Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Sunday will feel very differently this week because the nationally televised night game is also included on FanDuel and DraftKings' main slates due to the late TV flex. There's a healthy 54.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with the Seahawks 3.5-point road favorites. Seattle is one of three teams in the NFL that are undefeated through six weeks, and the only one in the NFC, sitting two games above the 4-2 Cardinals in the NFC West. Both teams love to score points, with the Seahawks' 169 the second-most in the conference heading into Week 7 and the Cardinals the third-most.

While we're expecting a lot of points, fantasy players will have to take firm stands on how they think it'll play out and then pick sides because there's simply no way to afford enough of the players we actually want in a single lineup. That doesn't mean only people who make 150 lineups will be able to come up with the right combination, but we need to get creative with our builds.

QUARTERBACKS

Both quarterbacks in this game are very expensive, with Russell Wilson ($12,800 DK, $16,500 FD) the highest-priced player on DraftKings, while he's tied with Kyler Murray ($12,000 DK, $16,500) on FanDuel. They are the obvious places to start any lineup in a game that's expected to have a lot of points, but taking both of them on FanDuel accounts for 45.0 percent of the salary cap, while they cost 49.6 percent as flex plays on DraftKings. Want to use Murray as captain and Wilson in the flex? That will use up 61.6 percent of your cap, while a Wilson captain brings you to 62.4 percent, leaving an average remaining salary of $4,700 for the remaining four flex spots. Sure, it's doable, but you need a lot of hope that they account for pretty much everything while your flex plays do enough to make it worth it.

Wilson leads the league with 19 passing touchdowns this season, he's second in completion percentage (72.8), first in YPA (8.9) and seventh in quarterback rushing yards (153). He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game, including three with at least four, helped by being fifth in the NFL in passes inside the 10-yard line. However, he is now up against a Cardinals defense that hasn't allowed a 300-yard passer this season, and only half of the six quarterbacks they've faced have thrown for multiple touchdowns. Then again, Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, (270 yards and two TDs), Teddy Bridgewater (276 yards and two TDs plus a rushing score), Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton aren't exactly lighting up the fantasy scoreboards. Matchup-wise, we shouldn't have to worry about it for Wilson.

From a fantasy-point perspective, no quarterback has scored more than Murray, with a big chunk coming from his league-high 370 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. But his rushing yards aren't the only way he's scoring, as he's 10th in the NFL in passing attempts because of the Cardinals' fast-paced offense, helping him to three multi-passing-touchdown games in his past four. And those six rushing touchdowns have been spread out, as only once did he fail to rush for a score, and that was in Week 4 against Carolina when he only threw for 133 yards but three passing touchdowns (and he rushed for 78 yards). He now faces a Seahawks defense that has been atrocious against the pass, allowing at least 315 passing yards in all but one game, including three games with over 395. They actually haven't allowed a ton of passing touchdowns (eight), but there are fantasy points to be had.

As mentioned earlier, rostering both Wilson and Murray will eat up a ton of salary space, especially with one of them as a captain on DraftKings because of the salary multiplier, so it might be best to take a stand on one of them and build your lineup from there. Or, if you can save money with a captain, getting both is at least a tad easier and you have to hope your multiplier gets there.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

A ton of passing yards naturally means we have to think about the pass catchers, right? The two teams have somewhat narrow target trees despite all the attempts, with the Cardinals heavily relying on DeAndre Hopkins ($10,800 DK, $14,500 FD), who leads the league in receiving yards (601) and receptions (47) while being third in targets (61). However, so many of his targets are low-yardage attempts, as his 473 air yards are the 22nd-most in the NFL and his 7.8 aDOT is the fifth-highest on the team. However, given how many receiving yards the Seahawks allow, Hopkins should be plenty popular, especially because he makes a ton of sense whether you think the Cardinals win or lose.

To emphasize Hopkins' usage, he has more than twice as many targets as the next-highest player on the team (29), Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600 DK, $7,000 FD), who is also second on the team in receptions (21). And if you thought Hopkins' aDOT was low, Fitzgerald has only 155 air yards, leading to a 5.3 aDOT, the lowest on the team among their wide receivers. It's really tough to get excited about Fitzgerald given how limited his opportunities for touchdowns are, though I guess that makes him a bit of a differential for those who want to go that route. If anything, fantasy players seem better off looking at Christian Kirk ($6,400 DK, $11,000 FD) and/or Andy Isabella ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD), the two-highest aDOT players on the team. The biggest difference between them is volume, as Kirk has 13 receptions on 24 targets for 240 yards (353 air yards for a 15.3 aDOT), while Isabella has 10 catches on 14 targets for 147 yards (246 air yards for a 16.4 aDOT). Kirk is likely to be more popular because he's simply used more, but Isabella should be in consideration because he can make a big play happen if he actually gets some targets. Unfortunately, he had only three, three and two in his last three games, respectively, while Kirk had five, seven and three in that span, one that included three touchdowns (two last week against Dallas on his only two catches).

The constant use of the wide receivers and running backs (we'll get to them shortly) has left very little for the tight ends, so it's tough to give much consideration to Darrell Daniels ($2,400 DK, $5,000 FD), who has moved ahead of Dan Arnold ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD) on the depth chart. The two combined for one target last week (Daniels caught it for one yard), and they've combined for one red-zone target this season (Arnold got it in Week 4). It's tough to get excited about either player, but theoretically they could be in the player pool for those making a ton of lineups.

The Seahawks' pass-catching tree is pretty top-heavy too, though it has two guys at the top instead of just one. DK Metcalf ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD) leads the team with 39 targets this season, but Tyler Lockett ($8,200 DK, $12,000 FD) is only one behind. Despite the target lead, Metcalf has caught only 22 passes versus Lockett's 30, but the way the Seahawks use them is the reason why, as Lockett tends to run shorter routes that are easier to complete, as Metcalf's 641 air yards (the fifth-most in the league despite every receiver ahead of him playing one more game) have led to a team-high 16.4 aDOT, while Lockett's 349 have equated to a 9.2 aDOT. Metcalf also leads in touchdowns (five to four) and receiving yards (496 versus 342 for Lockett), which is simply why he's more expensive on both sites. Metcalf would be much more popular if they were the same price, and while he will probably still be more so because of the big-play upside, the difference won't be as big because of Lockett's salary savings.

Anyone after those two feels like it comes with more hope than anything else, as tight end Greg Olsen ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD) is fourth on the team in targets (19), catching 15 for 140 yards, while No. 3 wide receiver David Moore ($5,400 DK, $9,000 FD) is very touchdown dependent, even if he scored in Weeks 2 and 4. Unfortunately, his biggest game was in Week 4 when he had four targets, catching three for 95 yards and a score, which is basically the best-case scenario when rostering him because he simply won't get a lot of targets as long as Lockett and Metcalf are healthy. The benefit of Moore is that he can do more with his limited targets, as Greg Olsen's 7.2 aDOT requires him to get into the end zone to make much noise, while Moore's 13.1 shows he won't need as many opportunities to make a splash. Freddie Swain ($800 DK, $6,500 FD) is the only other wide receiver to be targeted this season, but he is just not playing enough to be a great option for those who make a limited number of lineups. And while you might be tempted by backup tight end Will Dissly ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD) because he caught a touchdown last week and has caught every pass thrown to him this season, eight catches on eight targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in five games doesn't really provide much optimism for a helpful game Sunday night.

Hopkins, Metcalf and (probably to a lesser extent) Lockett could be popular captain/MVP plays because they are a bit cheaper than the quarterbacks but could still have monster games. That being said, they certainly aren't cheap, and you're likely to see people take one of them instead of the opposing quarterback if you correlate with their QBs. However, there is surely a path where Hopkins has a huge game and you play Wilson on the other side because he spreads the ball around more, so while we're usually pretty interested in correlating our quarterbacks and pass catchers, you can make a viable case for the opposite on this slate, more so with Hopkins.

RUNNING BACKS

The easiest way to get access to these high-octane offense in a differential way is to focus on their running backs. The one difficulty is on the Arizona side because while Kenyan Drake ($7,000 DK, $14,500 FD) dominates the carries, Chase Edmonds ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) gets most of the passing work. In fact, Edmonds has the third-most targets (25) and receptions (19) on the team, a far cry from Drake's six catches on eight targets for 22 yards this season. However, we get the opposite in terms of rushing attempts, with Drake leading the team with 105 carries for 478 yards and 19 red-zone carries. Murray also poaches enough inside the 10 that we can't expect Drake to get all the close work, but he hasn't lost much to Edmonds. Drake is also coming off a huge game when he rushed 20 times for 164 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas, but statistically he has a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Then again, when you're giving up loads of passing yards, looking good against the run is bound to happen.

The Seahawks' backfield is dominated by Chris Carson ($9,000 DK, $13,500 FD), who not only leads the team in rushing attempts (61), rushing yards (289), rushing touchdowns (three) and red-zone carries (10), he's also third in targets (23) and receptions (21), while only Metcalf and Lockett have more than his three receiving touchdowns. The difficulty is that he just doesn't get a ton of rushing volume, topping out at 17 carries back in Week 2, and he had only eight carries for 52 yards in their last game against Minnesota while making up a bit of it by catching six of seven targets for 27 yards. The positive is that he's not really losing many opportunities to Carlos Hyde ($1,600 DK, $7,500 FD), who is back after missing two games with a shoulder injury, or Travis Homer ($600 DK, $6,000 FD), who isn't likely to get many opportunities now that Hyde is back. Hyde theoretically makes sense in case of a Carson injury, but you're relying on Seattle running the ball a lot more than usual without their top running back. Ultimately, Carson is the best differential from the Seattle passing game if you still want to focus on the Seahawks, while the same applies to Drake for the Cardinals.

KICKERS

High-total games don't usually have people clamoring for kickers, and that's probably going to be the case again Sunday night. Their floors are usually more reliable, but Jason Myers ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) and Zane Gonzalez ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) actually have Edmonds in between them on DraftKings, salary-wise, and it seems more people are likely to go with the running back, particularly because of the full point per reception there. And for upside, Isabella is cheaper than both, along with guys like Daniels and Hyde. Both kickers have had floors around seven fantasy poinst, so if you think Edmonds does too, then taking his upside makes more sense. They're actually similarly priced with Edmonds, Hyde and Isabella on FanDuel too, though their floors aren't as high because of the decrease in reception value.

From a differential standpoint, both kickers make sense if the game ends up being low scoring, so they shouldn't be excluded from player pools set up for large-field GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Similar to the kickers being differentials in a game with a high total, the defenses fit into that category as well. While the Seahawks ($3,600 DK) have been giving up lots of yards, they've also been getting turnovers, so it's not like they can't be useful for fantasy players. Meanwhile, the Cardinals ($3,400 DK) are coming off a solid game with four turnovers and three sacks. In fact, they've had at least three sacks in all but one game this season, and Wilson has been sacked more than all but five quarterbacks in the league, and each one ahead of him has played one more game. It's probably not going to work, but a Cardinals defense captain on DraftKings certainly opens up salary for the flex positions, and it's possible they do well even with the game having a ton of points if they can get in on the scoring.