Randall Cobb (GB) vs. PHI - $7,200
6. Calvin Johnson (DET) at ARI - $9,000
7. Julio Jones (ATL) at CAR - $8,100
8. Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) at STL - $8,100
9. T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. NE - $7,600
10. Alshon Jeffery (CHI) vs. MIN - $7,000
11. DeSean Jackson (WAS) vs. TB - $6,900
12. Julian Edelman (NE) at IND - $5,600

Notable Byes: Dez Bryant (DAL), Percy Harvin (NYJ)

Jordy Nelson (GB) vs.PHI - $8,400
In the Packers' last three home games, Nelson has more than 300 yards and four touchdowns, and all of that on just 11 receptions. Those numbers may seem low, but when you factor in the Packers' margin of victory in those games – 141-35 – it starts to paint a little bit clearer of a picture. Nelson and Rodgers have both been held out of the fourth quarter in all three games, leaving their numbers 'successfully low'. The Packers welcome the Eagles to Lambeau this Sunday for what should be a high-scoring, hotly contested affair. I don't envision Rodgers or Nelson being pulled in this one.

Calvin Johnson (DET) at ARI - $9,000
I mentioned last week that Johnson would come at a bit of a risk, but it was going to be a risk worth taking if he was going to play without restriction. If you did play him, he did not let you down. Johnson caught seven passes for 113 yards on the day with one touchdown. Draftster isn't handing out any free pass this week, as Megatron is already at maximum price. But, like I stated last week, he should be the lowest percent owned in larger pool games. Johnson will face Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals Sunday.

Julian Edelman (NE) at IND - $5,600
After back-to-back weeks of failing to top 50 yards, Edelman bounced back in Week 9 against Denver in a big way. Edelman finished the week with nine receptions for 89 yards and a score, which was just his second of the season. What makes Edelman such an attractive name this week is the 57.5 Vegas total set on the Patriots/Colts gam. Edelman comes in as one of the cheaper wideouts on Draftster, and he's the perfect buy-low candidate for your team this week.

Tight End
1a. Jimmy Graham (NO) vs. CIN - $8,200
1b. Rob Gronkowski (NE) at IND - $8,200
3. Julius Thomas (DEN) at STL - $5,700
4. Greg Olsen (CAR) at ATL - $5,200
5. Dwayne Allen (IND) vs. NE - $5,000
6. Antonio Gates (SD) vs. OAK - $5,700
7. Mychal Rivera (OAK) at SD - $4,600
8. Travis Kelce (KC) vs. SEA - $4,600
9. Jordan Reed (WAS) vs. TB - $4,000
10. Larry Donnell (NYG) vs. SF - $4,700

Notable Byes: Jason Witten (DAL), Owen Daniels (BAL)

Jimmy Graham (NO) vs. CIN - $8,200 / Rob Gronkowski (NE) at IND - $8,200
With both elite tight ends sitting at the same price, I cannot accurately recommend one over the other. Both have 10-reception, 100-yard, two-touchdown upside weekly, and this week both have excellent matchups. Graham takes on the Bengals, who rank 20th against the pass and 30th in overall defense. Gronkowski faces the Colts, who rank 27th against the pass. You can't go wrong with either selection, and if you can work one into your flex spot, both are worth rostering.

Julius Thomas (DEN) at STL - $5,700
Sitting at $2,500 less than both Graham and Gronkowski is another player with nearly equal upside. Thomas has 12 touchdowns on the season and is coming off of a six-reception, 63-yard, two-touchdown performance. If you aren't looking to spend high on the tight end position, Thomas is the perfect intermediate play this week against the Rams.

Mychal Rivera (OAK) at SD - $4,600
I wrote up Rivera as a value tight end play last week and he did not disappoint. In his last three games, he's averaging seven receptions, 55 yards, and a touchdown. Rivera's production did come late in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but it's hard to ignore his developing bond with quarterback Derek Carr. This week, he faces off against the Chargers and a tougher pass defense. With San Diego favored by 10 points, and Carr throwing 45 times per game, the targets should be there for Rivera.

Kicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski (NE) at IND - $4,500
2. Phil Dawson (SF) at NYG - $3,800
3. Adam Vinatieri (IND) vs. NE - $4,100
4. Mason Crosby (GB) vs. PHI - $4,200

The kicker selection will change week-to-week based upon highest over/under of a specific game. In most cases, you will want to select the lowest-priced kicker with the highest over/under. With Vegas lines being high across the board, and Draftster tightening up kicker prices, the best options remain the most consistent kickers in the NFL. Gostkowski and Vinatieri will clash Sunday night in a matchup that has a Vegas total of 57.5.

Defense
1. Detroit (at ARI) - $3,900
2. Denver (at STL) - $4,000
3. Arizona (vs. DET) - $3,800
4. San Diego (vs. OAK) - $3,900

On the opposite spectrum of kickers, defenses are selected based upon the lowest over/under totals in a given week, combined with the best matchup. This week, several games come in with totals under 44 points. Based upon current trends and production, Detroit and Arizona both offer great value in what should be a defensive battle.

Salary Saver Plays
QB: Mark Sanchez ($6,600), Derek Carr ($5,300)
RB: Giovani Bernard ($3,200 - Check Status), Rashad Jennings ($4,400 - Check Status)
WR: Jordan Matthews ($4,400), Michael Floyd ($3,200)
TE: Kyle Rudolph ($3,000 - Check Status)

Last week's lineup
QB: Mark Sanchez (24.18)
RB: DeMarco Murray (22.10)
RB: Eddie Lacy (20.80)
WR: Julio Jones (22.90)
WR: Alshon Jeffery (13.10)
TE: Owen Daniels (4.00)
FLEX: Fred Jackson (8.90)
K: Matt Bryant (15.00)
D: Steelers (5.00)
TOTAL: 135.98

I have come to find out that, unlike other daily fantasy sites, I tend to take the most risk on Draftster. There is something about a minimum-priced risk play that I can just not get off of. This week,it was Fred Jackson. After Buffalo had a disappointing showing between Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown the week before, the news that Jackson was active and would play was music to my ears. Unfortunately, I jumped the gun on this a bit, as he still took a backseat to Bryce Brown. The brightside of this is even a monster game from Jackson wouldn't have done much for me to have a huge week.

At quarterback, I went cheap with Mark Sanchez. After throwing for two touchdowns against Houston, it looked like Sanchez still had some in the tank and would be a nice fit into the Chip Kelly offense. Sanchez did not disappoint, throwing for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

As I seem to do weekly, saving at quarterback let me pay up for an elite running back. I went back to the well this week with DeMarco Murray. After a very strong start, Murray fell victim to an injury and didn't play at all in the fourth quarter. He still finished with over 20 fantasy points, but you want a little bit more out of a maximum-price play. With my second running back spot, I went with Eddie Lacy. As the week progressed, I fell more in love with Lacy, as his usage rates are going up fervently. Lacy had a relatively quiet night on the ground but managed a 58-yard touchdown on a nicely set up screen pass.

Where I came up a little short was with my receiving corps. Julio Jones was the stud I focused on, as he had a dream matchup coming off of a bye against a team he already did damage against this year. Jones finished with over 20 points but didn't reach the endzone. My second receiver, Alshon Jeffery, had a letdown of a game, as the Bears did absolutely nothing against the Packers.

I went with Owen Daniels at tight end because he was my favorite play in the tier of players available at his price point. I originally targeted Mychal Rivera but ended up cooling off of him before kickoff. Needless to say, that's decision I wish I wouldn't have made.

All in all, 138 points isn't a great score, but with Draftster paying out a large number of spots, I once again managed to make my money back.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. James Smizek plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: itzjamesftw, DraftKings: itzjamesftw.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Smizek
Since his introduction to Daily Fantasy Sports in 2010, James has turned a hobby into a profitable venture. A former writer of the now defunct DraftStreet.com and his own site BucketFullofPoints.com, James brings his knowledge and passion to RotoWire. He can be contacted on Twitter @iKezims.
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