This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is back for the Dolphins, who desperately awaited his return while Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater struggled in his absence. Returning for a home game will hopefully allow Tagovailoa to hit the ground running, but the Steelers managed to upset the heavily favored Buccaneers last week and should not be taken lightly. Or rather, Mike Tomlin is never to be taken lightly, even if his team is at an obvious talent disadvantage. The Dolphins are favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Tua Tagovailoa ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) is the big story of this game as he attempts to return from his frightening concussion saga. There's some risk in a player returning from injury, especially one that can weigh so heavily psychologically, and the Steelers did not treat Tom Brady kindly in Week 6. With that said, the Steelers pass defense has generally been weak on the year, and they tend to get exposed if the pass rush can't rattle the quarterback. Coach Mike McDaniel seems to have a good sense for the game, so hopefully he can cook up some good quick-release looks for Tagovailoa to reestablish his rhythm and give his receivers the chance to run after the catch.
Kenny Pickett ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) is returning from his own concussion, though thankfully from much less worrying circumstances than what Tagovailoa does. Pickett's issue is that he's been turnover-prone and even many of his good plays have been only narrowly executed. With
Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is back for the Dolphins, who desperately awaited his return while Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater struggled in his absence. Returning for a home game will hopefully allow Tagovailoa to hit the ground running, but the Steelers managed to upset the heavily favored Buccaneers last week and should not be taken lightly. Or rather, Mike Tomlin is never to be taken lightly, even if his team is at an obvious talent disadvantage. The Dolphins are favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Tua Tagovailoa ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) is the big story of this game as he attempts to return from his frightening concussion saga. There's some risk in a player returning from injury, especially one that can weigh so heavily psychologically, and the Steelers did not treat Tom Brady kindly in Week 6. With that said, the Steelers pass defense has generally been weak on the year, and they tend to get exposed if the pass rush can't rattle the quarterback. Coach Mike McDaniel seems to have a good sense for the game, so hopefully he can cook up some good quick-release looks for Tagovailoa to reestablish his rhythm and give his receivers the chance to run after the catch.
Kenny Pickett ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) is returning from his own concussion, though thankfully from much less worrying circumstances than what Tagovailoa does. Pickett's issue is that he's been turnover-prone and even many of his good plays have been only narrowly executed. With that said, the Dolphins defense has been weak against the pass all year and it's not obvious why that should change anytime soon, especially as long as corner Byron Jones is out. Pickett needs to be careful around Xavien Howard, one of the most prolific ballhawks in the league, but these Pittsburgh receivers have the advantage in this setting. Pickett has a lot of help.
RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris ($8200 DK, $13000 FD) might not be entirely himself after suffering a foot injury in training camp, but the steel plate removed from his foot recently might have been holding him back. Hopefully he improves as the year goes on, but in this game he gets another tough matchup against a Dolphins defense that has held opposing runners to 3.7 yards per carry. Harris might find production easier as a receiver, where the Dolphins have conceded 7.5 yards per target at an 80 percent catch rate – basically freebie production to this point. Jaylen Warren ($2800 DK, $6000 FD) might take any production Harris doesn't, though Warren is expected to play about 1/3 of the snap to Harris' 2/3.
Raheem Mostert ($7800 DK, $10500 FD) has seemingly shaken his knee issue, and with that he plausibly projects as a near-workhorse for the Dolphins, or as close to a workhorse as someone on his light frame can be. If there is any running to be done, Mostert appears to be Miami's first and second choice, because Chase Edmonds ($6200 DK, $7500 FD) saw only two carries on his 28 snaps in Week 6. Edmonds has some ability as a receiver and could make an impact in that capacity, but his dependency on that type of production probably makes him a little more tolerable on DraftKings than in FanDuel's 0.5PPR scoring. The Dolphins are heavily favored, so the assumption is their backfield will offer production of some sort. Mostert is the bet on the ground, Edmonds through the air. It's not clear whether McDaniel intends to use either of Myles Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed. Fullback Alec Ingold ($600 DK, $5500 FD) is a long shot to do anything from scrimmage, but he does play about 20 snaps per game and does pop up with the football on occasion.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
This is where the meat of the slate is. Both team have at least three compelling pass catcher considerations.
The Steelers are particularly loaded with all of Diontae Johnson ($8000 DK, $11500 FD), Chase Claypool ($6600 DK, $10000 FD), George Pickens ($6400 DK, $8500 FD) and even tight end Pat Freiermuth ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) possessing the ability to post big games, though of course not all at once. Guessing the right lineup in this slate could come down to correctly guessing who gets left out, and it's not easy to do. All four players are fully capable, so the question of who gets pinched could come down to random occurrences, or at least things outside of their control. The Dolphins have questionable cornerback depth and are dealing with injuries there, so Pittsburgh's varied and deep pass catcher rotation could spring leaks at multiple points of the Dolphins defense. Miami has been generous to tight ends, too, conceding 7.1 yards per target at an 81.8 percent catch rate. Hulking TE2 Zach Gentry ($3200 DK, $6500 FD) is a legitimate punt consideration, though it's unclear if his role might be affected by the emergence of rookie TE/FB tweener Connor Heyward ($2200 DK, $6000 FD).
Tyreek Hill ($11200 DK, $16000 FD) is the headliner for the Dolphins, especially if Jaylen Waddle ($9600 DK, $12500 FD), especially if Waddle is truly limited by his shoulder issue. The Steelers are dependent on zone coverage due to their moneyball approach with corner personnel, so to deal with these receivers effectively they'll need to make open field tackles off the pounce, because they have no prayer of actually mirroring the routes of Hill or Waddle. Cedrick Wilson ($200 DK, $7000 FD) was a notable free agent pickup for the Dolphins but he appears to be well behind Trent Sherfield ($4600 DK, $7500 FD) on the depth chart. Sherfield's production might appear bad at a glance, but that might be due to most of his playing time occurring while Tagovailoa was injured. Mike Gesicki ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) is on a roll after catching two touchdown passes in Week 6, but it's difficult to tell how reliable his playing time and usage might be – last week was only the second he played more than 40 snaps, and three times he's played fewer than 30. Durham Smythe ($1200 DK, $5500 FD) is normally the lead tight end in Miami, but he's questionable and mostly a blocker even when healthy. Hunter Long ($200 DK, $5000 FD) might pick up Smythe's blocking snaps if Smythe is out again.
KICKERS
Both of the kickers in this game have done well in the past but are uncharacteristically struggling early in 2022. Normally reliable from long range, Jason Sanders ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) has missed all three of his field goals from 50 or more in 2022, so perhaps he is due for some better luck as soon as this game. Chris Boswell ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is as good as ever from long range, knocking down five of six so far this year, and with three seasons in a row of 90 percent or more of his field goals made you'd think/hope he's due for a hitting streak with 11 of 15 field goals landed through six games.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Steelers ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) defense can never be counted out as long as Tomlin is their coach, and in Week 6 they provided a jarring reminder of that fact by abusing Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense. It was certainly an overachievement, though, and regression to the mean almost always occurs eventually. A road game against wide receivers like these isn't easy on any defense. The Dolphins ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) are favored by more than a touchdown, and part of the reason why is that Pickett is a turnover machine who probably won't last long in the NFL as a starter.
