Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Ravens vs. Patriots

No team has allowed fewer points than the Ravens' 142 this season, and only the Jets and Football Team have scored fewer points than the Patriots, which gives us a fairly low 43.5-point total for Sunday's night's game, one in which the Ravens are 7.0-point road favorites. Baltimore has disappointed a bit this season, though they still come in 6-2, losing only to the Chiefs and Steelers, while the Patriots have lost four of their last five, with their lone win coming against the winless Jets last week on a last-second field goal.

QUARTERBACKS

The quarterbacks in this game are pretty similar in many respects, particularly in how much of their respective teams' running games go through them. Lamar Jackson ($12,400 DK, $16,500 FD) has the second-most rushing yards (469) among quarterbacks in the league this season, while Cam Newton ($10,800 DK, $17,000 FD) is fourth (314), and no player at their position has more rushing touchdowns than Newton's eight. Newton has been more prolific scoring on the ground, but Jackson has been a significantly more productive passer, throwing 12 touchdowns passes versus four interceptions while Newton has two and seven, respectively.

Consideration for either quarterback comes down to their solid rushing floors and then the upside of their passing yards. Even though he has many more passing touchdowns than Newton, it's not like Jackson has been lighting up the league like he did last year, as 18 quarterbacks have thrown for more touchdowns. Additionally, he's passed for over 210 yards just once, which was in Week 1 against Cleveland when he completed 20-of-25 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns while adding 45 rushing yards on seven carries, so it's tough to get overly excited about his passing upside since we just really haven't seen it this season. It also doesn't help that he's facing a Patriots defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, including the third-fewest passing yards.

The matchup for Newton is theoretically better, as the Ravens have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and while they allowed three to throw for at least 275 yards, it's the same number they've held under 200. Newton has thrown for more than 175 yards just twice this season -- 397 against Seattle in Week 2 and 274 against the Jets last week -- and there aren't many reasons to think he's going to break out in terms of passing yards Sunday night.

Both quarterbacks leads their teams in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns (Jackson is tied), so it's certainly possible to play them as captains/MVPs and not necessarily need to use their pass catchers, especially in a game that might not have many points, though that actually puts a priority on the touchdown scorers because there aren't likely to be a plethora of yards to make up for missing out on those guys.

RUNNING BACKS

Jackson and Newton leading their teams in rushing attempts is pretty frustrating when you consider that each basically uses a committee. So, not only do we have to figure out which running backs to potentially target, we also have to realize that the quarterbacks may be more likely to score when they're in close. In fact, Jackson (+125) and Newton (+145) have the highest any time touchdown odds in the game, with Baltimore's J.K. Dobbins ($8,400 DK, $10,500 FD) the highest among the running backs for both teams. Dobbins has gotten an increase in work over the past two games, though he's actually not getting any more opportunities than Gus Edwards ($2,400 DK, $10,000 FD). Here's Jerry Donabedian's breakdown of last week's game from the latest Hidden Stat Line:

Player	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
J.K. Dobbins	56%	12	2	8.7%	18	.62	12-30-0 — 2-5-0
Gus Edwards	38%	11	2	8.7%	7	.24	11-23-1 — 2-11-0

• Justice Hill played three snaps without any targets or carries. He has five snaps but no touches in two games with Mark Ingram (ankle) out of the lineup.
• Edwards was the starter, and he also took each of the four snaps in goal-to-go situations, all of which were carries for him and all of which occurred in the second half. The first of the four was a four-yard loss and a lost fumble, but the Ravens came right back to Edwards for three consecutive goal-line carries (the last being a TD) on the very next drive. Persistence!
• Edwards and Dobbins shared clock-killing work in the fourth quarter when Baltimore led by multiple scores. Edwards took three straight carries on one drive, and Dobbins got three in a row on the next (the play-calling was a little bland).
• Dobbins played three of seven snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long, with Hill getting two and Edwards none. The Ravens used 10 personnel (one TE, four WRs) on two of those seven plays.
• With Ingram out the past two weeks, Dobbins has a 90-50 snap advantage over Edwards, but the carries are tied at 27, and Dobbins only has a 4-3 edge in targets. Plus, Edwards has played six of seven snaps inside the 5-yard line, scoring two TDs on five carries in that area.

So, we're basically left with Dobbins playing more snaps but Edwards getting just as many opportunities when Mark Ingram ($7,000 DK, $10,000 FD) was out with an ankle injury. However, Ingram practiced fully Friday is expected to play Sunday night, which only muddies the situation. Ingram and Edwards are both +300 to score any time, which isn't great but also not that much of a long shot. It's terrible to hear, but there's no clear path to picking one of these guys, though Edwards obviously provides the most salary relief. Even the team's rushing attempts trends doesn't seem to help that much:

Edwards and Ingram both have 10 red-zone carries this season, which is half as many as Jackson, though Edwards has a commanding lead with six inside the five-yard line, while Ingram and Dobbins each have two. Theoretically that could  give Edwards a bit of a push, especially since he comes in with 25 more carries than Ingram and 22 more than Dobbins this season, though all of the confusion just likely pushes more fantasy players to just pay up for Jackson, even as a captain/MVP.

The Patriots don't make it any easier, especially because Damien Harris ($8,800 DK, $13,500 FD), who started each of the past five games and has more carries than any Patriot not-named Newton, is questionable to play because of chest and ankle injuries. Harris averaged 13.3 carries for 77.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns over the past three games, but he had to leave last week's early due to the injuries. The Patriots are not short on backups, as Rex Burkhead ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) led the running backs in snap share last week (43 percent), and he was the only one to score a touchdown, rushing 12 times for 56 yards and catching all three of his targets for 11 yards on nine routes.

Speaking of routes, James White ($6,200 DK, $10,500 FD) is second on the team with 25 receptions this season, though with only four carries in the past two games, you could probably consider him more of a wide receivers who gets a few rushing attempts than a running back who catches passes. And as if that wasn't complicated enough, the Patriots could activate Sony Michel ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD) from injured reserve after recovering from a quad injury and COVID-19. Michel hasn't played since Week 3 when he rushed nine times for 117 yards and caught both of his targets for 23 receiving yards, and he presumably could slot right into Harris' spot if he is activated and Harris is held out. Then again, the Patriots aren't afraid of using Burkhead, who leads the team's running backs in red-zone carries (12), more than double Harris and Michel. Of course, he's had just over half the opportunities as Newton, who has taken 12 of their 18 carries inside the five-yard line, which similarly to the Ravens means most fantasy players will just try to jam Newton in there and hope he does all the important running work himself.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

It's tough to get fired up about the pass catchers playing with the quarterbacks who have thrown the 25th-most (Jackson) and 28th-most (Newton) passes this season, but we've got roster spots to fill! The busiest one recently, by far, is New England's Jakobi Meyers ($9,600 DK, $11,000 FD), who was targeted 24 times in the past two weeks, including a monster game Monday against the Jets when he caught 12 of 14 targets for 169 yards on 36 routes. In fact, over the past three weeks, Meyers has a 38 percent target share, 18 percentage points higher than the next wideout, Damiere Byrd ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD). Amazingly, Gunner Olszewski ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) is the only other active wide receiver to be targeted in the past three games, and he had one target last week and none in the other games.

Tight end Ryan Izzo ($800 DK, $5,500 FD) sits atop the depth chart and has more targets than any other Patriot at his position, but he also has just nine catches on 15 targets for 114 yards this season, and he's questionable to play because of a hamstring injury. His usage is similar to that of fullback Jakob Johnson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who caught both of his targets last week and tied his season high with six receiving yards. Needless to say, he's not going to be in many people's player pools, and it's tough to make a decent case for Izzo other than the fact that he starts and no one will have him.

And because we can't have this be an easy situation, the Patriots are expected to get N'Keal Harry ($3,200 DK, $10,000 FD) back from a concussion that cost him the last two games. Harry was one of Newton's favorite receivers early in the season, though he had just two targets and no catches in Week 6 and played just 11 snaps in Week 7 before suffering the head injury. Harry is more of a short-route runner, as his 6.3 aDOT indicates, which is much shorter than Meyers' 12.5 and Byrd's 12.2. Given Meyers' recent success, it wouldn't be surprising to see some people use him as captain/MVP, which works more for those who are a bit more contrarian because you're going against that both teams really like to run the ball. Any other Patriots' pass catcher seems like a strategy for those who make a ton of lineups.

Marquise Brown ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD) has been Jackson's favorite receiver this season, as he leads the team in targets (49), receptions (30), receiving yards (417), air yards (719) and aDOT (15.0), but it's not like that says a lot when his targets are fewer than 44 other players in the NFL. After catching five of six targets for 101 yards in Week 1, Brown has broken the 80-yard mark just once since (Week 4 against Washington), and he's been barely used in the past two games, catching four of seven targets for 41 yards. If you want a positive, his only catch in Week 8 against Pittsburgh was a three-yard touchdown, but you obviously have to recognize the negative that he only caught one of two targets. Brown consistently leads, or co-leads, the team in targets each week, but it's tough to get very optimistic when that has led to just one double-digit target game:

Brown may be the most active overall, but tight end Mark Andrews ($7,600 DK, $12,500 FD) has been the receiver Jackson looks to when they're in the red zone, as his 10 targets inside the 20 are seven more than the next highest Raven. If you want another positive for Brown, he leads the team in targets inside the five-yard line, but he has only two touchdowns this season versus Andrews' five. Andrews is still likely to be popular for those who want a piece of the Ravens' passing attack because he's the most likely touchdown receiver, and if you just want to play the touchdown game, backup tight end Nick Boyle ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD) has the same anytime touchdown odds as Ingram, Edwards, Meyers and Harris (+300).

Pretty much anyone else is a real hit-or-miss option, even though Willie Snead ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) has been getting some looks recently, and Miles Boykin ($1,200 DK, $7,000 FD) is around. Snead has seen his workload increase recently, catching nine of 11 targets for 143 yards in the past two games, including 105 against the Steelers in Week 8, which could make us forget that he failed to get more than three targets five straight games. Boykin also hasn't had more than two catches in a game since Week 2, while Devin Duvernay ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) looked like he was coming on until he didn't get a single target on 26 offensive snaps last week against the Colts. Duvernay is their primary kick returner, so he has a bit more touchdown potential than guys who rely on targets, but the floor is awfully low. At the very least, if you roster Duvernay, who scored a kick return touchdown in Week 3 against Kansas City, pairing him with the Ravens' defense/special teams is a perfect correlation because you'll basically get a double touchdown (and if you're wondering, Olszewski has been the Patriots' primary returner, but he doesn't have nearly the speed as Duvernay, averaging 24.1 yards per kickoff return versus the latter's 31.8).

Brown and Andrews are likely to be the only Ravens pass catchers to garner much captain/MVP consideration, at least among those who only enter a few lineups. However, you're going to need them to get into the end zone because they so rarely pay off in a big way with only catches and yards because the Ravens just don't play in a way that leads to a high volume of receiving stats.

KICKERS

A relatively low-scoring game will surely have fantasy players considering kickers, especially in cash games. The Ravens' Justin Tucker ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) had his lowest-scoring game of the season last week against the Colts, but at 7.0 fantasy points, it's clear he's been a very solid cash-game option all year. Nick Folk ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) hasn't been quite as consistent as Tucker, but he's dipped below 6.0 fantasy points only twice this season, and none were in the last four games.

Consideration for either kicker -- and Tucker seems much more likely be the more popular of the two -- is all about the whether their floors are strong enough versus the upside potential of players like Byrd, Harry, Snead and Edwards. From a volume perspective it's unlikely, though we have to recognize that with skill players, and particularly wide receivers, one big play could get them more than enough points to outscore a kicker, who needs at least five opportunities to put up a worthwhile score for tournaments.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Given Newton's struggles throwing the ball this season, plus their solid special teams, the Ravens ($5,400 DK) could be an interesting play in a presumably low-scoring game. They've already scored four touchdowns, including one in two of the past four games, and they've actually provided a pretty decent floor this from turnovers or sacks. Meanwhile, the Patriots ($3,000 DK) had just one sack in each of the past three games but are facing a quarterback who has been sacked more than all but six players in the league. However, with so few pass attempts, Jackson doesn't provide many interception opportunities, which is why it's not surprising he's only thrown four all season.

The Patriots DST isn't likely to be popular at all, but given the variance of the position, they should theoretically be in the player pool for those who don't make a ton of lineups, and they're certainly a more contrarian play because why would you play the defense for a 7.0-point home underdog? The answer: because no one else is.