Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Vikings vs. Seahawks

Points should be aplenty Sunday night, as the Seahawks are 7.0-point home favorites against the Vikings in a game with 57.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, the highest over/under of Week 5. It shouldn't be surprising, as the Seahawks are the second highest-scoring team in the NFL, while only three teams in the NFC have allowed more points than the Vikings. And while the Seahawks are a perfect 4-0, only seven teams in the NFC have allowed more points, and they've given up more than every other team in the NFC West by a decent margin (109, while the Cardinals have allowed 92, the Rams 80 and 49ers 71).

Lots of points means lots of fantasy points, but the key to this slate will be figuring out where the best use of salary goes, as the best players are obviously the most expensive.

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson ($13,000 DK, $16,500 FD) is simply on another level than anyone else in this game, as he's $2,800 more than the next highest-priced player on DraftKings and $1,500 more on FanDuel. The prices are completely justified, as he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (16) and came into Week 5 with the third-most passing yards (1,285). If you want to knock Wilson for anything, you can note he's only rushed for 95 yards on 18 attempts, but when you're passing for at least 315 yards in three of four games, and throwing five touchdowns in the game when you only throw for 288 yards, well, that's just something you'll have to deal with.

Wilson will absolutely be popular because of his stellar season, but using him as a captain on DraftKings really limits what else you can do because of the salary multiplier, which pushes his cost to $19,500, accounting for 39 percent of the cap, leaving an average of $6,100 per remaining slot. Yes, there will be plenty who still go down that road, but winning a tournament seems very unlikely when you're relying on Wilson to do everything and not have any of his receivers singularly go off.

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins ($9,600 DK, $14,500 FD) hasn't been nearly as good (in fairness, almost no one has), as he's topped out at 260 yards this season while throwing one or zero touchdowns in half of his four starts. The difficulty with expecting a lot out of Cousins is that the Vikings haven't shown a preference for letting him throw a lot, passing 25, 26, 26 and 22 times in four games, respectively, including three games when they scored at least 30 points (and lost two). You can try to make the case that the Vikings will finally have to make him air it out to keep pace with the Seahawks, but the counter-argument is that maybe they do all they can to milk the clock with their running game to keep Wilson off the field.

Seattle has allowed more passing yards than any other team this season, which isn't surprising given how many points they score, which forces other teams to try and keep up. Allowing 450, 397, 472 and 315 yards in their four games, respectively, using Cousins, especially in the captain/MVP spot, can't be ignored, at least for those trying to win bigger tournaments. Then again, those passing yards were allowed to quarterbacks who threw 54, 44, 57 and 45 passes, two of which are literally more than double the number of passes Cousins has thrown in a game. But it's not just volume, as the Seahawks 8.17 YPA allowed is the sixth-highest in the league, with the only positive for their defense that they've only allowed six passing touchdowns while also picking off six passes, the latter of which is one off the league-high.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Giving up a ton of passing yards obviously means you give up a lot of receiving yards, and Seattle comes in having allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the league by a wide margin; 70.0 fantasy points per game on DraftKings versus the next-highest team, the Cowboys, who are at 52.9. For reference, the 17.1-point difference between first and second is the same as between second and 19th. Focusing on the Vikings' pass catchers will immediately push us toward Adam Thielen ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD), who leads the team in targets (31), receptions (20), red-zone targets (four) and touchdowns (four), and he comes in with either a touchdown reception or more than 100 yards in three of four games. And it's not like Thielen is a basic possession receiver, as his 15.7 aDOT is the second-highest on the team and the eighth-highest in the league among players with at least 20 targets. Additionally, his 486 air yards were the second-most in the NFL through four weeks. For those who want a piece of the Vikings' passing game against the (statistically) worst passing defense in the league, Thielen is certainly a solid option.

That being said, he's a bit expensive on both sites and the recent emergence of Justin Jefferson ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD) gives us a viable alternative, especially because of the salary differences. After catching five of six targets for 70 yards in his first two games, Jefferson has absolutely exploded, with seven catches on nine targets for 175 yards and a touchdown against the Titans in Week 3 and then four catches on five targets for 103 yards last week at Houston. While he is second on the team in targets (20) and receptions (16), Jefferson leads them in receiving yards (348), though it's important to note that he hasn't been a downfield threat like Thielen or Bisi Johnson ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD), as 130 of his receiving yards came after the catch, which puts his 13.3 aDOT behind Johnson (17.2) and Thielen, and his 266 air yards are only more than Johnson's 155 because he's had 12 more targets. Consideration for Johnson really is based on whether you think he can get into the end zone (he's +900 to score anytime on DraftKings Sportsbook versus +100 for Thielen and +145 for Jefferson), which would be a bit of a surprise given he's been targeted just once in the past two games combined after catching four of seven targets for 80 yards in the first two games. Thielen obviously has the more consistent targets, but Jefferson is a very solid no. 2.

Tajae Sharpe ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Chad Beebe ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) are also on the depth chart, but it's really tough to see them doing anything offensively, if they're even active. Other than the main two wideouts, and to a lesser extent Johnson, you could try your touchdown luck with tight ends Kyle Rudolph ($4,600 DK, $8,500 FD) and Irv Smith ($200 DK, $6,000 FD), who have combined for eight catches on 14 targets for 80 yards, 8-6-66 specifically from Rudolph. Also working in Rudolph's favor is that he is the only player to get targeted inside the five-yard line this season (two), and he has one receiving touchdown, which is more than anyone else on the team other than Thielen and Jefferson (one).

The Seattle passing tree is a bit wider than Minnesota's, though it's dominated by DK Metcalf ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD) and Tyler Lockett ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD), the former of whom is the third-most expensive player on DraftKings but only seventh-most on FanDuel, while the latter is sixth on each site. It's a bit interesting that Lockett is more expensive on FanDuel since he gets more of his fantasy value from receptions, though both of them are elite. Metcalf leads the team in air yards (460), receiving yards (403) and aDOT (16.4), and he continues to be the big-play threat for Seattle. He has eclipsed 90 receiving yards in every game this season, scoring a touchdown in each of the first three, and he's gone over 105 yards in each of the past two. Lockett hasn't been nearly as prolific in terms of yards, twice going over 90 but failing to reach 70 twice, and while he leads the team with four touchdowns, three came in Week 3 against Dallas when he caught nine of 13 targets for 100 yards. In the other three games, he caught 17 of 20 targets for 198 yards and one score. And while he has a solid four red-zone targets, including three from inside the 10-yard and five-yard lines, three of those red-zone looks and two from in closer were in that Dallas game. Those who think Seattle romps but don't want to pay up for Wilson as a captain/MVP would surely be tempted by Metcalf or Lockett, so they'll definitely have some captain popularity too.

There has been decent production outside of Metcalf and Lockett, though narrowing down who to select isn't easy. David Moore ($6,200 DK, $9,000 FD) and Freddie Swain ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD) have been splitting the no. 3 wide receiver role, though Moore has been much more productive, including three catches on four targets for 95 yards and a touchdown last week at Miami, his second game with a touchdown this season. Jerry Donabedian noted in this week's Hidden Stat Line that Swain had a higher snap share than Moore (43 percent to 35), but it only resulted in two catches on three targets for 32 yards. Swain has caught a pass in every game this season, but last weekend was the first time he got more than one target. And while you might be tempted to try your luck on Swain given the salary difference between the two, Moore has gotten at least three (but no more than four) targets in three of four games, and his 10.4 aDOT indicates he's more likely to be part of a longer play than Swain's 4.0.

Tight end Greg Olsen ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) has been targeted more than any player other than Lockett and Metcalf, catching 14 of 18 for 120 yards and a touchdown, though his 122 air yards and 6.8 aDOT are pretty indicative of his role of a short-route option (like most tight ends). Olsen's five red-zone targets actually lead the team, with three inside the 10-yard line, which is important if you roster him because it's pretty much the only way he'll make an impact. He's been trending in the right direction, with 10 catches on 13 targets for 96 yards in the last two games, which is fine but uneventful. His upside doesn't match Moore's, and he's much more expensive than Swain, so he's probably not going to be that popular. Surely no one building a reasonable set of lineups will captain him either. Will Dissly ($600 DK, $6,500 FD) and Jacob Hollister ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) will get Olsen's tight end scraps, and the only way they'll be useful is with the ball in the end zone, which itself is really unlikely.

RUNNING BACKS

The reason the Vikings have been able to get by (or as much as a 1-3 team gets by) with Cousins throwing so few passes is because of Dalvin Cook ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD), the second most-expensive player on both sites. Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards (424), rushing touchdowns (six) and rushing yards per game (106.0), and his 75 carries through four weeks were the fourth-most, and only four players had more red-zone carries. There are always concerns that backup Alexander Mattison ($2,800 DK, $8,000 FD) could take away useful opportunities (i.e. red-zone or goal-line carries), but it seems they're more circumstantial than anything else. This is from Jerry's running back Hidden Stat Line this week:

• That make three straight weeks with Cook handling 74 percent or more of snaps. His receiving usage (2.8 targets per game) is down from last season, but so is Mattison's share of the rushing pie. Mattison averaged 8.5 carries per game over the first eight weeks of last season, and he's seen only 6.0 per game this year.
• Mattison vultured a TD from four yards out, after Cook rumbled for a gain of 15 one play prior. Cook has a 5-2 advantage for inside-the-5 carries this year, and he's converted three of them for TDs.

"Vultured" is the right word there because it's not like Mattison was specifically chosen over Cook from in close, it just happened after Cook broke off a somewhat long run. As noted at the end, Cook still has the clear edge inside the five-yard line, including touchdowns on three of his five attempts. If you're playing for a Vikings upset, playing Cook as a captain/MVP makes plenty of sense. Heck, we've even seen this season of a 1-5 build working where you captain/MVP someone from the losing team and fill out the flex plays with guys on the other, and that could make sense in this case with Cook. The biggest issue, of course, is that Cook is expensive, so you're unlikely to fill much else with Seahawks who actually matter. And if you're making 150 lineups, casually dropping C.J. Ham ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) into one or two isn't insane (it's also highly unlikely to be beneficial).

One Seahawks player who could have a big impact and won't be as popular as he should be is running back Chris Carson ($7,800 DK, $13,500 FD), who is much more affordable on DraftKings as the eighth most-expensive player, whereas he's the fourth-most on FanDuel, ahead of everyone except the quarterbacks and Cook. Backup Carlos Hyde ($2,200 DK, $7,500 FD) is questionable to play because of a shoulder injury, and he was unable to do any contact work during practice this week. That leaves Travis Homer ($1,200 DK, $6,000 FD) and DeeJay Dallas ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) to get any work not given to Carson, which tends to happen on obvious passing downs or two-minute drills. Homer is the guy over Dallas there anyway, and it's tough to make a case for either of them given that Carson has gotten every running back red-zone carry over the past three games. If anything, Hyde being out likely helps Carson more than Homer or Dallas.

Seattle's increase in passing this season obviously direct affects Carson, who hasn't gotten more than 17 carries in a game this season, though he has caught 15 of 16 targets for 113 yards and three touchdowns. With so much attention on Wilson, Metcalf and Lockett, Carson seems like an ideal player to use as a differential captain/MVP, not only because he doesn't share fantasy points on any rushing attempts but he's cheaper than the main passing/receiving players.

KICKERS

A game with so many expected points likely won't lead many to want to roster either Jason Myers ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) or Dan Bailey ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) because the upside is in touchdowns and not field goals. Neither kicker has reached double-digit fantasy points in a game this season, and while they presumably bring some kind of fantasy floor, you likely have to roster them instead of maybe one of the tight ends or defenses (on DraftKings), unless you want to try your luck on one of the backup wide receivers or running backs. 

The contrarian move is certainly to play as if there won't be that many points scored, or at least not many touchdowns, which would make both kickers interesting options if the teams can move the ball well but just not into the end zone. They still probably don't fit into an optimal build for how the game is likely to play out, but players who like contrarian builds should consider them.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Similarly to the kickers, with a lot of points expected to be scored it's unlikely that the defenses are that popular on DraftKings. They do offer some kind of upside that the kickers don't, with the Seahawks ($3,600 DK) coming in with eight turnovers and a safety in the last four games, and they're facing a quarterback with the second-most interceptions and who has been sacked 10 times already. One of the players who has been sacked more than Cousins is Wilson, which could make some, at least for a second, consider the Vikings defense ($3,000 DK), but more importantly they only have three turnovers this season and Wilson has just two interceptions (and 103 completions) on his 137 pass attempts.

One way to get multiple elite Seahawks is to use their defense as a captain on DraftKings, but it doesn't seem like a great use of funds given the defense/special teams upside isn't remotely close to what Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett or Carson could put up. Then again, it probably only makes one defensive or special teams touchdown to make it work beautifully.