Last week was more stressful than it needed to be, with my first choice, the Eagles, going down 17-0 in the first half, but all's well that ends well. The only big favorite to lose was the Browns, though the Seahawks had a close call too.
Let's take a look at Week 2:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 30.20% | 1800 | 94.74 | 1.59 |
| RAVENS | Cardinals | 29.00% | 675 | 87.10 | 3.74 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 17.10% | 390 | 79.59 | 3.49 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 10.80% | 265 | 72.60 | 2.96 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 4.70% | 350 | 77.78 | 1.04 |
| Cowboys | REDSKINS | 2.70% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.84 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As you can see, there's a slam dunk choice this week, the only 30-percent-owned Patriots at the Dolphins. There are times when you want to fade the obvious team, but apparently a lot of people want to save the Pats for later in the year. Do not do this.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
Anyone can lose in the NFL -- even the implied Vegas odds put the Dolphins chances at more than five percent, and you wouldn't get on an airplane with a five percent chance of crashing. But this is about as good as it gets, and there's no pot odds fade as the Patriots are only 30 percent owned. I give the Patriots a 94 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
If for whatever
Last week was more stressful than it needed to be, with my first choice, the Eagles, going down 17-0 in the first half, but all's well that ends well. The only big favorite to lose was the Browns, though the Seahawks had a close call too.
Let's take a look at Week 2:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 30.20% | 1800 | 94.74 | 1.59 |
| RAVENS | Cardinals | 29.00% | 675 | 87.10 | 3.74 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 17.10% | 390 | 79.59 | 3.49 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 10.80% | 265 | 72.60 | 2.96 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 4.70% | 350 | 77.78 | 1.04 |
| Cowboys | REDSKINS | 2.70% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.84 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As you can see, there's a slam dunk choice this week, the only 30-percent-owned Patriots at the Dolphins. There are times when you want to fade the obvious team, but apparently a lot of people want to save the Pats for later in the year. Do not do this.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
Anyone can lose in the NFL -- even the implied Vegas odds put the Dolphins chances at more than five percent, and you wouldn't get on an airplane with a five percent chance of crashing. But this is about as good as it gets, and there's no pot odds fade as the Patriots are only 30 percent owned. I give the Patriots a 94 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
If for whatever reason you had a strange vibe about the Patriots, the one credible pivot would be to the Ravens, who are at home and facing a Cardinals team without their best defensive player. I give the Ravens an 87 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Houston Texans - Deshaun Watson looked great last week, but he got knocked around, and the Texans are coming off a short week and an emotional loss.
Carolina Panthers - They're probably the better team and at home, but this could easily turn into a slop fest or a back and forth shootout where either team can win.
Kansas City Chiefs - They're on the road, their quarterback has an ankle injury, and they have to adjust to life without their top wideout. Plus Oakland looked competent last week.
Dallas Cowboys - The Redskins might not be a doormat, and the game is in Washington.
