This article is part of our Survivor series.
Many Survivor pools determined a champ last week with losses by the Packers, Titans, Falcons and Eagles.
My pool had two Survivors left. One took the Packers, the other the Rams. I was glad to see it go down like that because, as laid out last week, the Rams were the correct pick for that team based on what the other team had remaining. Smart choice by that guy.
Hope you Survived too. But it only gets tougher.
On to Week 16.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | Giants | 32.6% | 600 | 85.7% | 4.66 |
| BRONCOS | Patriots | 26.3% | 265 | 72.6% | 7.21 |
| Bills | CHARGERS | 17.3% | 600 | 85.7% | 2.47 |
| Packers | PANTHERS | 11.1% | 205 | 67.2% | 3.64 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 4.0% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 0.74 |
| BEARS | Cardinals | 2.5% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.83 |
| RAMS | Saints | 1.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.53 |
| JETS | Commanders | 0.8% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.32 |
| Bengals | STEELERS | 0.8% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.36 |
| Colts | FALCONS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| Lions | VIKINGS | 0.4% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.16 |
| 49ERS | Ravens | 0.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.10 |
| Seahawks | TITANS | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| BUCCANEERS | Jaguars | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Browns | TEXANS | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As detailed last week, we're at the
Many Survivor pools determined a champ last week with losses by the Packers, Titans, Falcons and Eagles.
My pool had two Survivors left. One took the Packers, the other the Rams. I was glad to see it go down like that because, as laid out last week, the Rams were the correct pick for that team based on what the other team had remaining. Smart choice by that guy.
Hope you Survived too. But it only gets tougher.
On to Week 16.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | Giants | 32.6% | 600 | 85.7% | 4.66 |
| BRONCOS | Patriots | 26.3% | 265 | 72.6% | 7.21 |
| Bills | CHARGERS | 17.3% | 600 | 85.7% | 2.47 |
| Packers | PANTHERS | 11.1% | 205 | 67.2% | 3.64 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 4.0% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 0.74 |
| BEARS | Cardinals | 2.5% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.83 |
| RAMS | Saints | 1.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.53 |
| JETS | Commanders | 0.8% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.32 |
| Bengals | STEELERS | 0.8% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.36 |
| Colts | FALCONS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| Lions | VIKINGS | 0.4% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.16 |
| 49ERS | Ravens | 0.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.10 |
| Seahawks | TITANS | 0.2% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.09 |
| BUCCANEERS | Jaguars | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Browns | TEXANS | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As detailed last week, we're at the point where the above polling data is largely irrelevant. Those still alive should gameplan the rest of the way based on who their competition has available.
Buffalo and Kansas City have likely been used, but if not, this is the week. Buffalo has the Patriots and at the Dolphins remaining; Kansas City has the Bengals and at the Chargers. The only way Kansas City goes all out Week 18 is if the No. 1 seed is still in play.
Philadelphia has the Cardinals and at the Giants, so saving the Eagles for the next couple weeks is probably a better choice.
Then again, if you're still alive those teams are long gone.
If there's a team you're considering not listed below, let us know in the comments. We'll hash it out.
My Picks
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have won two in a row against the Chiefs and Cowboys. Now they must fly cross-country to Los Angeles for a date with the Chargers. Does this set up as a letdown? Not likely. The Chargers are reeling and Justin Herbert is out for the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are coming off a tough loss Monday night to backup QB Drew Lock and a mediocre Seahawks offense, which should be a wakeup call. Fortunately, they could probably sleep walk through this week's game against the Giants and still win. A Christmas game in Philly is a good setting for a bounceback.
Denver Broncos
It's hard to trust the Broncos, who have lost two of three, but the Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the league. Before getting lit up for 42 points by the Lions last week, Denver's defense had improved considerably from earlier in the season, averaging just 16 points allowed per game Weeks 6-14 (2nd in NFL). Expect the Broncos to get back on track in the Sunday night game.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers laid an egg at home last week against the Buccaneers and now travel to face a Panthers team that snapped a six-game losing streak with a 9-7 win against Atlanta last week. Things should return to normal this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have lost four of their last seven and don't look great. One of those wins was at Las Vegas, though, and now they get the Raiders at home. This might not be my first choice, but the Chiefs are increasingly desperate — the AFC's No. 1 seed is still in play — and should win Christmas afternoon. Plus, if you've held them this week, it's go time.
Chicago Bears
The Bears blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead last week, but prior to that had won three of four. The Cardinals are flat-out bad and only put up 29 points on the 49ers last week thanks to garbage time. At Chicago in what likely could be rainy weather doesn't bode well for the Cardinals.
Notable Omission:
None.
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