Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Eagles vs. 49ers

There were seven games with totals over 50.0 in the NFL as of Sunday morning, but the night's nationally televised game between the Eagles and 49ers is not one of them, with San Francisco 7.5-point home favorites in a game with a 45.0-point total. Philadelphia has yet to win a game through three weeks, losing to Football Team 27-17 in Week 1, the Rams 37-19 in Week 2 and then they tied the Bengals 23-23 in Week 3. Meanwhile, the injury-decimated 49ers come in 2-1, losing to the Cardinals 24-20 in their opener and then annihilating both New York teams, first the Jets 31-13 and then the Giants 36-9. 

It goes to show just how much people think the 49ers are better than the Eagles, as they are favored by more than a touchdown despite missing Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Tevin Coleman, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Jordan Reed and Richard Sherman, among a string of others. That being said, the Eagles have plenty of injury issues of their own, as they'll be without Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Marquise Goodwin, Jason Peters, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert, while J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is doubtful.

QUARTERBACKS

How bad has it gotten for Carson Wentz ($10,400 DK, $14,500 FD)? He's cheaper than Nick Mullens ($9,800 DK, $15,000 FD) on FanDuel, though he is at least ahead on DraftKings. Days after coach Doug Pederson said he wouldn't bench Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts, Wentz surely needs to play well to solidify the job he's had comfortably since Nick Foles left for the Jaguars in March 2019. He surpassed 250 passing yards once this season, which was Week 1 against Washington when he had 270, and he's thrown two interceptions in each game. His 65 rushing yards last week surely helped salvage his fantasy day, but he simply doesn't run consistently enough to rely on that high of a total (his rushing prop on FanDuel is 15.5). Not only is the rushing prop not that high, his passing yards prop is only 230.5, and he's -172 to throw under 1.5 touchdowns versus +134 for the over. In essence, the expectations are fairly low for Wentz, even in a game he's likely to be trailing in and forced to throw.

Mullens will get another start for the injured Garoppolo after completing 25-of-36 passes for 343 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. The Eagles defense is better, but Kyle Shanahan seems to trust his new quarterback, especially after they rushed only 35 times against the Giants, including four for Mullens. The matchup seems to work out in his favor as well, as the Eagles pretty much shut down Dwayne Haskins in Week 1 but allowed at least 265 yards and multiple passing touchdowns to Jared Goff and Joe Burrow the following weeks. In terms of his player props on FanDuel, Mullens' passing yardage number is 263.5 and he's -160 for over 1.5 touchdowns (+124 for under).

Both quarterbacks figure to be popular plays because quarterbacks are always popular, with contrarian players likely using Wentz more as a differential captain/MVP. The difficulty is that there are other players in the game who seem more likely to have bigger fantasy performances, and they're cheaper, as the salary multiplier on DraftKings makes Wentz $15,600 and Mullens $14,700. Overall, you could theoretically get them at a lower draft percentage than you normally would for quarterbacks, but there are legitimate reasons why they're lower.

RUNNING BACKS

One of the reasons many will fade Wentz, at least in the captain/MVP spot, is because of Miles Sanders ($9,200 DK, $14,000 FD), who has been the Eagles' only consistent player this season, which really says something since he missed Week 1 due to injury. Since then, he's rushed for 95 yards in each game while also catching seven of 15 targets for 48 receiving yards. He has gotten 38 of the team's 48 rushing attempts in the past two games, and only two active players on the team have more targets (again, he didn't play in Week 1). The difficulty with Sanders is that he's facing a solid 49ers defense, even if they are dealing with a ton of injuries. It's tough to be impressed by the fact that San Francisco has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season since they played both New York teams, but they did hold the Cardinals' running backs to 86 yards on 22 carries in Week 1.

The benefit of Sanders is that we know he'll get almost all of the Eagles' backfield work, as Boston Scott ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) and Corey Clement ($1,000, $5,000 FD) are just not getting much work; not on clear passing downs and not in the red zone or near the goal line. However, we can't forget that Sanders is playing for a 7.5-point road underdog, so you can question how many rushing attempts he'll get, particularly if they fall behind early, but at least his work in the passing game helps mitigate some of that. Additionally, if you think they cover the spread and build toward a solid Eagles' win, Sanders makes a ton of sense, particularly as captain/MVP.

The 49ers' backfield couldn't be much different, as Jerick McKinnon ($8,200 DK, $12,000 FD) and Jeff Wilson ($7,000 DK, $11,000 FD) appear to be splitting the opportunities there, with McKinnon rushing 14 times versus 12 for Wilson last week, with the former finding the end zone once and the latter twice, including one through the air. However, Jerry Donabedian explains in this week's Hidden Stat Line that McKinnon had 82 percent of the running back snaps, all of their targets and 68 percent of their carries, including seven of eight on third-and-medium/long, before the fourth quarter. Third-stringer JaMycal Hasty (not on DraftKings, $7,000 FD) got all three of his touches in the last 10 minutes of a blowout, so there's little reason to think he's going to play a significant-enough role Sunday night. Stealing a bit more, "Wilson got the lone goal-line carry, scoring from two yards out with 3:35 left in the game. His other TD — also in the fourth quarter — was a 19-yard reception. McKinnon scored on a 10-yard run, and had a four-yard TD catch nullified by an O-line penalty."

This is all to say that McKinnon is the starter and likely to get most of the work if the game stays close, but again, the home team is favored by more than a touchdown so maybe it doesn't. And while it seems Wilson is more likely to vulture goal-line carries, McKinnon leads the team with nine red-zone carries, including three inside the 10-yard line (then again, none were inside the five, whereas Wilson has that one). Using a captain/MVP on McKinnon is much more likely to happen than Wilson, making the latter a more likely choice for those who make lots of lineups.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

San Francisco's passing attack will get a major upgrade Sunday night with the return of George Kittle ($9,400 DK, $13,500), the most expensive non-quarterback for San Francisco on both sites. Kittle suffered his injury in Week 1 against the Cardinals and hasn't played since, but a full return to practice this week will give the 49ers a huge boost, especially considering the absence of Mostert, who has the second-most receiving yards on the team, and Reed, who has the fourth-most. Kittle will surely be the most popular pass catcher from the team, even at his high price, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him be a popular captain/MVP play for those who want the multiplier on him while using Mullens in the flex. 

In addition to Kittle, the 49ers will welcome back wide receiver Deebo Samuel ($200 DK, $10,000 FD), who is a complete mis-price on DraftKings and will be very popular. Samuel hasn't played this season because of the injury, and he's expected to be eased back in, but he was the Niners' second-leading receiving last season, finishing 251 yards behind Kittle and 444 yards ahead of third-place Kendrick Bourne ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD). It's dumb to call Samuel a free square given we don't know what his workload will look like in his first game back, but just expect a lot of people to have him simply because he's so cheap. In fact, captaining him on DraftKings allows you to roster the five highest-priced players on the slate with him, as his multiplied salary brings it to $300. Just know you're not going to be the only one with that idea.

Samuel's return could limit the opportunities for Bourne and Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD), the two leading active receivers in terms of yardage this season. Bourne leads the active members of the team in targets (16), receptions (10), receiving yards (164), air yards (195) and aDOT (12.2), so it's a tad puzzling that he's cheaper than Aiyuk, who has seven catches on 11 targets for 91 yards (80 air yards and 7.3 aDOT) through three games. But looking closer understand why, Aiyuk didn't play in Week 1 and is coming off a really solid game when he caught five of eight targets for 70 yards and rushed three times for 31 yards and a touchdown. There's plenty of excitement about Aiyuk, and even though he is more expensive, it seems more likely people will gravitate toward him over Bourne, especially if they're going to play Samuel for the salary savings. A full San Francisco passing stack seems silly without Kittle, but theoretically it's a way to differentiate in large field tournaments. 

Given his usage through three games and Samuel's return, it seems unlikely that Trent Taylor ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD) will get much attention, and the same applies to Dante Pettis ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) if he's even active. We also can't forget about Mohamed Sanu ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD), but he seems like someone only MME players will really think about.

And we can't completely ignore Ross Dwelley ($2,200 DK, $6,000 FD) just because Kittle is back (though most people can definitely ignore him), and Kyle Juszczyk ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) should certainly be in the MME player pool too. But those who make one or few lineups probably shouldn't go down this path.

The Eagles side is likely to be a bit more condensed, with Zach Ertz ($7,200 DK, $12,500 FD) their most reliable player, leading their active receivers in targets (20), receptions (15), receiving yards (130) and air yards (194), while wideout Greg Ward ($5,000 DK, $9,500) is tied with him for receiving touchdowns; unfortunately, that number is one. Ward sits atop of the Eagles' wide receiver depth chart thanks to Jeffery and and Jackson's absences, and trailing him are John Hightower ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) and Deontay Burnett ($6,000 FD), who is not in the DraftKings player pool. This assumes Arcega-Whiteside doesn't play because of his doubtful injury designation due to a calf injury. Can you see why Ertz and Ward could be popular and why the Eagles are 7.5-point underdogs? Captaining/MVPing any of the Eagles' pass catchers should be pretty contrarian, and it certainly will be if it's anyone but Ertz or Ward. A full Eagles' passing stack with Wentz as a captain is a reasonable contrarian lineup build, but it's tough to get overly excited about it.

KICKERS

Given the Eagles' expected offensive struggles, we could see some popularity for Jake Elliott ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) for those who think the Eagles can at least move the ball far enough to get him into field-goal range. On the flip side, the expectation is that the 49ers will be able to move the ball, and if you think enough drives come up short of the goal line then Robbie Gould ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) provides a decent floor, scoring double-digit fantasy points in two of three games. Kickers are almost always played for floor instead of ceiling, but they make more sense in that respect on DraftKings than FanDuel, as they are more expensive than players like Aiyuk and Bourne and just cheaper than Ward on the latter site.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers defense ($5,600 DK) is missing a number of players due to injuries, but they are still decently priced against Wentz, who threw two interceptions in all three games and lost one of two fumbles, and he's been sacked more than all but two quarterbacks in the league. Needless to say, the Niners defense, which forced four turnovers and had five sacks in their three games, could be a reasonable target in cash games, and its priced similarly to Bourne and Ward, who need volume to really pay off.

The Eagles defense ($4,400) is coming off a monster eight-sack performance against the Bengals, but they still haven't picked off a pass and recorded just one fumble recovery, while the 49ers have allowed eight sacks through three games. It's a more differential move, and one most aren't likely to take in this game. If anything, the 49ers defense could be captained as much as the Eagles defense is rostered, so if you want to play for chaos, go captain that Eagles defense!