This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Thursday night's matchup features the two most recent No. 1 draft picks as Joe Burrow and the 2-1 Bengals play host to Trevor Lawrence and the winless Jaguars. Cincinnati has been impressive on both sides of the ball to start the season and that has it favored by 7.5 points in a game with a modest 45.5-point total. Expect most to be heavier on the Bengals, which will make it easier to be unique by planning for Jaguars win. I'll likely go the other way and play for a Bengals blowout on most of my builds. Whichever way you choose, remember that the most important thing for these large field tournaments is making sure that you don't duplicate lineups with too many people. Start by avoiding the most obvious builds and then avoid making lineups that use the entire salary. Pick a specific score and then make a lineup that fits. Good Luck!
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Burrow ($11,600 DK, $15,000 FD) has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season despite a cautious approach on offense. The Bengals have made it a priority to keep Burrow upright after he tore his knee last season behind a bad offensive line. Incredibly, he wasn't hit once last week against the Steelers as he completed 14 of 18 passes for 172 yards and three scores. Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of sack rate and has given up the third-highest yards per pass attempt to QBs. If ever there was a time for Cincinnati to open up the offense and let Burrow take some shots, Thursday night at home against a bad defense seems like the perfect spot. Quarterbacks are usually popular in the captain/MVP spots, but I prefer him in the flex on DraftKings considering he's the most expensive player on the slate. If you do choose to captain him, make sure roster him with multiple pass catchers as he will need multiple TDs to different players for that path to be optimal.
Trevor Lawrence ($10,400 DK, $14,500 FD) has shown flashes of the potential that made him the league's No. 1 pick this year but he's thrown seven interceptions and lost two fumbles through three weeks. He will have his work cut out for him against a tough Bengals defense that has recorded at least three sacks in every game and has yet to allow a top 10 fantasy performance from a quarterback. The game script sets up better for Lawrence than it does for the Jaguars running game, however. Cincinnati allows just 3.0 yards per carry and the Jags are expected to be playing from behind, meaning Lawrence will need to throw. I'll have exposure to Lawrence in my builds that plan for a close game, but I'll avoid him in the captain spot. He's too expensive and I don't expect to see him hit a ceiling often.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Tee Higgins ($8,000 DK, $11,000 FD) missed last week with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out for Thursday. In his absence, Auden Tate ($400 DK, $6,000 FD) played 27 snaps while Mike Thomas ($600 DK, $5,500) played 10. Either would be viable considering the cheap salaries, but I'd prefer Tate based on the significant edge in snap count. Higgins absence also means that the majority of targets should go to Ja'Marr Chase ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD) and Tyler Boyd ($7,400 DK, $10,000 FD). Chase is the home-run threat. He already has four TDs in three games and has three receptions of at least 34 yards. Boyd frequently works out of the slot as more of a possession WR and is coming off his first TD of the season last week. I expected the two to be priced a bit closer so Boyd seems like a bargain for Thursday. I'll have significant exposure to both players, but I'll be heavier on Boyd because of the big gap in salaries.
Marvin Jones ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD) is Jacksonville's leading receiver and the clear No. 1 option for Lawrence. He has caught at least five balls in every game while seeing at least eight targets in each. DJ Chark ($7,200 DK, $10,500 FD) has played 90 percent of the offensive snaps while establishing himself as the main deep threat for the Jags. He has 22 targets and two TDs in three weeks after many experts wrote him off prior to the season. Laviska Shenault ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD) has caught 13 of 21 targets but has yet to surpass 50 yards in a game this season. He normally runs shorter routes as the Jags look to get the ball in his hands quickly. You can make credible arguments for preferring any of the three. I prefer the WRs over the RBs and TEs, so I'll have exposure to all. My lean would be toward whoever is least popular as it wouldn't be surprising to see Chark or Shenault outscore Jones.
C.J. Uzomah ($4,000 DK, $7,500 FD) is the only tight end who has caught a pass for the Bengals this season. Last week he played 70 percent of the snaps without catching a pass but caught two balls in each of the first two weeks. I don't expect him to be very popular based on those numbers, but I still have some interest. He's cheap and he catches touchdowns. It wouldn't take much for him to outscore the kickers and defenses in his price range. The Jags traded for Dan Arnold ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) on Monday and it's unclear what his role will be for Thursday, but expect him to get up to speed quickly. Jacob Hollister ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) played 68 percent of snaps last week and saw six targets. I don't expect him to be quite as involved this week, but for that cheap of a salary it's worth the gamble.
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD) has 73 touches through three weeks. He's one of the few three-down running backs in the league. The matchup against Jacksonville is ideal as they've given up the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Mixon projects as the top overall play on the slate. Normally I look to avoid RBs in the captain/MVP spot, but this will be an exception. There are just too many scenarios where Mixon ends up the top scorer. I'd expect others to feel the same way and thus he will be a popular choice. I'll look to get different by either leaving salary on the table or playing for a very specific game script.
James Robinson ($9,400 DK, $12,000 FD) is coming off his best game of the season, both from a rushing and receiving standpoint. He had 88 yards on the ground and caught all six of his targets for 46 yards. Fifteen targets through three weeks is encouraging because the Bengals are good at stopping the run, but they've allowed more catches to RBs than any team in the league. Robinson out-snapped backup RB Carlos Hyde ($1,800 DK, $8,000 FD) 40 to 23. Hyde had eight carries last week but wasn't targeted in the passing game after seeing four targets the first two weeks. Most of my game scripts are planning for a convincing Bengals win, so I'll be underweight on Robinson and instead run my stacks back with Jaguar WRs. Hyde is cheap and he makes sense in blowout scenarios as the backup who's likely to see work in the second half if the game is out of hand.
KICKERS
The kickers are always viable in games with lower totals, and we've seen them on quite a few optimal lineups recently. As of now, Evan McPherson ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is the only kicker we can roster after Josh Lambo ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) was ruled out Tuesday. The Jaguars likely will promote Matthew Wright from the practice squad, but he's currently not in the player pool on either site. McPherson is the one we want to roster anyway with the Bengals being 7.5-point favorites. Often it doesn't take a lot for a kicker to be optimal because he only has to outscore the tight ends and defenses in their salary range. Remember that 50-yard field goal is essentially the same as a TD. I'll be overweight on McPherson.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bengals ($5,600) defense is underrated. It's held RBs to just 3.0 yards per carry and has 12 sacks through the first three weeks. Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball over nine times already this season. All this considered, it makes sense that the salary is higher than we normally see for a defense. We've seen the expensive defenses fail more often than not and this might be a spot to fade if they're going to be popular. They still make sense in blowout scenarios but I'll be underweight based on the inflated salary. The Jaguars ($3,000) defense hasn't stopped anyone. I don't expect them to be popular as big road underdogs but that's exactly why they're still in play for me. Joe Burrow has thrown four INTs in three weeks. All it takes is a pick six or punt return TD to make them an optimal play at $3,000. This is why I don't mind rostering them even in Bengals stacks, especially because very few will do it.
