NFL Picks and Props for Week 18

Daniel Dobish wades through a tricky Week 18 in the NFL and shares his best plays from the card as the regular season comes to an end

January 3, 2026

By:

Daniel Dobish

January 3, 2026

NFL Picks

NFL Picks and Props for Week 18

The 2025 National Football League wraps up the regular season, and it's a strange week. Teams are resting guys and shutting players down early, and there are very few games which mean anything outside of pride. However, we still have some jockeying for seeds, while other guys are looking to show out for 2026, either with their current team, or a future employer. Let's get started!

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Los Angeles Charger at Denver Broncos Prop Plays

*Best lines at time of writing listed

In one of those games of importance, the Chargers (11-5) travel to meet the Broncos (13-3). While Denver is going full out for a No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a potential first-round bye, the Chargers appear to be going a different direction.

The division title is no longer possible after last week's 20-16 loss to the Houston Texans, and the Chargers clearly do not care much about seeding. QB Trey Lance is expected to start in place of QB Justin Herbert, while RB Omarion Hampton is out due to an ailment, and RBs Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal also carry questionable tags. In other words, outside of Lance, we'll be avoiding Chargers props like the plague, if they're even offered in the first place.

In fact, Lance faces a tough matchup against a hungry Broncos team playing for home-field advantage. He is unlikely to exceed his projections, especially with no real run game to speak of. However, he might become LA's run game. Go Over on his rushing projections.

The Bolts might be short in the defensive backfield, as S RJ Mickens (shoulder) and Benjamin St-Juste (shoulder) are listed as questionable, and DB Elijah Molden (hamstring) is doubtful, while CB Nikko Reed (hamstring) is out.

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As such, look for QB Bo Nix to be slinging it early and often. Somebody's gotta snag those passes, too, and WR Courtland Sutton has been resurgent lately. He has four or more receptions in six straight games, and 10 or more targets in four in a row. Go high on his catch total, in addition to the yardage.

In addition, TE Evan Engram has some rather low projections. He has six grabs for 57 yards in the past two games. He hasn't dominated, but a total under 20 yards is rather low.

Best Prop Pick: Chargers QB Trey Lance - Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Best Prop Pick: Broncos QB Bo Nix - Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Best Prop Pick: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton - Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Best Prop Picks: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton - Over 4.5 Receptions (+102 FanDuel)

Best Prop Picks: Broncos TE Evan Engram - Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Prop Plays

*Best lines at time of writing listed

In a winner-take-all battle for the AFC North Division, the Ravens and Steelers lock horns at Acrisure Stadium in the Sunday Night Football game on NBC.

The Over/Under on this is not offered, but let's have some fun. Even though the Kansas City Chiefs have nothing to do with this game, and are eliminated, how many times does Cris Collinsworth say "Patrick Mahomes"? I'll set the Over/Under at just 1.5. What's your play?

Baltimore's Derrick Henry crushed me, and many people, in their fantasy football championships last week. He rumbled for 216 rushing yards and four touchdowns last Saturday in Green Bay, single-handedly putting the Ravens on his back to get them in position for this game. It also helps that the Steelers wet the bed in Cleveland, putting them in this do-or-die situation. Anyway, Henry won't have nearly the same heroics, but he will flirt with the century mark.

On the other side, the Steelers offense was moribund last week, amassing just six points in an ugly showing at Cleveland. It didn't help that the only downfield threat, WR DK Metcalf, was serving the first of a two-game suspension for being goaded into a fracas with a fan in the stands in Detroit in Week 16. With Metcalf out again, look for RB Kenneth Gainwell to benefit with plenty of receptions and yardage.

We're going to key on Jaylen Warren to bowl one in from the goal line, too, and for the opportunity to nearly double up, he's too hard to pass up.

Best Prop Pick: Ravens RB Derrick Henry - Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Best Prop Pick: Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell - Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Best Prop Pick: Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell - Over 4.5 Total Receptions (-125 FanDuel)

Best Prop Pick: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren - Anytime Touchdown (+195 FanDuel)

Best Prop Plays - Week 18