Tuesday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cowboys vs. Ravens

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Published on December 8, 2020

Tuesday Night Football is back with the Ravens 7.5-point home favorites against the Cowboys in a game with a 45.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. While the other games have absolutely nothing to do with this one, there will certainly be people who put stock in the fact that the NFC East played shockingly well this week, as the Giants beat the Seahawks in Seattle and Football Team won in Pittsburgh, ending the Steelers' undefeated run.

The expectations for the Ravens will likely have most fantasy players tilting their lineups toward Baltimore because even though the Cowboys have good skill position players, the Ravens' defense remains very good and likely to control the game.

QUARTERBACKS

Lamar Jackson ($11,600 DK, $16,500 FD) is the most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel, which isn't surprising as the best offensive weapon for the favored team. However, he's been anything but elite this season after winning MVP last year, and he's playing in his first game after testing positive for COVID-19. After passing for 275 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 against Cleveland, Jackson has reached 200 yards only three times, and he hasn't passed for three touchdowns since (he did have two and a rushing score against Football Team in Week 4). On the plus side, the Cowboys allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their last six games, though four of those included holding quarterbacks under 200 passing yards. Jackson's rushing floor is what separates him from a lot of other quarterbacks,

QUARTERBACKS

On the other side is Andy Dalton ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD), the third-most expensive player on both sites despite almost no rushing floor while failing to reach 220 passing yards in his last two full starts. Dalton has plenty of pass-catching weapons, but he's mostly struggled to accumulate many fantasy points, and he now faces a Ravens defense that's allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. With a potential emphasis on the running game, Dalton doesn't figure to be overly popular in this one, and particularly not as captain/MVP, so there's some contrarian value there.

RUNNING BACKS

Before we hit on the pass catchers we may as well dive into the running backs because it's likely they'll be more popular, somewhat because of Dalton. Cowboys' starter Ezekiel Elliott ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD) is the second-most expensive player on both sites and likely the first place many will go to for Dallas exposure against a Ravens defense that allowed over 130 rushing yards to running backs in two of their last three games. Unfortunately, Elliott hasn't been good since Dak Prescott's season-ending injury, rushing for more than 65 yards just once since Week 5, a span that saw him score just one touchdown (a receiving score against Minnesota in Week 11 when he rushed 21 times for 103 yards). The whole offense stalls with Dalton, so you can definitely make the case that paying so much for Elliot isn't an optimal use of salary if you're only getting eight fantasy points.

Given his struggles, you have to assume Elliott's monster contract is the reason Tony Pollard ($2,600 DK, $7,500 FD) isn't getting more opportunities, as he rushed seven times for 40 yards in Week 8, nine times for 57 yards in Week 9 and five times for 60 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 (they were off in Week 10) before a pedestrian four for 12 on Thanksgiving. Pollard should surely be in the player pool for those who make multiple lineups because he has shown he can make something happen even in limited touches. The game script doesn't necessarily work for him or Elliott, but strange things happen all the time, so who knows?

The Baltimore backfield situation is a bit tougher because they have all of their running backs available now that J.K. Dobbins ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD) and Mark Ingram ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) are re-integrated following their COVID absences. Given their returns, it doesn't seem likely that Gus Edwards ($5,400 DK, $12,500 FD) and Justice Hill ($1,600 DK, $7,500 FD) will get enough touches to justify rostering, particularly Edwards at his FanDuel price, which is obviously set assuming he's starting again after doing so last week when Dobbins and Ingram were out. Edwards could end up more with touches than Ingram, but paying $12,500 for a guy who isn't likely to lead the team in rushing attempts is a bit nuts.

Dobbins is likely to be the most popular because he's likely to get the most touches against a Cowboys defense that's allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. We obviously have to remember that Jackson takes a lot of the Ravens' rushing attempts, so it's not only the running backs we have to contend with, but a Dobbins captain/MVP is an interesting play off Jackson in the hopes he gets the goal-line work to overcome Jackson's potential passing volume.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The Cowboys definitely have more talented wide receivers than the Ravens, but they're also facing a defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position this season, including a league-low six receiving touchdowns. Amari Cooper ($9,600 DK, $13,500 FD) has been pretty solid recently, with at least six catches for 81 yards in back-to-back games, including 112 and a touchdown against Football Team on Thanksgiving. That's not to take away from CeeDee Lamb ($6,600 DK, $11,500 FD), Michael Gallup ($4,400 DK, $8,500 FD) or tight end Dalton Schultz ($5,200 DK, $8,000 FD), who have each had at least five targets in four straight games, but Cooper is the only one to reach even 75 yards in that span.

Even though he's the most expensive, it seems Cooper is likely to be the most popular among the Cowboys' pass catchers, with some fantasy players paying down for Lamb in the hopes he can provide a big play to make up for the lower volume. Gallup and Schultz are likely to be the least used of the four, and they profile quite differently, as Gallup leads the team with a 12.6 aDOT on 68 targets while Schultz's 6.9 on 66 is one of the lowest on the team. Lamb leads the team with four touchdowns, though that's only one ahead of Cooper and Schultz, so it's not like he separates much anyway in that respect.

Baltimore's pass-catching group has a big void, as tight end Mark Andrews, who leads them in receptions (38) and receiving touchdowns (six), is still on the reserve/COVID list, as is wide receiver Willie Snead, who is third in targets (40), receptions (28) and receiving yards (379). That could theoretically open things up for Marquise Brown ($7,200 DK, $10,500 FD), who led the team with eight targets last week when Andrews and Snead were also out, finishing with four catches on eight targets for 85 yards and a touchdown, with a majority of that coming on a 70-yard score. It's worth pointing out that it came from third-string quarterback Trace McSorley, who won't play Tuesday.

Other than Brown, Jackson will be looking at guys like Dez Bryant ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) against his old team, returner Devin Duvernay ($800 DK, $7,000 FD), Miles Boykin ($600 DK, $6,500 FD) and Luke Willson ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD). Willson was targeted only twice last week when Andrews was out, failing to catch either ball, but with how much Jackson generally likes to throw to his tight ends (again, Jackson didn't play last week), Willson isn't a bad look, particularly in the red zone. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including a league-high 19 touchdowns, so you have to feel a little confident in the Ravens' pass catchers even though the team doesn't really love to throw the ball. Brown is likely to be the most popular because he's the best one, but don't rule out how many people will use the multiplier spot on Bryant simply because of the revenge game narrative.

KICKERS

A lower-scoring game should put both kickers in play, and it actually seems like a decent situation to play both in cash games. Despite the Cowboys mostly disappointing this season, Greg Zuerlein ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) has been a fairly consistent fantasy option, more so than Justin Tucker ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD), who is a better real-life kicker. The path for both being useful is that the teams can move the ball effectively but not score touchdowns, and with a 45.0-point total we'll certainly see some but not many end-zone trips.

The upside is more obvious with guys in their price range like Gallup and Pollard, but you can see a lack of volume with those guys makes the floors of the kickers more reasonable.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Because they are more than a touchdown favorite, the Ravens defense ($5,800 DK) is understandably much more expensive than the Cowboys ($3,200), who come in with three turnovers and five sacks in the last three games combined. Despite his excellent running ability, Jackson has been sacked 24 times in 10 starts this season, so there's theoretically some potential there for the Cowboys, but they still aren't great enough that many people will be targeting them. The Ravens, on the other hand, could be popular because they're an elite team against a fairly poor offense. Then again, they haven't been great fantasy scorers, with three turnovers and three sacks in the past three games, so they shouldn't be overly popular. They are priced around guys like Ingram, Edwards and Schultz, but it seems more likely fantasy players will just say out of that price range instead of choosing from it.