This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 9 is upon us, though it unfortunately comes with what looks to be a potential snoozer of a matchup between the Steelers and Titans. The total is somewhere between 36.5 and 37 points with Pittsburgh a 2.5- to 3-point favorite. That leaves Pittsburgh with an implied team total of about 19.5 and Tennessee 17.0.
Quarterback
This is an intriguing position, as one option has a narrow range of outcomes and the other a very wide range. Kenny Pickett ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) falls in the former category. His highest point total for the season is 18.5 points and he's topped 15 points only twice. On top of that, Pickett suffered a rib injury in Sunday's loss to the Jaguars. He said Tuesday it's possible he can't push the ball down the field on a short week. There's likely a perception that Tennessee is an easy matchup, but it's allowed only 12.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks the last three weeks and 17 fantasy points the last five weeks. There's not much of a case to make for Pickett, other than the fact that he checks in cheaper than nearly any quarterback on showdown slates.
The more Intriguing option is Will Levis ($9,600 DK, $15,000 FD), who lit up the Falcons for four touchdowns in his NFL debut. He showed a strong arm, throwing for touchdowns of 61, 47 and 33 yards. Every game won't go like that, but Levis showed more ceiling than Pickett has early in his career. In terms of matchup, the Steelers grade out around league average but have yet to give up more than 21.8 fantasy points to a quarterback this season. Their season high allowed is 16.8, which came in Week 1 to Brock Purdy.
Overall, there's a straightforward case to fade both quarterbacks, but Levis is the far better option to roster.
Running Back
Much has been made of the backfield split between Derrick Henry ($11,600 DK, $16,000 FD) and Tyjae Spears ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD), but their production hasn't been comparable as Henry has doubled Spears' production in terms of average fantasy points per game on both sites. He's performed better in wins or competitive games, which should fit the game script Thursday night. After a relatively slow start to the season, he has topped 100 total yards in three of four games with 19.2 to 27.38 DK points.
Spears is touchdown-dependent. He has more value on DK due to his role as a pass catcher but still has failed to top 8.8 points with the exception of one game. Volume is definitely not on his side, but in his last three games, he's had a reception of 48 yards and scored a touchdown. The Steelers have allowed more than 20 fantasy points to three running backs this season and surrendered 19.7 points to the combination of Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman.
Henry is the most expensive player on both sites but has arguably the highest floor and ceiling. Spears is a decent value option on the hopes of breaking a big play.
The split in Pittsburgh is more legitimate. Najee Harris ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD) has seen at least 15 touches in four of his last five games. The problem is that he hasn't topped 14.3 FD points or 15.8 DK points in that span. Rostering him is hoping for a low-scoring game — lower than the game total — and hoping he scores one of only a couple touchdowns in the game.
Jaylen Warren ($6,400 DK, $10,000 FD) has yet to see double-digit rushes in a game and has reached double-digit FD points only once. Like Spears, he's more viable on DK, where he's recorded double-digit DK points in four of seven games. Extending the comparison, Spears is $1,000 cheaper and is more explosive than Warren.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The target breakdown in Pittsburgh is straightforward, as it is dominated by Diontae Johnson ($8,400 DK, $12,000 FD) and George Pickens ($8,800 DK, $14,000 FD). The reputation of the pair is that Johnson is more a possession receiver and Pickens a deep threat. That hasn't played out in an extreme way, as Johnson has a 27.1 percent target-per-routes-run rate, 2.21 yards per target and a 12.1 aDOT. Pickens has marks of a 24.9 percent, 2.45 and 14.4, respectively. Pickens also has the same number of red-zone targets as Johnson despite playing in four more games. I'd be inclined to take the discount on Johnson, but Pickens has topped 25 DK points twice.
Even in the absence of Pat Freiermuth (hamstring), Connor Heyward ($2,800 DK, $7,500 FD) has yet to top 24 yards. He could be a punt play on DK, as he has three and five targets in two of his last three games. The only other name worth mentioning is Calvin Austin ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD). He has only three targets combined across his last three games, but he is a punt option with big-play ability.
Flipping to Tennessee, DeAndre Hopkins ($11,200 DK, $13,000 FD) is expected to play through a toe injury. Last week's three-touchdown outburst skews his season-long stats, with the exception of his target volume. He leads the team by a significant margin in routes run and targets per route run, and he has reached 25 DK points twice. He and Pickens share a similar profile in that they could both completely disappear, but they also have the potential to take over the slate. It was clear that Levis was more willing to push the ball down the field more than Ryan Tannehill (ankle), which will undoubtedly benefit Hopkins.
The only other two pass catchers with a consistent role behind Hopkins are Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,400 DK, $8,000 FD) and Chigoziem Okonkwo ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD). Both have abysmal efficiency — 1.31 and 0.97 yards per route run, respectively — yet they each bring something to the table, particularly at cost. Westbrook-Ikhine has seen five targets inside the 20, accounting for 21 percent of the team's targets inside the red zone. Okonkwo has a respectable 20.7 percent target per route ran route, but is held back by his aforementioned horrendous efficiency.
Of the secondary options, I'd rank them Westbrook-Ikhine, Okonkwo, Heyward, Austin.
Kicker
Both Nick Folk ($4,600 DK, $8,500 FD) and Chris Boswell ($5,000 DK, $9,000 FD) are accurate, but both have had limited volume due to the poor state of their offenses. Folk hasn't missed a kick this season, yet he has surpassed two field goals made only twice since Week 1. Similarly, Boswell has made more than two field goals only twice this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Neither team has an elite offense, but neither unit turns the ball over at an excessive rate. That said, both the Titans ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD) and Steelers ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) should get to the quarterback. The Steelers are the more intriguing option and have averaged 14.5 points in home games this year.
