Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Browns

The second Thursday night game of the season pits AFC North foes against each other in the battle for Ohio (eye roll), with the 0-1 Bengals traveling to play the 0-1 Browns. Cincinnati was at least close to winning (or not losing) their Week 1 game against the Chargers, but a missed field goal with seven seconds left clinched their 16-13 defeat. It was a very unfortunate result after rookie quarterback Joe Burrow led a late drive that started at his own 18-yard line to set up the game-tying 31-yard field goal, only to see it go wide right. Those who were fortunate enough to get Bengals +3.5 were certainly fine with the outcome, though the late-week move to +3.0 wasn't as fun.

Meanwhile, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens in Baltimore, but that has done little to make people think they aren't firmly the better team Thursday, as they come in as 6.0-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. For reference, the 49ers are 7.0-point road favorites against the Jets in a game with a 42.5-point total while the Bears are -5.5 against the Giants with a 42.5-point total. On the surface, it feels like this game should be closer, something echoed by our very own Chris Liss, who thought the line should be Browns -4.0 and guessed it would be -3.0.

What's also a bit weird about this game is that there are a ton of play-makers who have high fantasy ceilings, and yet a 43.5-point total doesn't imply we'll see much production. There also isn't a fairly obvious lineup construction, so we should see plenty of variations in cash games and tournaments.

QUARTERBACKS

The 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick will face off against the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, and they are the two highest-priced players, with Joe Burrow ($10,800 DK, $14,500 FD) and Baker Mayfield ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD) swapped on each site. Neither was particularly effective in the first week of the season, though Burrow did show off what he can do with his legs on a 23-yard rushing touchdown, the Bengals' only trip to the end zone against the Chargers. Meanwhile, Mayfield really struggled against one of the best defenses in the league, completing 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards and one touchdown. 

The defenses will surely be easier opponents for the quarterbacks than Week 1, but it's tough to get overly excited about either of them for a variety of reasons. You can make the case that they each spread the ball around enough that just getting all of the passing production through them is the way to go, but you really have to pay up for them, which doesn't provide much optimism when Mayfield has a 239.5-yard passing over/under prop on DraftKings Sportsbook while Burrow is at 240.5 (and it's -118 for the under versus -106 for the over). Adding to that, Mayfield is -136 to score fewer than 1.5 touchdowns and Burrow -186.

This all being said, people love playing quarterbacks in showdown/single game slates and so each one will surely be more popular that they should be. Pairing the two together seems like an egregious use of salary, especially if one is a captain/MVP, with my assumption that Burrow might be the more popular one because we don't really know how good he is yet.

PASS CATCHERS

Using Burrow and/or Mayfield makes sense if you think they spread around their passes so that no single receiver has a dominant game. One issue with that line of thinking is that this game has a number of receivers who could put up big fantasy scores, and if one of them does then you're unlikely to win a GPP if you don't have them in the captain/MVP slot. Remember, it's usually more beneficial to captain the receiver and have the quarterback in the flex if the receiver has a significant share of the receiving production, as he gets points for each catch, more points for the receiving yards than the passing yards and more points for the receiving touchdown than the passing one.

Despite catching just five of nine targets for 51 yards in Week 1, Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) led the team with 127 air yards and almost had a game-winning touchdown if not for an offensive pass interference call in the end zone that nullified the score. Green, who missed all of last season due to injury, is certainly being priced as if those air yards were actual receiving yards, as he's the most expensive non-quarterback on DraftKings, though he's the fourth-highest non-quarterback on FanDuel. Green is an elite receiver when healthy, something that's been an issue over the past few years. Nevertheless, if Burrow connects on more of his targets to Green, who led the team with nine last week, he could be a very beneficial captain/MVP.

Four players tied for second with five targets each, including wide receivers Tyler Boyd ($7,000 DK, $10,000 FD) and John Ross ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD), who caught four for 33 yards and two for 17 yards, respectively. Despite the lower actual production, Ross actually finished with 61 air yards, trailing only Green, while Boyd's 34 air yards continue to show that his value is about catching passes and not necessarily making long plays. Tight end C.J. Uzomah, who caught four of five targets for 33 yards, also finished with more air yards (46) than Boyd, though his 22 yards after the catch may not be an easily repeatable action. Mike Thomas ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) can be added to the wide receiver group but probably shouldn't be anywhere near cash lineups, which can also be said about backup tight end Drew Sample, who grabbed his only target last week for seven yards, eight of which were after the catch. The longer shot guys include Tee Higgins ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD) and Auden Tate ($2,200 DK, $5,000 FD), who really have no justification for being in cash lineups or those with minimal GPP lines.

Using Boyd or Ross as a captain/MVP isn't the craziest idea, even for those who do limited lineups in GPPs, as they could certainly be the guy Burrow focuses on in a potentially low-scoring game. Ross has the big-play upside of the two, though Boyd is capable of longer plays if he can get loose from the defense after a short catch.

The Cleveland side is similar in the fact that they have play-makers but they don't have as many options. One would think that Odell Beckham ($8,200 DK, $11,500 FD) had a strong Week 1 based on his 10 targets and 102 air yards, but the final product was far from strong, as he caught only three passes for 22 yards. Things were better for Jarvis Landry ($8,000 DK, $10,500 FD), who had a team-high five catches on his six targets, which went for 61 yards, but he's unfortunately questionable to play because of a hip issue, though it's believed to be a precautionary move because he had surgery on that hip during the off-season. Things could look bleak for the Browns if he doesn't play, especially because David Njoku, who scored a touchdown in Week 1, has been ruled out with a knee injury. The off-season addition of tight end Austin Hooper ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD) apparently woke Njoku up last week, but Hooper could be the second-most popular Browns pass catcher if Landry isn't able to go. Hooper only caught two of two targets for 15 yards (15 air yards) against the Ravens, but really most people didn't score well.

One name that stood out was KhaDarel Hodge ($400 DK, $6,000 FD), who could be moved into the starting lineup if Landry can't go. Hodge's three targets were more than what Hooper, Rashard Higgins ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD), Harrison Bryant ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Stephen Carlson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) had, and there is certainly an air of opportunity at a really low salary if he can do more than the one catch for 12 yards (32 air yards) he put up last week. Hodge could certainly be a popular play, even in cash games, if Landry joins Njoku on the sideline.

Overall, Beckham will certainly get some captain/MVP attention because of the upside we've seen in the past, while Landry is more of a consistent producer with somewhat limited upside. Hooper probably won't get much captain/MVP consideration, and rightfully so, as tight ends very rarely put up huge scores, or at least ones not named George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz.

RUNNING BACKS

The backfield situations are pretty similar, as we have two early down backs who should get a majority of the carries and two pass catchers who will do their work on third downs. The Bengals' Joe Mixon ($8,600 DK, $13,00 FD) is the most expensive running back on DraftKings, while the Browns' Nick Chubb ($7,600 DK, $13,500 FD) takes that spot on FanDuel. Chubb's price on FanDuel actually makes him the most expensive non-quarterback, as there was clearly no over-reaction to Chubb getting three fewer carries than Kareem Hunt ($7,400 DK, $9,500 FD) last week. However, it's imperative to recognize that because the Browns got blasted, there was very little for Chubb to do since Hunt is the pass-catching back more likely to play in a hurry-up offense that's trying to put points on the board. Hunt's four receptions and six targets were each the second-most on the team, but he still only managed nine receiving yards (six air yards). Those figures surely are expected to be better Thursday because of the significantly worse defense he's facing, though he's also unlikely to play as many snaps because Chubb will presumably have more carries in a closer game.

Given the Browns' potential lack of receivers, playing both Chubb and Hunt isn't out of the question, and Chubb could be a popular captain on DraftKings because he's pretty affordable versus the wideouts and Mayfield. Hunt shouldn't get as much captain/MVP consideration because he's more likely to only see work on third downs.

Meanwhile, Mixon should get a vast majority of the backfield touches for Cincinnati, as he got 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts last week, turning them into 69 yards while also losing a fumble. However, Giovani Bernard ($3,000 DK, $7,000 FD) got the work through the air, tying Boyd, Ross and Uzomah with five targets, catching four for 21 yards. The difference between Mixon and Bernard is bigger than the one between Chubb and Hunt, enough so that there doesn't seem to be any benefit to really considering Bernard as a captain/MVP because the volume just won't be there unless Mixon gets hurt. On that note, Mixon will certainly be a captain/MVP consideration for many, as the possibility of using him a ton to keep the Browns off the field is well within the range of outcomes for the Bengals.

KICKERS

A somewhat lower-scoring game puts both kickers in play, and if you think it's a game without touchdowns then you really need to consider the possibility of captaining/MVPing either Cody Parkey ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD) or Randy Bullock ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD), and you really shouldn't throw out the idea of rostering both. It's gross, I know, but we have two teams that could struggle to put the ball across the goal line, and those situations are usually golden for kickers.

We generally consider kickers more in cash games because they have higher floors than the players in their salary tier, but with guys like Hunt, Hooper, Ross and Bernard in that group on FanDuel, they may not be as interesting. However, DraftKings puts them with guys like Uzomah, both defenses and Bernard, where they could actually match their respective upsides (maybe not the defenses), even if they don't have ceiling games.

DEFENSES

While a relatively low-scoring game will make some people think that defenses should be strong considerations, we have to remember that defenses score points off turnovers and not necessarily few points allowed. The Bengals ($3,600 DK) are the underdog, but they're also facing a quarterback that threw more interceptions than every quarterback in the NFL last season not named Jameis Winston, and he was tied for seventh in sacks.

On the flip side, the Browns are facing a rookie quarterback in his first road game and still have a strong defensive line, and they are six-point favorites. Captaining either side is bold, but again, you need them to rack up turnovers and sacks, and hopefully a defensive or special teams touchdown, for that to really work out.