Game Spotlight: Week 1 DFS

Trying something new this year.

Instead of a comprehensive weekly preview, the DFS Game Spotlight will look at a few specific games on the Sunday slates, taking an extensive inventory of those matchups and the players within them. The game selections will generally entail two of the highest projected totals, and then one that might be novel for other reasons.

In descending order of opening over/under...

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00

OPEN: 51.5 O/U, NO -7
LIVE: 49.5 O/U, NO -9.5

The Saints own the highest opening projected point total on the slate, leaving them with 29.25 projected points compared to Tampa's 22.25. The line has since shifted to New Orleans' emphatic benefit, and the live line strikes me as the more reasonable one. But I also predict doom for Tampa more often than anyone, so I may be biased.

I think we can all agree, whatever the eventual specifics, the Saints will almost certainly win this game, and probably with some level of comfort. That would be the case regardless of Tampa's quarterback situation, but the absence of Jameis Winston throws Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting lineup, which is good news for the Saints and probably bad for everyone on the Tampa Bay side. Fitzpatrick's best game last year was against Arizona in Week 6, when he played off the bench to complete 22-of-32 passes for 290 yards (9.1 YPA), three touchdowns, and two interceptions. In his three starts combined against the Jets (home), Dolphins (away), and Falcons (away), Fitzpatrick completed 66-of-115 for 745 yards (57.4 percent completed, 6.5 YPA), three touchdowns, and one interception.

Mike Evans (6700 DK, 7700 FD) was suspended for one of those starts (NYJ), but at least Fitzpatrick threw his way 22 times in the two games they both started, good for 27.2 percent share of the targets. Although Evans secured only 11 of those targets for 170 yards (50 percent catch rate, 7.7 YPT), that's still encouraging usage. For this week, though, his target prominence could be close to moot if he gets the shadow treatment from Marshon Lattimore, whose stellar play last year more or less provoked Evans into the tantrum that got him suspended.

The expected emergence of Chris Godwin poses an additional complication for Evans, however. It's easy enough to rationalize Evans as a tournament play regardless of the coverage if you know he's getting 11 targets, but that previously mentioned target share of 27.2 occurred while Dirk Koetter marginalized Godwin in the offense to instead promote Adam Humphries. I think you can assume Evans' target share with Godwin on the field will be less than what it was when Humphries was out there.

With Evans presumably drawing Lattimore and the near certainty that the Buccaneers will play catch-up most of the game, Godwin (4100 DK, 5500 FD) and DeSean Jackson (4600 DK, 5900 FD) seem like the Tampa Bay pass catchers to target. Jackson figures to see more of his snaps from the slot than Godwin, which might make it a little easier for Jackson to create throwing lanes since the outside receiver figures to see a lot of help coverage from emerging star safety Marcus Williams (don't let the Diggs play fool you – Williams is very good). Either way, I think both Jackson and Godwin can get open – Jackson will age well given his athleticism, and Godwin will be one of the most feared receivers in the league within a year or two.

Peyton Barber (4100 DK, 5600 FD) will tempt some at least as a GPP target, because the Saints were underwhelming against the run last year and because Barber was named Tampa Bay's starting runner. I'm concerned the distinction might not carry much significance given the team's likely inability to compete, not to mention Dirk Koetter's enduring affection for Jacquizz Rodgers. A coach who behaves this irrationally can't be trusted to follow through on his own guarantees, so I'm presuming nothing. It doesn't help that left tackle Donovan Smith will likely play through a knee injury.

For the Saints side of things, what is there even to say? They're at home, where Drew Brees is automatic, and the Tampa Bay pass defense was among the worst last year. Michael Thomas is cash game gold as usual, and if you want to bet on Tampa Bay covering the spread then Thomas' GPP appeal would escalate by that logic. I don't think the Buccaneers make this especially close, though, so I'm not drawn toward Thomas in tournaments especially. If I approached a non-Thomas route runner for the Saints it would probably be a tournament selection for Ben Watson (3100 DK, 4900 FD).

Alvin Kamara repeatedly showed the ability to put up week-clinching numbers last year even on short workloads, so I think he's easily justified in cash and tournaments both with Mark Ingram suspended. Less obviously, I think Mike Gillislee makes a lot of sense as a tournament consideration (3700 DK, 4600 FD). I can't imagine Kamara getting overworked during the Ingram suspension generally, and especially not against the stupid Buccaneers.

New England vs. Houston, 1:00

OPEN: 51 O/U, NE -6.5
LIVE: 51 O/U, NE -6.5

This game owned the highest live over/under as of press time, and that's quickly explained by the two starting quarterbacks. Tom Brady is normally pretty close to automatic at home, the Houston pass defense was bad last year, and this exact same matchup resulted in a 36-33 victory for the Patriots in Week 3 of last year – Deshaun Watson's second NFL start following a brutal initial start against the Bengals the week prior. He completed 22-of-33 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, adding 41 yards on the ground. Brady completed 25-of-35 passes for 378 yards and five touchdowns.

I feel like this game will be lower-scoring than the last. That would be the general probability just for the fact that last year's game was very high-scoring by NFL standards, and the mean is somewhere lower. But there's additional reason to expect a lower point total this time in the fact that both defenses are likely better than they were last year. The Patriots allowed 7.3 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per carry in 2017, but in the two prior years they were better in each respective category, allowing 6.8 YPA/3.9 YPC in 2016 and 7.1 YPA/4.0 YPC in 2015. Whereas the Texans allowed 27.25 points per game and 8.0 yards per pass last year, they allowed 6.6 YPA over the two years prior while allowing 20.05 points per game. The return of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus should be a big deal for Houston.

You would expect DeAndre Hopkins (8300 DK, 8800 FD) to see big target volume in this one. He only caught seven passes for 76 yards in last year's meeting, but Hopkins will generally go as Watson does. Will Fuller (5100 DK, 6400 FD) is a tough sell as he plays through a hamstring tweak, but the talent is real with him and the Patriots didn't get a look at him last year while he sat with a broken collarbone. If the Pats secondary fixates on Hopkins, Fuller can kill them deep. I don't see how he can be argued against as a tournament play. Tight end Ryan Griffin is another fine target in this one, and he's so cheap (2800 DK, 4700 FD) that I think you can even rationalize him in cash games. Griffin caught five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown in last year's matchup.

Just as he was in season-long formats, Lamar Miller (5200 DK, 6500 FD) will be a fade for me. The Patriots run defense will likely shave 0.7-0.8 yards per carry allowed from last year's figure, and the Houston offensive line has trended downward since then. I'm not even sure the game script matters much to me – it might actually be easier for Miller to produce if Houston is losing, converting some of his carries into receptions, perhaps, because it's difficult to see him getting loose on the ground after averaging 3.7 YPC last year. He finished the last game with 56 yards on 14 carries and a seven-yard reception.

I don't expect the Patriots to run for much in this matchup, either – the Texans allowed only 4.0 YPC last year and figure to only maintain or improve on that product, and you would think the Patriots would need to lean on Rex Burkhead (4200 DK, 6300 FD) and James White (4000 DK, 5500) more in the passing game to offset Julian Edelman's suspension. Both Burkhead and White look like strong plays to me on DK, regardless of cash or tournament. Jeremy Hill (3300 DK, 4600 FD) might be the goal-line guy, but I don't have the guts to approach that.

The Patriots pass catchers are rather appealing across the board. I'll probably try to make room for Gronk (6900 DK, 7900 FD) in just about all my lineups. It's a high-stakes home game where the Patriots have compromised running back and wide receiver personnel. Don't let me down, Gronk. Chris Hogan (6100 DK, 6700 FD) will understandably be popular in cash and tournament lineups both. He caught four passes for 68 yards and two touchdowns in last year's game, and that was with Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola around. I think Phillip Dorsett (3700 DK, 5900 FD) is a great tournament play on DK as the likely heir to the Cooks role. I have no idea what to expect of Cordarrelle Patterson and won't pick him (3500 DK, 4600 FD), but at least we know he can run in the open field.

Denver vs. Seattle, 4:25

OPEN: 42 O/U, DEN -1.5
LIVE: 42.5 O/U, DEN -3

I love the Denver side of this one. The prices imply an enduring respect for the reputation of the Seattle defense, for which there's not much reason at this point, and Denver has a crushing homefield advantage in September. As Optimum Scouting's Justis Mosqueda observed, Denver is a death trap for visitors in the early season. NFL teams don't have their conditioning up generally, so heading to the elevated atmosphere brings out the cramps and fatigue in a way they can't prepare for. The Broncos, having trained in it all along, are not subject to the same penalty.

Royce Freeman (4500 DK, 6000 FD) is one of my favorite running backs this week. In games where Denver leads or trails slightly, Freeman should get big workload volume, so if Seattle stumbles through the ascent then Freeman could reap huge benefits. The Seahawks lost Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett from last year's front four, and linebacker K.J. Wright will sit this one out, too.

Demaryius Thomas (5700 DK, 7000 FD) gets perhaps the toughest draw among Denver receivers if he sees a lot of Shaquill Griffin, but I don't think it's specifically any cause for concern. Thomas seems like at least an adequate tournament play to me. Emmanuel Sanders (5000 DK, 6300 FD) is the preferred target for me, though. With the arrival of Courtland Sutton, Sanders should almost always move to the slot in three-wide situations, and I prefer to target short, quick receivers against the Seahawks rather than big wideouts the corners can grab on to. I like Case Keenum (5100 DK, 6300 FD) as a tournament play, similarly.

Everyone on Seattle is a fade for me. Russell Wilson might be a bit tempting on DK (6200), but less so on FD (7900). Wilson does enough with his legs that you can rationalize him as a tournament play even if you expect the Seattle offense as a whole to struggle, but even in the DK instance I would rather go with Pat Mahomes for 6000 as a tournament target.

I don't want to pick Doug Baldwin at 85 percent (6200 DK, 7500 FD) while he presumably faces a lot of Chris Harris coverage. Tyler Lockett (4300 DK, 5600 FD) would be the Seattle receiver I'd target, though I doubt I'll have him in any lineups. I suppose Brandon Marshall is cheap enough on DK (3700) that he could be rationalized as a tournament play. If you buy the idea that Denver takes this one, then I think Chris Carson (4500 DK, 5900 FD) is also a trap, though I'm admittedly much more critical of him than most observers these days.