This article is part of our Survivor series.
Just when you think you're starting to figure things out ... the NFL happens. Year after year, week after week, it's the same.
But part of that is our fault because we often just assume too much. The Packers will bounce back because they're not this bad — they're the Packers! Tom Brady won't let the Buccaneers lose to the Steelers!
After last week's bloodbath, one might be tempted to say, "I told you take the Rams!" But that might be a bit arrogant from a guy who made some seemingly poor assumptions on the next three teams on the list of picks — Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers.
As was known entering last week, the Packers are flat-out bad on offense — they can't throw deep and they oddly refuse to ride their only playermaker, Aaron Jones; he's had more than 15 touches twice this year, never more than 20 (12 last week).
As was known entering last week, the Bucs' offense has been lackluster all season — 10 touchdowns in six games (one last week).
As was known entering last week, Nick Bosa was out for the 49ers. Think that might impact the 49ers' defense? Bosa had 23 of San Francisco's 58 QB pressures the first five weeks — 40 percent. Marcus Mariota had only 17 dropbacks last week, but the Niners got just two pressures — both sacks, meaning on his other 15 dropbacks, Mariota had all day to pick out a receiver, which he did 13
Just when you think you're starting to figure things out ... the NFL happens. Year after year, week after week, it's the same.
But part of that is our fault because we often just assume too much. The Packers will bounce back because they're not this bad — they're the Packers! Tom Brady won't let the Buccaneers lose to the Steelers!
After last week's bloodbath, one might be tempted to say, "I told you take the Rams!" But that might be a bit arrogant from a guy who made some seemingly poor assumptions on the next three teams on the list of picks — Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers.
As was known entering last week, the Packers are flat-out bad on offense — they can't throw deep and they oddly refuse to ride their only playermaker, Aaron Jones; he's had more than 15 touches twice this year, never more than 20 (12 last week).
As was known entering last week, the Bucs' offense has been lackluster all season — 10 touchdowns in six games (one last week).
As was known entering last week, Nick Bosa was out for the 49ers. Think that might impact the 49ers' defense? Bosa had 23 of San Francisco's 58 QB pressures the first five weeks — 40 percent. Marcus Mariota had only 17 dropbacks last week, but the Niners got just two pressures — both sacks, meaning on his other 15 dropbacks, Mariota had all day to pick out a receiver, which he did 13 times at 9.9 YPA (with one 15-yard scramble). Worse, the Falcons rushed for 168 yards and dominated time of possession.
Then again, maybe this is just hindsight talking. Even with those known warts, it wasn't crazy to think those teams could still win. It's the NFL, after all.
Hopefully, you still had the Rams available. In my pool, 26 pickers were eliminated on the Packers, Buccaneers and 49ers while 29 advanced with the Rams. Of the original 410 entries, just 36 remain — 8.7 percent.
Last week was also an example of why it's unwise to "save" teams. No one knows what's going to happen week to week, let alone weeks down the line. This is no time to get cute.
On to Week 7.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Bears | 31.10% | 342.5 | 77.40% | 7.03 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 24.30% | 478 | 82.70% | 4.20 |
| RAIDERS | Texans | 16.60% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 4.47 |
| COWBOYS | Lions | 11.60% | 274 | 73.26% | 3.10 |
| DOLPHINS | Steelers | 3.80% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 1.02 |
| BENGALS | Falcons | 3.60% | 245 | 71.01% | 1.04 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 3.30% | 249 | 71.35% | 0.95 |
| CHARGERS | Seahawks | 2.20% | 249 | 71.35% | 0.63 |
| Packers | COMMANDERS | 1.10% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.37 |
| Chiefs | 49ERS | 0.70% | 153.5 | 60.55% | 0.28 |
| Giants | JAGUARS | 0.30% | 153.5 | 60.55% | 0.12 |
| TITANS | Colts | 0.30% | 137 | 57.81% | 0.13 |
| CARDINALS | Saints | 0.20% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.10 |
| Jets | BRONCOS | 0.20% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.09 |
The Patriots seem to be the clear answer this week. Nearly 25 percent of the sample above thinks the Buccaneers definitely will bounce back. If so, it will be more because of the opponent (the Panthers) than the Buccaneers, who really haven't done much offensively this year. I'd think more would be on the Patriots.
In any event, there's no a pot-odds play this week. Hopefully, you have the Patriots available. Feel free to hash it out in the comments or let me know if I've made bad assumptions.
My Picks
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick has the New England defense rolling. The Patriots shut out the Lions 29-0 in Week 5 and then last week beat the Browns 38-15 on the road. Now they get arguably the worst offense in the league in the Bears — in front of a Monday night-fueled home crowd, no less. Mac Jones could be back for the Patriots, but Bailey Zappe has been solid anyway.
Dallas Cowboys
The one (slight) hesitation in this one is that the Lions are coming off a bye. But Dallas' defense is legit and should shut down a Lions a offense that was shut out by the Patriots when it last took the field. Offensively, the Cowboys don't light it up, and likely won't even if Dak Prescott returns, but the Lions' defense is so bad Dallas doesn't have to be a machine. After a rough loss at Philadelphia, this could be a get-right game at home against a Lions team whose one win this season came against the Commanders.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers haven't looked great, but they're getting by. The Seahawks' terrible defense had an aberrational performance last week against the Cardinals at home, but it's unlikely it's turned a corner. Maybe the Seahawks, whose offense is better than expected, keep up with the Chargers for two or three quarters, but eventually the Chargers pull away.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs can't play that poorly two weeks in a row, right? Well, it's possible. Tampa Bay's offense definitely is scuffling. But the Panthers just seem dead in the water. Sure, they played the Rams tight for a half last week, but they've scored more than 16 points once since Week 1 and third-stringer Jacob Eason could start if backup PJ Walker can't go because of a neck injury. Plus, Tom Brady probably doesn't have a wedding to attend the Friday before the game this week. Friday Edit: With Christian McCaffrey's trade to the 49ers, I'd bump this game to my second favorite on the list. It's only slightly below the Patriots. With McCaffrey, Carolina had problems scoring. Without McCaffrey? It could get ugly quickly.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return this week for the Dolphins. Miami was playing well before he got knocked out and then lost three in a row without him. A Sunday night home game against the Steelers seems like a good welcome back. The Steelers could be in for a letdown after a big win last week against the Bucs, and Mitch Trubisky is back a quarterback with Kenny Pickett dealing with a concussion. Not a good combo.
Notable Omission:
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 7-point favorites, which makes sense at first glance. Las Vegas have been in every game, losing four games by a combined 14 points. But if the Raiders get credit for close games, why shouldn't Houston? The Texans have been in every game too — even in their 10-point loss to the Chargers they scored 17 consecutive points in the second half to pull within three in the fourth quarter. The Raiders are better, but these are both still one-win teams. I'm not risking my Survivor pick on that.
