This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
With many fantasy football players drafting non-quarterbacks early, finding running backs outside of the top three rounds is critical. Here are five running backs to consider who are commonly drafted outside the top 12 at their position.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
The fantasy community seems to value Jones as an injury-prone player who will see limited work. In terms of injuries, yes, Jones did miss six games last year. However, the running back missed just four games over the prior four seasons. When looking at the committee work the former UTEP star had in Green Bay, it always seemed to be an organizational philosophy. Just watch Jones play football. It is very difficult to argue he is not one of the most talented running backs in the league. In his last five games, the halfback took on a lead role and posted at least 118 scrimmage yards in each game. Jones was also well above average in broken tackle and yards after contact rates. He is now 29 and in Minnesota after signing a one-year deal with the Vikings. Their only notable backup is Ty Chandler. Look for the Vikings to give their new running back all the work he can handle. A top-six running back finish is on the table.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
There is nothing wrong with saying a player is a compiler. I always say volume is king in fantasy football. Mixon has averaged 303 touches over the last three seasons. Now with
With many fantasy football players drafting non-quarterbacks early, finding running backs outside of the top three rounds is critical. Here are five running backs to consider who are commonly drafted outside the top 12 at their position.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
The fantasy community seems to value Jones as an injury-prone player who will see limited work. In terms of injuries, yes, Jones did miss six games last year. However, the running back missed just four games over the prior four seasons. When looking at the committee work the former UTEP star had in Green Bay, it always seemed to be an organizational philosophy. Just watch Jones play football. It is very difficult to argue he is not one of the most talented running backs in the league. In his last five games, the halfback took on a lead role and posted at least 118 scrimmage yards in each game. Jones was also well above average in broken tackle and yards after contact rates. He is now 29 and in Minnesota after signing a one-year deal with the Vikings. Their only notable backup is Ty Chandler. Look for the Vikings to give their new running back all the work he can handle. A top-six running back finish is on the table.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
There is nothing wrong with saying a player is a compiler. I always say volume is king in fantasy football. Mixon has averaged 303 touches over the last three seasons. Now with the Texans, his only notable competition for work is Dameon Pierce. Based on that, projecting another 300+ touches for Mixon seems fair. Although Mixon has been ordinary in broken tackle and yards-after-contact rates for years, he is very good at getting yards that are blocked and keeping the offense on schedule. The veteran back has averaged 51 catches since 2021 and moves into an offense where Devin Singletary and Pierce caught 43 passes. Another 50-catch season seems likely. Finally, Mixon has always been a reliable goal-line option, averaging 12 touchdowns over the last three years. Expect the former Oklahoma Sooner to be a 300-touch player with receiving and red-zone work. A top-10 running back finish would be no surprise.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
Let's get this out of the way – Conner will likely miss three or four games. In every season of his career, Conner has missed between two and six games. His ADP always bakes in the missed time. Despite playing much of the 2023 season with backup quarterbacks, Conner had a career year in some areas. The halfback's 5.0 yards per carry was a half-yard higher than his previous high. The star posted 94th-percentile broken tackle and 97th-percentile yards-after-contact rates. Those led to the former Steeler having his first 1,000-rushing yard campaign. Still, Conner played his best football when Kyler Murray returned to action. The running back averaged 23.9 PPR points in Weeks 13-18. Conner also had his only two strong receiving performances of the year with Murray. Don't worry about Trey Benson, as Conner was already giving up touches to backups. The veteran is the heart and soul of the offense and will have one more excellent year as his contract expires in Arizona.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
Through Pittsburgh's Week 6 bye last year, Harris averaged 6.7 PPR points. He looked like a fantasy bust. However, in the last 12 games, the Steelers focused more on their rushing attack. That led to the former Alabama star averaging 13.7 PPR points the rest of the way. Despite what many considered a disappointing season, Harris had excellent 85th-percentile broken tackle and 88th-percentile yards-after-contact rates. The Steelers brought in Arthur Smith to run the offense and drafted three offensive linemen in the first four rounds of the draft. They appear to be 'all in' on their run game. Yes, this will be a committee backfield with Harris and Jaylen Warren. But with Harris the preferred inside runner, it makes sense Smith will use him as the lead back. Between likely volume and the team's commitment to the run, Harris should finish inside the top 20 of fantasy running backs.
Kendre Miller, RB, Saints
To understand Miller's fantasy value we have to talk about Alvin Kamara. Kamara was a beast for fantasy in 2023, based largely on rushing volume and his 75 receptions. However, the Saints' coaching staff saw a player who had a 15th-percentile broken tackle, 27th-percentile yards-after-contact and 24th-percentile yards-after-the-catch rates. Kamara was in steep decline and will enter his age-29 season. Miller missed nine games due to injury, so he never had a chance to get into the mix. After selecting Miller in the third round of last year's draft, he impressed in the two games in which he had double-digit touches. In those contests, he recorded 30 touches, 169 yards and a touchdown while posting excellent broken tackle and yards-after-contact rates. With the expectation that Kamara continues to decline, Miller could see 40 percent of the work to start the season. That could increase as the year goes on.
